It's not exactly surprising to hear EA Chief Financial Officer Eric Brown say that we won't see the "sharp and distinct console transition like we've seen in the past." It's a notion we've heard before and something that THQ boss Brian Farrell explained a couple years back, dividing the current cycle into three distinct sub-cycles: handheld, Wii and another group of Xbox 360 with PS3.
Brown's issue had more to do with pricing, noting that half the PS2's sales occurred after the console hit $150, which the PS3 at $300 is nowhere close to. Comparing it to the last console cycle, Brown doesn't feel pricing has come down to where the publisher would have expected it to. Given the amount of investment required in the current round of HD gaming, it's unlikely we'll see publishers wanting to invest heavily into whatever's next -- especially in this economy.
[Via IndustryGamers]
Reader Comments (35)
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:10PM (Unverified) said
just got the email for the new uncharted 2 multiplayers pack. just leting you know
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Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:12PM maveric101 said
i get why they want to put off a whole new round of console launches for a bit, and i'm alright with that, to a degree. i like my 360 and it has some good-looking and great-playing games, but i don't want to be using it forever. i hope new consoles don't come any later than 2015 like was rumored.
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Posted: Feb 24th 2010 11:04PM Rooshma said
I can deal with waiting for a while, as there's almost always more optimization that can be done. I do worry, however, that if launches come too staggered, or come gradually -- some sort of PS3.5 or what have you -- consoles may lose what has made them such a viable platform: uniformity. Having the 'Nextbox' while the PS3 (or vice versa) is still being sold would likely hinder one or come at the tradeoff of performance on the other. Basically, though I understand the allure of high-end PC gaming (top-of-the-line performance), I don't think the general populace does (upgrades more than once every five years), and in many ways I agree with them.
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Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:14PM arnavdesai said
2012- Xbox Nxt
2013 fall PS4
32nm or 28nm will be very stable by then and graphics 40nm(heck even 28nm) will be stable so it will make sense for Microsoft to start building the next generation. They have to however continue selling Xbox360 @ around 100$ for another 2 years after that though. However, I speculate that they will introduce 100% backwards compatibility which will allow developers to continue making games for the huge 360 platform
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2013 fall PS4
32nm or 28nm will be very stable by then and graphics 40nm(heck even 28nm) will be stable so it will make sense for Microsoft to start building the next generation. They have to however continue selling Xbox360 @ around 100$ for another 2 years after that though. However, I speculate that they will introduce 100% backwards compatibility which will allow developers to continue making games for the huge 360 platform
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:20PM maveric101 said
? 32 nm is already "stable;" intel's newest chips (which have been shipping in computers for a while) are 32 nm.
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Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:22PM sonicspike41 said
Nexbox (Because Nextbox doesn't roll off the tongue as nicely)
PS4 (Not Playstation 4, just PS4)
Nintendo (That's it, just Nintendo. Not Nintendo Wii or Nintendo Entertainment System, just Nintendo. Everyone already calls the Wii "the Nintendo" anyways.)
Just throwing out my ideas for their names.
Reply
PS4 (Not Playstation 4, just PS4)
Nintendo (That's it, just Nintendo. Not Nintendo Wii or Nintendo Entertainment System, just Nintendo. Everyone already calls the Wii "the Nintendo" anyways.)
Just throwing out my ideas for their names.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:37PM arnavdesai said
In my defense, I did say very stable. Consoles unlike chipmakers cannot afford to waste any chips in a process since any half broken chip is no good to them.
Chipmakers in general can bin and also use half a working chip and sell it at a lesser cost.
So when Microsoft contacts IBM(360 chip designer/fabricater) or Intel(rumored with Larrabee or derivative), they will want a certain guarantee on the yield of their chips which leads to fabricaters in turn relying for an extremely reliable process. So while 32nm might have a high enough yield for selling Intel CPUs or 40nm for graphics(AMD/Nvidia) they might not be enough for a company like Microsoft or Sony which dont generally do their chip design in house. On top of IBM or Intel they would also have to contract ATi or Nvidia in designing their own graphic processor.
In Microsoft's case they have chosen to develop with the DirectX architecture in mind(which leads to easier to develop paths for developers) so chip designers could use basic building blocks of their pre-existing cards. 360 was a derivative of Dx9 and I expect the next Xbox to be a derivative of 11 or even 12 if Windows 8 keeps it schedule and releases late next year.
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Chipmakers in general can bin and also use half a working chip and sell it at a lesser cost.
So when Microsoft contacts IBM(360 chip designer/fabricater) or Intel(rumored with Larrabee or derivative), they will want a certain guarantee on the yield of their chips which leads to fabricaters in turn relying for an extremely reliable process. So while 32nm might have a high enough yield for selling Intel CPUs or 40nm for graphics(AMD/Nvidia) they might not be enough for a company like Microsoft or Sony which dont generally do their chip design in house. On top of IBM or Intel they would also have to contract ATi or Nvidia in designing their own graphic processor.
In Microsoft's case they have chosen to develop with the DirectX architecture in mind(which leads to easier to develop paths for developers) so chip designers could use basic building blocks of their pre-existing cards. 360 was a derivative of Dx9 and I expect the next Xbox to be a derivative of 11 or even 12 if Windows 8 keeps it schedule and releases late next year.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:19PM maveric101 said
i don't see what great games and the next gen have to do with each other. there'll be great games no matter what happens.
as for new IP, i had a ton of fun with Mirror's Edge. the gameplay was so different to anything i had ever played before. i'm happy they're making a sequal; should fix any minor quibbles i had with it.
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as for new IP, i had a ton of fun with Mirror's Edge. the gameplay was so different to anything i had ever played before. i'm happy they're making a sequal; should fix any minor quibbles i had with it.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:26PM Randallmcginness said
I don't want new consoles... there are already still plenty of games I need to play and want more games to come out. I love my ps3 and want it to go strong for a few more years before Sony pops out the ps4.
I hope sony and xbox tell EA that their games shouldn't be so expensive.
Reply
I hope sony and xbox tell EA that their games shouldn't be so expensive.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 11:27PM maveric101 said
1) those games you need to play wouldn't disappear the second a new console came out.
2) those games you want to come out would still come out.
can we not all agree on 2015 for a new console generation? that'd be over five years from now, and 10 years since the current gen launched. that's a long ass time.
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2) those games you want to come out would still come out.
can we not all agree on 2015 for a new console generation? that'd be over five years from now, and 10 years since the current gen launched. that's a long ass time.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:32PM Def Zeppelin said
Next gen = $70 games. I hope they just improve on the ones we have for a while. This gen is the first with firmware updates and hopefully that will suffice. I'm definitely not going to get whatever's next right away like I have with the last few systems.
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Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:34PM arnavdesai said
In my defense, I did say very stable. Consoles unlike chipmakers cannot afford to waste any chips in a process since any half broken chip is no good to them.
Chipmakers in general can bin and also use half a working chip and sell it at a lesser cost.
So when Microsoft contacts IBM(360 chip designer/fabricater) or Intel(rumored with Larrabee or derivative), they will want a certain guarantee on the yield of their chips which leads to fabricaters in turn relying for an extremely reliable process. So while 32nm might have a high enough yield for selling Intel CPUs or 40nm for graphics(AMD/Nvidia) they might not be enough for a company like Microsoft or Sony which dont generally do their chip design in house. On top of IBM or Intel they would also have to contract ATi or Nvidia in designing their own graphic processor.
In Microsoft's case they have chosen to develop with the DirectX architecture in mind(which leads to easier to develop paths for developers) so chip designers could use basic building blocks of their pre-existing cards. 360 was a derivative of Dx9 and I expect the next Xbox to be a derivative of 11 or even 12 if Windows 8 keeps it schedule and releases late next year.
Reply
Chipmakers in general can bin and also use half a working chip and sell it at a lesser cost.
So when Microsoft contacts IBM(360 chip designer/fabricater) or Intel(rumored with Larrabee or derivative), they will want a certain guarantee on the yield of their chips which leads to fabricaters in turn relying for an extremely reliable process. So while 32nm might have a high enough yield for selling Intel CPUs or 40nm for graphics(AMD/Nvidia) they might not be enough for a company like Microsoft or Sony which dont generally do their chip design in house. On top of IBM or Intel they would also have to contract ATi or Nvidia in designing their own graphic processor.
In Microsoft's case they have chosen to develop with the DirectX architecture in mind(which leads to easier to develop paths for developers) so chip designers could use basic building blocks of their pre-existing cards. 360 was a derivative of Dx9 and I expect the next Xbox to be a derivative of 11 or even 12 if Windows 8 keeps it schedule and releases late next year.
Posted: Feb 25th 2010 12:02PM (Unverified) said
I gotta agree with you. Getting tired of everyone having an excuse not to innovate. I want better tech! hehe. =)
Reply
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:36PM calgaryaltahotmailcom said
good, i'm nowhere near ready to invest in a new system and library.
Reply
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:40PM Vegeta has a ps3 said
Well technically Mass Effect wouldn't be considered a new IP anymore.
Reply
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:42PM Vegeta has a ps3 said
@Dv8th
But it's still a new IP because it's not part of any existing franchise.
Reply
But it's still a new IP because it's not part of any existing franchise.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:48PM seishino said
A. Handhelds have always been on a independent "cycle." For years that cycle resembled an ugly grey brick that had fallen in the mud.
B. While firmware upgradability has helped prolong the current console cycle, there is still a lot that could be developed. For one, games "do" 1080p, but they don't actually generate it. For the most part, they generate 720p (or less) and scale it up. Two, physics processing still isn't fast enough to do anything other than crude box collisions. Three, motion controllers. They're not just things that can be easily bolted on in the middle of the lifecycle. Four, 4GB is not enough for everybody, and the PS3's paultry chip-to-chip communication rate is not enough for anybody. And Five, visuals are not about how many 1080p frames you can push out (the NES is strong enough to push 1080p / 60 FPS of one color), they're about the interior complexity of the image. We can definitely use more power for more full-screen effects, filters, polys, etc.
And did you notice the amount of RAM in these things? The 360 has a whopping 512 MB of RAM. You could barely run Windows 7 on that. My kingdom to his the 4 GB barrier on a console.
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B. While firmware upgradability has helped prolong the current console cycle, there is still a lot that could be developed. For one, games "do" 1080p, but they don't actually generate it. For the most part, they generate 720p (or less) and scale it up. Two, physics processing still isn't fast enough to do anything other than crude box collisions. Three, motion controllers. They're not just things that can be easily bolted on in the middle of the lifecycle. Four, 4GB is not enough for everybody, and the PS3's paultry chip-to-chip communication rate is not enough for anybody. And Five, visuals are not about how many 1080p frames you can push out (the NES is strong enough to push 1080p / 60 FPS of one color), they're about the interior complexity of the image. We can definitely use more power for more full-screen effects, filters, polys, etc.
And did you notice the amount of RAM in these things? The 360 has a whopping 512 MB of RAM. You could barely run Windows 7 on that. My kingdom to his the 4 GB barrier on a console.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 11:21PM maveric101 said
how much you wanna bet all these people saying "good, i don't want a new console" will be singing a different tune come 2014?
Reply
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 10:55PM (Unverified) said
The industry is, in every way, desperately begging for something like OnLive to bring solutions to the problems it faces. It's clear that it and inevitable competitors will be the ultimate replacement for all console cycles. Connect to the matrix and enjoy an ever changing, growing, and improving experience. The final answer.
Reply
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 11:40PM (Unverified) said
You are the Onlive CEO, I presume?
When we get an internet infrastructure like Japan or South Korea, than we can start talking about Onlive.
Reply
When we get an internet infrastructure like Japan or South Korea, than we can start talking about Onlive.
Posted: Feb 24th 2010 11:56PM (Unverified) said
The average internet connection speed in the US last year was 5.1 Mbps, 0.1Mbps more than the recommended speed to enjoy games in 720p at 60 fps. OnLive is here now and appeals to the masses. Casual users will be hooked the moment they give the free demo a try with a couple clicks in their browser and are greeted with better graphics than they have ever seen in person. The hardcore will understand the benefit when they start to notice OnLive renders better graphics than any machine they will ever own and when they see community interaction not possible any other way.
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Posted: Feb 24th 2010 11:49PM Otimus said
The problem with this gen has been an overfocus on "High end" things, which in turn, resulted in very high prices and as well as an unwillingness to drop prices low enough for the true mass market to catch on in the initial stages.
Like, there's inflation. Yeah, okay.
But when last gen was on it's 5th year, you could get all three systems for $440.
This gen, on it's fifth year, all three systems cost between $700 at the cheapest and $850 at the highest. That's absurd.
Microsoft, for example, has been REALLY unwilling to really drop it's prices. They go OUT OF THEIR WAY to keep their high price.
Sony, on the other hand, simply started with an insanely high price, and just brought it down to what it should have cost at launch (from a logical point, I know it actually couldn't cost that much.)
Nintendo, on the other hand, has the right pricing, but the hardware doesn't match it's price.
All it really did was segment the market. Severely.
This gen, we've seen games take forever to come out, a lot of things are just coming along slowly.
I mean, ask yourself, right now...
Does it REALLY feel like this gen is on it's fifth year?
No, it doesn't. It still kind of feels like it's second year.
...and that's a problem.
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Like, there's inflation. Yeah, okay.
But when last gen was on it's 5th year, you could get all three systems for $440.
This gen, on it's fifth year, all three systems cost between $700 at the cheapest and $850 at the highest. That's absurd.
Microsoft, for example, has been REALLY unwilling to really drop it's prices. They go OUT OF THEIR WAY to keep their high price.
Sony, on the other hand, simply started with an insanely high price, and just brought it down to what it should have cost at launch (from a logical point, I know it actually couldn't cost that much.)
Nintendo, on the other hand, has the right pricing, but the hardware doesn't match it's price.
All it really did was segment the market. Severely.
This gen, we've seen games take forever to come out, a lot of things are just coming along slowly.
I mean, ask yourself, right now...
Does it REALLY feel like this gen is on it's fifth year?
No, it doesn't. It still kind of feels like it's second year.
...and that's a problem.
Posted: Feb 25th 2010 12:47AM kmcroc said
Here's a concept, how about making games that people want or must have. instead of worrying when the console are going to drop in price. as a consumer the console price has nothing to do with the game i buy. how about you create a game of quality or worthy of the $64.19 price tag, then people will buy it. games are like accessories now a days, seeing what these consoles can do these days.if the game it self is not worth getting,people will not get it. those days of console only playing games has gone by the waist side. it's not like back in its hey day, like when all you can do is play a game. now these consoles offer much more. so it's you who must lower your price or create a product people want to buy.(jmo)
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Posted: Feb 25th 2010 1:24AM davek said
I'm rather dissapointed that Nintendo still don't have a HD unit out yet. With the price of GPUs falling so much in the last 4 years, they could certainly afford to offer HD for exactly the same price. Even cheaper, really.
4 years ago, they had an excuse with the lack of HD sets in the market. Now, there's plenty of sets around. The Wii is now looking dated in its graphical clarity.
Get with the times, Nintendo!
Reply
4 years ago, they had an excuse with the lack of HD sets in the market. Now, there's plenty of sets around. The Wii is now looking dated in its graphical clarity.
Get with the times, Nintendo!
Posted: Feb 25th 2010 4:53AM (Unverified) said
I kinda feel that if the economy had held up then nintendo would have announced a Wii HD by now, but maybe with the bad economy they're holding on until the launch can be massive.
Reply
Posted: Feb 25th 2010 11:56AM (Unverified) said
I think things have been pretty great on the new IP font lately. Batman, Darksiders, and Borderlands were some of my favorite games in recent years and all new IPs. But i agree that new IPs is crucial to the continued success of the industry. Gotta keep us gamers on our toes if you want to keep our wallets open. ;)
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