Analyst: Kinect sales could top 4 million in 2010

@Ezio Auditore da Firenze Sorry I don't see this pushing 4 million units in less than one year. If they even sell 1 million I'd be surprised, come christmas most xbox gamers that are kids are going to want Halo, COD, Fable, as examples not Kinect.

@The angry pro consumer gaming ga I know, man, I want to feel the same way.

But I have a hunch this thing is going to surprise us.

@Ezio Auditore da Firenze How can a "Hardcore" gamer not pick this up? I thought the whole point of a hardcore gamer was to experience EVERYTHING games have to offer. Sure they can have preferences but they should be willing to try anything and not judge it until the game has been beat.

@Ezio Auditore da Firenze I'll tell you another thing, I'm working in retail while working on another degree and parents will constantly asks us sales persons for our opinions. Most of us in our store are hadcore gamers and we will not be giving good opinions on Kinect. Heck one guy was selected for the Kinect beta and we're all going over to his house to try it out once set up, but considering there's NOTHING we want to play other than TRY Dance Central its not looking good for Kinect.

@Rocketman36 I'm talking hardcore in the way that it's usually used to define someone:

Those that look down on casual games and stuff like this.

@Ezio Auditore da Firenze I know but they need their own name :D

@Rocketman36 No being hardcore GAMER means you like playing games and good ones at that not crap like kinectimals or that stupid game where you just flail about for 5 mins and say "f*ck it", to just sit back down and grab your controller to play some REACH.

@Rocketman36 Also I'm not going to pay $150 to TRY something that looks lame and it seems a lot of people aren't about to either.

@The angry pro consumer gaming ga Yes but a gamer dosen't make the assumption that Kinectimals is a bad game when they have not tried if for a extended period of time.

@Rocketman36 If that's your definition of a Hardcore Gamer, than I can obviously tell you are not a hardcore gamer. Some of us have been gaming for over 20+ years, we know what we like and we know what looks like some tacked on B.S gimmick.

@The angry pro consumer gaming ga Ok so you feel that your 20+ years of experience justifies simply ignoring a few form of interacting with games. I understand where you are coming from but many people simply dismiss the device instead of that games. I can grantee you there will be atleast 1 good game for kinect. We both have our opinions and a discussion over the internet isn't going to effect us in any way.

I hope you have a fine day.

@Rocketman36 We need to focus on getting joystiq a edit button :(

@Rocketman36 Dude in over 20years I've seen the Saturn, Atari Lynx, 32X, Nomad, DreamCast, HD DVD add on, etc all failed and all had bad press like what Kinect is getting history repeats it self. Also I will have a nice day playing Halo Reach, Fable 3, GT5, LBP2, and why? Because I'll have $150 more to spend one AWESOME games this Christmas instead a camera that has less functions each day that goes by.

@Rocketman36
I couldn't disagree more. Matter of fact, a person can play the same game for 5 years and be as "hardcore" as they come. Blizzard makes that point every time they release a game.

@The angry pro consumer gaming ga All had bad press but the DC, but we all new it was going to get killed by Sony.

@Rocketman36

I disagree that a "hardcore gamer" should be one who tries everything that gaming has to offer. It sounds like this person would pick up anything indiscriminately and play it just because he can. Which means that he has too much time and too much money on his hands. Let's call him the "spoiled gamer."

@ben linus - I don't think so. DB makes a thousand posts in the span of a month when he comes around.

@TAPCG - We didn't "know" that the Dreamcast was going to get destroyed by the PS2. How could we have predicted an entirely new media format launching into the stratosphere and taking the PS2 along for the ride? Take the massive interest in DVD's out of the equation, and the Dreamcast was strong against the PS2.

That's completely beside the point though. Getting back to Kinect, I've heard people (non-gamers) voice the opinion that they want a Kinect for Dance Central. If the number of people that bought Just Dance on the Wii is any indication, I'd say the market for Kinect is pretty big, if only for that one game initially. As "hardcore gamers" (for what that term is worth once you are in the real world) we might not be thrilled that Sony's Move isn't getting the bulk of the attention, but the reality is that the casual market has absolutely no idea what Move is or why they should buy it.

Having said that, four million units is probably out of the question. Microsoft is selling 300-400k units a month. Step that up to holiday numbers, and you've still got about a million a month (they sold two million 360's in November and December of last year when both are added together). If Kinect comes out in November, that is one and a half months or so to move four million units. Assuming the bundle sales stay relatively constant with projections based on last year, they'd need to sell two million plus stand alone Kinect units, and that is assuming they can move a decent number of Kinect bundles. If half of last years numbers (one million) go toward a Kinect bundle, Microsoft would need to sell three million stand alone Kinect units (at one hundred and fifty dollars a pop) in order to hit four million. His numbers predict an enormous if not unprecedented demand for a peripheral though, and I just can't see it happening at the current price point.

/Pachter

@Schlecht

I think what they neglected to report was the prediction that next year MS will definitely sell 40 million 360's.

Which make a prediction of 10% of the users buying Kinect more likely.

Otherwise it's a silly number.

@Schlecht One thing for all the Pachter hate, he has never said anything this oblivious.

@Schlecht
What I think what will happen is Microsoft will sell 4 million Kinects in its life time.

@Schlecht
I think people are underestimating the power of COD Black Ops...the releases are 5 days apart. What kid won't be saving up for COD and buy a kinect?

@Nomi (Hmm, it seems the reply button on the iPhone app doesn't work all the time)
Anyways, I'm not buying Black Ops either lol. I didn't like the multiplayer in the last two CoD games, and this one looks like they took all the cheap stuff and multiplied it. However, in October there are at least 5 games I'm going to get day-of-release, so that's where my money is going. (Not like I'd buy Kinect if I had the money anyways.)

@Ryuk Exactly well put on Move, I think it will sell better because you have tactile feedback, there are hardcore games coming out for it. Not to mention as much negative PR for all the "lies" MS was spouting about all the features for Kinect that got stripped out.

@Ryuk

Take a look at preorders, and right now you'll see that Kinect has nearly double the preorders of Move, and that's wtih Move 6 weeks out and Kinect 13 weeks out.

Simple math tells me Kinect will do better.

@Axcalibur

He's saying it'll sell 4 million in 2 months.....

excuse me,

pffftt hahahahahahahaha

I can't even keep a straight face just thinking it.

@Axcalibur

I don't know if it will do 4 million (i'm personally leaning towards "no"), but one thing that Microsoft has over Sony is how much advertising they've dumped into this. As long as they can convey that kinect is worth $150 to the general public, it will sell.

Both companies should be aiming to sell this to the casual market. Sony's concern should be on how they can convince people that move isn't just another wiimote, but so far, i haven't seen them succeed in that. If they drop it out there like another eye-toy peripheral, then it'll do poorly.

@DangerMouse001

Watch some of the tech demos for the move, especially the gecko one.

@DangerMouse001

My thought process is this; Sony will piggy back off the success of the Wii to earn sales while Microsoft will have a steeper climb to convince consumers that this is a product they want. We've already seen a Kevin Butler commercial essentially mocking the Wii-mote in comparison the the PS3 Move - this will likely continue. They'll market it as a high def more capable Wii. And I also wouldn't be surprised if a large chuck of Wii games will now be ported to the PS3, just with better graphics. In some cases, this might actually be worth a purchase for me, since I know I enjoy the Wii, and would love some Wii games with an updated HD look. However, with Kinect, Microsoft has completely failed to showcase ONE game that I would be interested in. The closest they've got is the neat DVD controls, however since I've upgraded to Bluray, I have no need for my 360 for DVD.

@Deezul AwT I was born in the 70's and I want my kids to grow up with Mario and Link not some imaginary animal that they'll mostly get bored with by the second week.

@The angry pro consumer gaming ga

So you prefer imaginary plumbers and guys in tights?

@(Unverified)

Hi there anal dwelling butt monkey!

@pickupdoctor

"Sure some people will buy it but I don't see a guy that goes GU GU GA GA over Halo or Modern Warfare showing up at Walmart to pick up Kinect, he will buy Halo and Madern Warfare games and go home happy with $30 bucks still in his pocket. "

These people you describe already own an Xbox 360, subscribe to XBL and constantly buy games for Xbox. The point of Kinect isn't to sell an accessory to existing 360 owners, Microsoft already has the Halo and CoD players on the hook. The point of Kinect is to compete with the Wii, to steal the Wii's audience. The point of Kinect is to go after the consumers that made the Wii the number 1 console of this generation and the fastest selling game console in history.

These Wii fitness dance and party games are selling tens of millions of units. Many of them are outselling games like Gears of War and Halo. For Microsoft to continue to ignore this market of Wii consumers would be idiotic. Some people would rather play a celebrity or brand name gym's Yoga game than saw aliens in half with a chainsaw.

At least Microsoft isn't forcing the Kinect system on anyone the way that Nintendo did with the Wii controller. You should be thankful that Xbox 360 at least comes with a normal controller in the box.

@armageddon
"I'm an actual gamer" really....just really

@armageddon Totally, just like the sega saturn. I just told my friends they were living in the past.