Greenberg: Kinect sales won't depend on review scores

by Richard Mitchell on Oct 29th 2010 8:00PM

Speaking to Eurogamer, Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg said that he expects Kinect to sell more units during its launch period than the Wii did when it launched in 2006. "We'll definitely sell more sensors than the Wii sold when it launched or the Xbox 360 sold when it launched," said Greenberg, though he doesn't necessarily believe that sales will be dependent on high review scores. He noted that Kinect offers "different types of titles and experiences" than what most core users are used to.

"The correlation between a review score for Halo: Reach and sales is very high, but Kinect Sports is more about just having fun," said Greenberg, adding that Microsoft would certainly like to see high review scores, though he doesn't expect "the same type of correlation between reviews and actual sales of the game." Greenberg's comments echo similar comments from EA's Peter Moore last year, when he stated that casual Wii game sales are more dependent on Amazon user reviews than Metacritic.

Check out the whole interview for Greenberg's thoughts on Steel Batallion, Black Ops versus Halo: Reach and PlayStation Move, which he doesn't see as direct competition for Kinect

Tags: Aaron-Greenberg, Kinect, Kinect-Sports, microsoft, xbox

Reader Comments (65)

He might be right. I post on a messageboard that has a mix of posters. Some woman started a thread about the new X-box Kinex thing. A couple women posted in the thread they were getting it for Xmas. I'm pretty sure they won't be reading review scores. They saw it on Ellen or something and now they want it.

Probably be like the Wii though. They'll buy it and one or two games and that's it.

@Hoffer

Whilevthe Wii has attracted everyone, and I mean everyone, even the hardcore (see: Super Mario Galaxy 2), does anyone honestly see Kinect providing really anything for our audience? Just based on MS's mindset with the product. And I'm talking Kinect-exclusive games here, so Child of Eden, which will be incredible, doesn't count. Milo, despite what people say, is probably, unfortunately, not gonna see the light of day, not anytime soon anyway.

But Nintendo had old, lasting franchises that backed them, allowing faith to still remain with our audience. But what does MS have? Does anyone really see Halo making it to Kinect after Bungie's reluctance? Maybe Fable will show, and that could be really interesting, but that's one thing. And then you have Dance Central, and I trust Ludwig's confidence in the game, so that's two things, but the former isn't even guarranteed.

What more is there to say? (Sorry about the essay.)

@Shadowbender Old franchises is something I hate about companies. We need more new IPs.

That being said, Kinect already has games slted for releasae for the "hardcore" crowd.

Steel Battalion and Child of Eden among them.

@Hoffer

As far as a money making venture I think Kinect will be a gold mine for MS. Think about all the soccer moms that get tired of their workout games after a month. Then they see a little notification that says they can download a whole new workout routine for 400 MS points or whatever. That's cheaper than buying a whole new game and infinitely cheaper than paying to got to an actually yoga/aerobics class.The Wii didn't have that kind of DLC focused pipeline so the potential for incremental revenue is greater for MS whether people buy a ton of individual games or not.

Makes sense. No one I know has any clue what reviews said about Wii Sports or any of those types of games on the Wii, yet we enjoyed em together anyways (for about a month)

Will there be review scores for the actual Kinect device, or does he mean the first batch of games? I don't remember seeing reviews for Move anywhere (or maybe I have just been in a coma for the last months :-o)

Sad but true.

I have to say, I appreciate his honesty about the way Microsoft expects Kinect to sell.

"Listen, we aren't trying to make games people will like, we just want them to buy them so we can make a little extra cash off of this fad."

@Lerkero
Poetry.

@Lerkero exactly, spot on..

That's true. People won't care about what each of the games scored. Move's launch games were nit scored very well but the Move has been selling really well. It seems it's initially about the experience and the hardware. Just getting it into homes is the goal.

@Uncle Jesse Yeah, I agree. The Move games got bad reviews and yet they did okay.

@Uncle Jesse

Yeah. but the difference between Move and Kinect is that Move has some normal games with enhancements, like Heavy Rain and Resident Evil.

@Uncle Jesse

Actually, the Move hardware reviews were mostly pretty positive, while the software reviews were average or lower:

http://features.metacritic.com/features/2010/playstation-move-reviews/

@Uncle Jesse - Joystiq reviewed the move games really well.

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/01/sports-champions-review/ -- 4.5 / 5 (9 out of 10)

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/01/racquet-sports-review/ --> 4/5 (8 out of 10)

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/01/tumble-review/ --> 4.5/5 (9 out of 10)

Kotaku also pretty much praised Move.

I wouldnt call those scores bad.

How many Wiis were sold during launch?

I think hes right. Review scores will not effect their sales. The audience they are targeting does not read video game websites or look at metacritic (gaming side) I don't know why but I feel positive about Kinect (sale wise) but I've been wrong so many times on so many things in the industry so what do I know?

@ben linus

Because everyone in the gaming press will bitch and whine if they don't send them stuff.

@ben linus
Bad reviews won't hurt sales, good reviews will only help sales.

It's true because this is Microsoft's way into the casual market. Those type of gamers don't care about review scores. If it's fun to play with their families/friends they'll get it.

He honestly thinks that Halo wouldn't do as well with bad review scores? Maybe it would sell a little bit lower, sure. But it's Halo, and like James Ransom-Wikey said, it's Halo, your gonna buy it anyway. You'd think Microsoft would know their own exclusive title.

As for Kinect, soccer moms don't read review scores, they know they're gonna take it big in that part of the market. Its blatantly obvious they want that piece of the pie, which is why that's all they care about now. What stumps me is why MS is acting like this is a revolution. Soccer moms don't care about revolutions, they care about what will entertain at parties.

I don't see why people are unhappy about something that has the potential to bring more people into the market. The video game industry can use profit generated from casual titles to fund core titles, like how Ubisoft is doing.

@Shadowbender

the problem with having soccer moms as a target is the per console games purchased ratio for kinect it will be an expected 2 or 3. in comparison, the 360 as a whole is over 12. in numbers for a company this means that the software sales will not make up for any hardware loss from kinect, whereas the games more than make up for the expense on the 360 (one billion dollars in profit from xbl and games). and thus they must make the hardware cheaper to manufacture or sell it at a higher price.

so when microsoft was targeting hardcore gamers (think natal) it was supposed to go for under 100 and do twice as much. as soon as they realized only casuals would buy it, they jacked the price AND took down the functionality, a financially viable decision for the company, a disaster for us joystiq-ers.

Is that just padding for "we know these games will tank in the Meta-critic so I'm calling it out now that it doesn't matter to save face"? Well Mr. Greenberg, I'm on to your schemes. I used to love Microsoft reps, but this guy has just been gloating in a not-so-impressive way. Thumbs down.

I think for core gamers Halo reviews would matter, but for Kinect's launch 'target' demo, less than glowing reviews won't hurt.

It make sense as I'm not sure how many soccer mom's and casual gamers go to many of these review sites.

I would think that Greenberg also thinks that core gamers wouldn't review Kinect launch titles fairly. just guessing.

Uh... more than the Wii or the 360 at launch? Is he kidding? I sure hope so.

I suppose if they only count the ones sold on launch day, which was filled with shortages for all current gen systems, then maybe they can ship more Kinect units than Wii or 360 shipped on day one. But over the course of two or three months... no way. Not a chance in hell.

I consider launch the time it takes for a system not to be sold out every time you walk into a store, up to a reasonable point in time of course. If Kinect isn't sold out when I walk into Game Stop, or Best Buy, or wherever I have to go running errands later next week, then I'm going to go ahead and say that it isn't going to sell as much as he's saying it will. We'll just have to wait and see.

That being said he makes good points about the fact that its target audience doesn't care about reviews. Hell, I doubt the majority of them even know that people review games anyways.

""The correlation between a review score for Halo: Reach and sales is very high, but Kinect Sports is more about just having fun,""

Wasn't Reach fun for gamers?

Greenberg is correct that Kinect sales won't depend on reviews; Kinect sales will depend on how quickly the Jersey Shore 'Battle Dance' game is finished.

My buddy's wife already plunked down 1/2 the price of a Kinect just because she wants that workout 'game'.

So he's basically saying "We don't care if our games are shit, they will sell!'

I don't even own a 360, but I want this to be awesome... It'd give me a reason to pick one up for sure.

Honestly i think i may be the only one who doesn't like this , I don't hate it but meh.

@ben linus Well he is right for primary sales - but of course they would like to convince the so call hard core players as well. But the average person does not read game review magazines or websites... they just don't.

I pre-ordered mine for my kids - so reviews obviously didn't mean anything to me either. The products ultimate success will be based on how well it lives up to expectations.

Of course it wont, all it needs are casuals who will wave at the screen for a month and then forget this thing ever existed.

Meanwhile fanboys are raging to see which is "superior" (read: sell more) as if their pitiful lives depended on how much money a huge corporation makes.

I'm grumpy today.

I will admit, this article made me laugh.

Microsoft is quite ambitious these days. Sell more than the wii...pfft.

My wife is interested in this product as a replacement for Wii Hottest Party 3 and its dancemat, which she used as part of her exercise routine. Wii has no DLC, so of course the music selection became stale, and a dance mat or Wiimote probably cannot compare with the Kinect sensor in terms of immersion.

Microsoft is probably on the ball with their assessment of Kinect. Will hordes of 'casuals' rush out to buy the 360 AND Kinect combo? Probably some, but not Wii-like numbers. However, there are millions of 'casuals' whose husbands or fathers own a 360, and may convince said gamers to add the Kinect unit to the existing console.

@matrices

I'm in this boat. I own a 360 and now my wife told me she wants Kinect and Dance Central for Christmas. She has never played any of the 360 games that use a standard controller.

@ben linus

I don't think they did send the hardware out to reviewers.

Well, the Wii sold only 600,000 units in its first 8 days in "the Americas" according to Wikipedia. So yeah, I certainly hope the Kinect can beat that. Of course, the Wii hype machine rapidly built-up and created a 3-year sales monster. I don't really expect to see that with Kinect or Move. The motion-based gaming world is still smoldering from when the Wii lit it on fire. I don't really sense a huge demand to pay for it again so soon, especially when the "upgrade" (HD video, more horsepower) will be mostly meaningless to its casual buyers.

Although they got Ellen to use it. Get Oprah, and you might have magic.

@ben linus : It's pretty sad that a company has to make excuses BEFORE the product even hits store shelves. Shows how much they believe in their product, or DON'T........

Yep. Two words: Just Dance.

He obviously doesn't understand how reviews work. Reviews are about more than "how purdy is the game." They are mainly about "is the game fun?" As they should be.

If the game sucks, the game sucks. Reviewers will mark it down for sucking, and hopefully, people won't get drawn into buying a sucky game due to slick marketing.

@JCDoe

We might not, but the majority of people who they expect to pick this up aren't even going to be paying attention to gaming reviews. Gaming reviews of which mostly cater to people like us.

Case in point: Just Dance 1 had a metacritic score of below 49 and was a smash hit. Enough to warrent a sequel which has a metacritic score of 74; good, but not the score of which you'd expect of something which held the UK charts to ransom for most of 2010

@Crayola Q Pants ESQ

I think its safe to say that Just Dance was an anomaly. What other game with a 49 has done as well?

From what I've read, it doesn't even track movement very well. I know I personally wouldn't by a game like Just Dance unless I knew it "worked." Why it sold well, I can't say. But I can say this: keep giving casual gamers suck games, and eventually they're going to either find a new hobby or they're going to start checking reviews.

The fact is, there are some very well made casual games out there, like peggle and bejeweled. If someone wants to play a dancing game, DDR is at least highly accurate on inputs.

The question will be: does the Kinect work? If so, then I see things like Dance Revolution and whatever minigame collections doing (and scoring) well. If not, well, they might make money, but my dad always taught me not to steal.

This sounds suspiciously like 'we're going to get crappy reviews, so I'm saying now that scores don't matter. I don't want to hear Microsoft saying review scores don't matter a week before the product comes out.

"is more about just having fun" = "its ok for it to sucks and so has bad reviews"???

Sony called, they want their hubris back.

BECAUSE THERE WONT BE ANY!
HAR HAR GHAr HAR

well, I won't be buying it anyway.

@KillaPat it is already sold out in many places... It is being sold above retail on Amazon because of that little fact.

Also, I recommend that you guys actually read the linked review. It's not groundbreaking or anything, but once again goes to show that Euro journalists are somewhat more tart and less spineless than American journalists, even in gaming.

@matrices
This man speaks the truth:

'Eurogamer: What about Sony's rival technology, PlayStation Move? Can you describe what you think of it, without using the phrases "different offering", "we don't see it as direct competition" or "room in the marketplace for both"?'

is one of my favorite questions

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Kinect Sports

Greenberg: Kinect sales won't depend on review scores

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Posted: Oct 29th 2010 8:05PM Hoffer said

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