m3mnoch

good to see someone else figuring that out.

i was there 6 months ago:
http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/11/16/michael-pachter-is-wrong/#comment-5714

a' course, i also predicted the ps3 price and that the wii would sell more hardware than the 360.

/shrug

m3mnoch.

ha! that's the funniest thing i've read this morning. hecker's screwed now.

1) pro-wii folks hate him for the first statement.

2) anti-wii folks hate him for caving.

what a tool.

m3mnoch.

"Price cuts are nice, but Alot of folks wouldn't mind paying full price if Sony would just get some Killer Exclusive content for their system, Am I right?!!!"

you sure are. however, those exclusives don't come to a platform without an install-base.

m3mnoch.

yup. you're right miniboss. with 1080p on the consoles right now, you have to make that ol' triangle of pain choice:

model detail or framerate or 1080p.

pick two.

most devs like epic choose highly detailed models (sweet textures, poly-counts, etc.) and a snappy framerate.

because, really, the 30 people out there who have 1080p televisions really aren't going to buy enough copies to support the game by themselves.

m3mnoch.

"If the price of a PS3 dropped in the short term to a level perceived as 'affordable' or 'good value' by the mainstream public they'd instantly be eroding their own stand alone Blu-Ray market - why pay almost double for a Blu-Ray player when you can have a Blu-Ray player AND games consoel for half the money?"

jdoki. the term you're looking for is channel conflict. i wrote that very issue up over a year ago:
http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/


@resistance: fall of 360

"You know, its fun tearing apart your arguments"
glad you're having fun. the rest of us are still trying to figure out what the hell you're even talking about.

"Who cares how much it costs, its 170USD more retail – for a PS2 / blu-ray player with superior build. Don’t have to “work overtime” getting it changed when it conks out."
well. evidently everyone cares about how much it costs. it's called trickle-down.

with that high of a price-tag, sony can't afford price drops in any reasonable time (see the original post) and therefore, it can't ever get out of the early adopter phase. that means you don't have 20 million consoles out there. that means devs don't target your platform. that means you don't get any of the good games.

so, because the ps3 costs sony so much to build, it means you don't get any good games.

yes. you should care.


"Therefore? Its 700USD today versus 50 extra for the PS3 – by the time BR is 50 (2010?) the PS3 will be USD200."
did you miss the whole "stand-alones will fall faster" bit? so, by the time the premium ps3 is $500, stand-alone blu-ray players will be $300.


"So buy the PS2 – 1000+ games. PS3: One year late + 2 years extra support (as you saw in PS2 vs XBOX) = 3 years extra games."
uh. what the hell are you talking about? support for the xbox was dropped early because of console build-cost issues. sound like a familliar problem?


"Dead rising / Gears was released with a base of 6mn, R6 / GRAW with 3mn"
i don't see your point. so, the 360's launch games are better than the ps3's? call of duty 2 was launched with ZERO install base.

launch year games that are bought and paid for are not what we're talking about. we're talking about all of the okamis and guitar heroes and grand theft autos that are out there waiting to be made. and, they pick the console with the biggest install base.

from a developer's point of view, the biggest draw to a console is sales potential. do i roll with my new, risky ip on a console with an install base of 5 million units? or do i go with the console with 20 million units?

either way, same development cost. (i'm even nicely excluding the fact that tco of ps3 development is higher than the 360) more potential buyers.

that's obviously just for exclusives.


"Have you checked the gameplay vids? And they will get multiplayer when it reaches US – No buggy games (Like dead Rising) or shoddily made consoles from Sony"

so, wait. gameplay vids? you don't even have a ps3 yet you're defending it to the death? bwahahahahhahahha....


"Oh yes they do. GTA4, Assasins did not release in the 360 first year- maybe they were waiting for the PS3 to arrive?"
okay. by that logic, oblivion doens't count for the ps3 -- as it was "exclusive" to the 360. rs3: vegas doesn't count for the ps3. in fact, that means none of the launch games but resistance, riiiiiiidge racer, genji and gundam count for the ps3.

no. that's stupid.

ports don't count towards exclusivity.


"That’s..ummm…200 dollars for 4 years? There goes your cost advantage"

damn! your right!

tho, since you can get all those downloads on xbox live for free, you don't need to pay the $200 for the live subscription. tho, to help make your point, i'll show you other ways the "360 cost advantage disappears."

you're right, a 360 and 4 years of live -- cost advantage gone!

a 360 and 4 award-winning, exclusive games -- cost advantage gone!

a 360 and 100 starbucks lattes -- cost advantage gone!

a 360, a hooker and a bag of blow -- cost advantage gone!

do you see the difference, with the $600 the ps3 costs you, a 360 owner can have their console PLUS other stuff. best of all? they get to CHOOSE what to spend that extra $200 on! they're not just sitting there in the dark, wiping down their dust-magnet while NOT playing games.


"That’s 2 awards for each hour of gameplay, wow."
i forgot, remind me again with how many awards ps3 games are getting nominated for? 1/10th as many as the nintendo wii?

that's okay because, you know, the ps3 hasn't been on the market that long.


"Mostly out by 2007…You remember the stories about halo 3 being out for the PS3 launch right?"
uh. i remember bill gates saying that. and the next day bungie slapped him down.

and mostly out by 2007? you realize that all the communications coming from ps3 developers (aside from "we want to develop for the 360") has been either "delay" announcements or "sorry, no 1080p" announcements, right?

speaking of, how bad is that, really? that 3rd party ps3 stallwarts like kojima are saying "i want to develop for the 360" while other 3rd party devs are saying "the ps3 is a disaster."

how is it that you reconcile that?

m3mnoch.

"So 360 has just ONE Good exclusive, and you are happy with that - whereas PS3 has 6-7 great exclusives in its first year (not 2-3), and you think that not enough?"

you know... i'm lookin' and i just don't seem to see the part where i said gears of war was the only exclusive. tho, it did get nominated for an outrageous 10 aias awards. oh, and viva was nominated for six.

so, that's 2 exclusives for 16 nominations for the xbox 360. you know, i'm looking, and i just don't see any of these "great ps3 exclusives" you're talking about being nominated.

because, you know, the wii has been out just as long and has twilight princess and wii sports nominated all over the place. those are exclusives, aren't they?

gosh. i must have missed gundam's nomination. i just must be looking in the wrong place.

wait! i found it! resistance is nominated for a darling 2 awards!

oh, look! there's excite truck nominated for racing game of the year and motorstorm is... not.

better luck next year.

because surely, you're not counting on 6 or 7 exclusives in the next 10 months are you? you've heard about the delays, right? games like lair and mgs4 still hanging out with a "tbd" release date?

no -- you wouldn't do anything silly like that.

m3mnoch.

"“high definition program”? Brain fried out playing too many shooters?"
uh. no. "programming." as in, pre-programmed video content. ie, tv shows and movies.


"That’s USD170, not 200!"
not talking about retail pricing. talking about build cost. the ps3 costs in the neighborhood of $900 to make, remember? ken says to work those extra overtime hours!


"So that leaves a gap of USD 50"
uh. right. that's why i said you could even pick up a game or two.


"For the USD50, yes. (versus standalone player USD1000). AND for a console that doesn’t burn or make loud noises."
stand-alone blu-ray players are in the $700 range and will fall in price a lot faster than the ps3. they only have blu-ray to worry about -- not cell or rsx.


"that’s 200 Dollars EXTRA and you still cant save any stuff on a hard disc on the “USD329” console"
what exactly does that have to do with online features?


"Exclusives on 360in 15 months: Gears, Dead rising, Lost Planet (5-6 decent games overall, almost all shooters)"
um. i'm pretty sure gears and lost planet are really the only two shooters. blue dragon, dead rising, viva pinata, pgr3, blah, blah, blah, etc.

oh, and that's the xbox 360's LAST 15 months. see? the ps3 is late and doesn't get to be compared to LAST YEAR. welcome to the party, pal. you get to deal with the 360's ~150 games already out and ~200 coming this NEXT 15 months.


"Exclusives on PS3 in 15months: Resistance, Heavenly, Lair, Motorstorm, VF5 (delayed on 360), MGS4, DMC4, Warhawk, FF"
i wouldn't bet on any 3rd party exclusives were i you. they require console install-base numbers. therefore:

vf5 -- doesn't count.
mgs4 -- doesn't count.
dmc4 -- doesn't count.
ff -- doesn't count. (besides, we all know the next version is just going to go to the ds anyway....)

resistance -- decent.
motorstorm -- uh... still broken.
lair -- maybe.
warhawk -- broken, left-over scraps.
gt -- broken, left-over scraps.

yeah. awesome games you got there.


"PLUS non-exclusives like GTA4, Assassins"
eeerrrrch! sorry. cross-platformers don't count. deep ports will be better on the 360 and shallow ones better on the wii.

wow. and that's all that's coming out in the next 15 months? TEH ABSOLUTE POWER OF TEH MIGHTY PS3! it's an awesome sight to behold.


"You heard about R6, Oblivion, FEAR (more features than the 360 version)? And what would we want to “come over”? DOA4? PDZ? Keep them mate."

you heard r6, oblivion and fear additional features are downloadable for the 360 right? it has this thing called xbox live. you may have heard about it. and, they have this cool "free feature matching" policy too. something along the lines of "they won't charge you for features you can get on another platform with the base game."

that's why their big stink about "exclusive gta4 content."

oh yeah. i'd forgotten about doa4 and pdz and how they are exclusives -- from 2005. remind me, what year is it again?

and, "mate?" you're an aussie? you know that the ps3 costs US$650/US$780 in australia, right? and, when was it that you were getting a ps3 launch again?


"Yup. Don’t forget that."
pssssst. no, no. that was sarcasm.

m3mnoch.

"Why is it so hard for people to understand that this is not just another "game console"?"

i can tell you exactly what it is. a bastard electronics component with a niche target market.

let's see, shall we?

there are two markets we're looking at:

1) the game console market. qualities? subsidized hardware sold at a loss to keep the price low and build a quick install base. make up the difference in software sales and declining build costs. the strategy is to price it at about what it would cost to make it 1/3 the way through it's expected lifetime. make revenue on backend, high-margin software sales.

2) the home theater market. high quality electronics components built with varying degrees of features and sold at a 2-5% profit margin. traditional low-margin, make it up in volume sales strategy. initially priced high during the early adopter sell-in to offset initially slow sales cycle, but drastically falls in price shortly thereafter to the 2-5% profit range. slow sales through to consumer adoption after many hardware revs.

okay. where does the ps3 fit in?

in the console world:
low price? nope.
high volume hardware/software sales? nope.
subsidized? very.

now the home theater world:
initially built at a profit? nope.
rapid price fall curve? nope.
slow sales? yep.

the ps3 is NOT the best of both worlds, but the WORST of both worlds.

not even japan loves this thing:
http://www.joystiq.com/2007/01/22/japan-gobbling-up-gears-of-war/

oh.... oops. sorry. wrong link here's the right one:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/top/japanese-stores-slashing-20gb-prices-230297.php

m3mnoch.

"360 fans believe that the reason 360 will win is because Microsoft can drop the price to $299 and win with low prices. Unfortunately for them, this will solidify the already widespread perception that the 360 is an inferior console compared to the PS3. And it's true."

because that's worked so well with the wii.

no. the ps3 having a price-point of $600 is stupid. anyone selling it otherwise is in the wrong market -- this is game consoles, not high-def a/v equipment. you can ply us with hd equipment, but, it better be priced like sd equipment.

that, you know, what the whole subsidizing thing is about. fast, cheap install-base. you know, to ride the multiplying effects of unit sales and roi.

show me one console in the history of video games that has won majority marketshare with a price 50% higher than its nearest competitor. at that price differential, you'll find such stellar names as 3do, neo geo, sega saturn -- any of that ringing a bell?

and, it's only $600 for us. the poor brits have to pay $840 for a ps3. oh, and they don't get the option of the 20 gig. oh, and where is this next generation battle going to be won?

yep. in europe.

they have 3 times the population of the u.s. and are the fastest growing gaming market.

whoops.

m3mnoch.

"PS3 buyer in Jan 2007"
i'm sorry.


"Entry price 499"
yep. still $170 more than the entry price of a xbox 360 that you can play gears of war on.


"free and lag-free multiplayer"
yep. all 3 of you playing can play lag free. congrats. remind me again, how is the genji online component? you know, the voice chat and game invites while your playing....


"20GB to save anything you want"
except high definition programming, i suppose.


"Blu-ray"
wait. you're counting that as a plus? erg. i'd have thought being forced to pay $200 extra for your system just to play games would irk you.


"plays ALL PS2 games"
so will the system we all already have. oh, and if you don't have one, you can pick up a ps2 for about $120. less than the difference in price of a ps3 and an xbox, i will point out. even with an extra ps2 game or two.


"massive collection of games on its way within 1 year."
uh.... i wasn't aware that about two or three exclusives was "massive."

at least you'll have the ports. you know, the ones that everyone says play better on the 360.

oh, and sorry to hear about all of those "exclusives" going to the 360. luckily, there's a mass exodus of exclusive 360 games coming to the ps3 to fill in the gaps...

oh...

wait...

there isn't? huh. that's weird. games are leaving, but none are coming back over?

i wonder why that is.

oops. i almost forgot! ps3 pwns!

m3mnoch.