fancyboy

I think Bizarre and PGR3 have done a reasonable job with microtrans. Put out a complete game to begin with. Then add to the infrastructure with desired add ons and make them reasonable. Want a new car pack or just a new car, both are reasonably offered.

The evil is in the limitless $$$$ developers see in microtrans. By taking out questionably necessary content (i.e. the things that make it more than just playable, but complete) they can charge a premium on each unit. This turns their profit from 6 or 7 dollar per unit sold, to 12 to 15 dollars per unit sold or more.

Trust me, developer houses are staffed by gamers and the fights over content left out are vicious. However, these same houses are now owned by greedy bastards, who feel the pinch (small pinch) from game resales, rentals, and subsrciption services, and they no longer care about gamer loyalty.

Speak with your dollars. Any incomplete game...BOYCOTT it!!

this chart is probably how it will end up. there is the huge 1st quarter mistake of sony selling more units than it will have available, but the north american dogfight betwixt sony and MS is likely destined for a tie for 1st plus or minus a few thousand units.

it will be a good time to be a gamer.

unless they price it for $99 or less (and you know they won't). Sony's blu-ray format has a virtual lock on winning.

-stop thinking like a fanboy gamer for one second...you are a minority in buying power. Think like a middle america, flyover state, walmart shopper-

1. no accessory has ever had a sell-through (attach) rate greater than 15% and that rate decreases exponentially the more expensive it is. So despite the 6 million console lead, a 10 percent attach rate is only 600k HD-DVD players. While every PS3 sold has a blu-ray player. Thus by the end of the year the HD-DVD and Blu-ray next gen war is EXACTLY EQUAL.

2. From year end throughout the life of the console, the 360 will have to outsell the PS3 10 to 1 for HD-DVD to survive as the leader of next-gen media.

3. HDTV has an uptake rate of roughly 6-8 million home per year. prices are plummeting and it will only get more widespread. Next time you go to Target look at the HDTV to reg TV ratio. Never noticed it before did you?

all arguments that this is a meaningless format war are absurd.

Plus I havent taken into account the storage format possibilities (PC storage), which has always been utterly dominated by the larger capacity format.

4. To win this format war. HD-DVD should have been attached to the 360 (PS3 style..."no choice"). but since they had to get a year headstart (or lets face it they would have gotten smashed like the previous generation) they did it without the next gen media player, and engineered the 360 so they could add it later.

5. As the Blu-ray format gets a foothold (unless the PS3 is massively faulty, which knowing sony may happen) HDTV adopters will have more choice in the BR "universe" and gravitate away from HD-DVD.

6. Finally as much as the PS3's price offends gamers everywhere, a comparably equipped 360 will be the same (hd-dvd $300) price. The playstation is more trusted amongst the plebes, and unlike the hardcore gamers reading this, the Wal-Mart nation is completely unaware of all of Sony's recent mistakes.


Now, Sony's plan is Excellent. Their execution has been horrendous and they have left the door open. The late release date in Europe leaves the door wide open..especially with a decent bundle, many frustrated gamers and early adopters will go HD-DVD. We think HD-DVD may end up winning Europe. Blu-ray easily wins Japan.

Unless the HD-DVD player is $99, it will have a terrible attach rate.

This is a giant step backwards and the main reason the gamecube failed. Nintendo is abusing it's third party support..AGAIN!!

I realize this a fanboy site and thus rationality is a moot point, but this is horrible. It won't sink the launch here or in Japan. Just like the PS3 price won't sink the launch. If the "early 2007" turns into mid or late 2007, they will have a serious crisis on their hands.

final 2 points

-everyday consumers will likely eventually adopt one of the two next gen formats within the next 3 years. analysis points (despite 360's early lead) to blu-ray, as the lack of an included hd-dvd drive gave too many "opt-out" options to the 5 million or so installed customers. The next wave of customers looking to go next gen will be pricing out essentially identical systems and the PS3 will have a significantly larger media lead at that time (i.e. more blu-ray players versus hd-dvd players).

-Sony's PR has been notoriously bad, but this is not a recent phenomenon. They have a very sound marketing strategy. For sony to fail they would have to push through 70% or less first wave sales, but pre-order polling in both Japan and the US indicate a complete sell out.

2. The console war is important to sony as it helps the true money generating machine of Blu-ray, but "winning" is not necessary. Since most behemoth corporations now that licensing media (see above) and format (see above) gets the money, they just need a "storefront" to get consumers on board.

They have such a huge brand loyalty and name recognition (deserved or not) that even priced at up to $600 dollars they will not slip to less than 30 percent of the market. This 30 percent represents about 3-4 million gamers a year and more importantly 3-4 million "locked in" Blu-ray users, while the competition is still using primarily DVD.

3. The television market is adapting to hdtv faster than any previous market upgrades including
-color
-stereo
-cable/satellite
-DVR's

Growth forecasts for HDTV are off the charts. Despite the average marty (wal-mart, k-mart, target shopper...kinda the average joe middle america person) not having an hdtv now, we think up to 50% will have one by christmas 2009. The prices will shift that quickly. Look in wal-mart or target next time you are there and count the number of hdtv's compared to regular ones. That ratio is only going in one direction.

To sum up:
- Blu-ray is better positioned than HD-DVD for winning a war that is much, much, MUCH bigger than you imagined.

- PS3 vs xbox360 vs Wii is about lucrative content on media, and thus the PS3 getting market share of 30% or greater is a slamdunk win. 30% is almost assured.

- Your next television will likely be an HDTV and you will naturally adopt as much hd content as possible. whomever wins the format war by domination in early installed market share is what you will be watching on your hdtv.

couple of points as an analyst .

1. this next gen "war" is not about systems, it's about software. all new consoles are sold at a loss, while software is sold at a premium most consumers fail to comprehend. That $40-$50 DVD/CD game you purchased costs the publisher about ) $0.12 per unit. That 12 cents! If the console maker owns the format they make more money.

Now pay attention. Both DVD and CD are in fact formats developed by Sony (and others). If Sony can develop a format that is widely established, while being the sole proprietor of both the hardware and the software, then after the initial production cycle expenditure they make countless profits. Thus "forcing" you to buy Blu-Ray. Microsoft is doing the same thing and had done it forever. Microsoft partially owns HD-DVD but most importantly owns the VC-1 codec and wants licensing money from that.

Now how does this matter to the consumer. Both are trying to subtely force the consumer into a corner which will make them tons and tons of money.

A well known fact is that MS could not launch during the same window as Sony, they would have gotten beaten to a bloddy pulp. Sony has too much brand recognition and market share. MS had to launch early and before it's hd-dvd drive was complete, trust me they REALLY, REALLY wanted to force you to buy their next gen format. BUt blu-ray was sooo far off and cell so much harder to develop for that they decided to go early and piecemeal. Thus the "you choose model without real choice. It's no accident that the accessories that make the 360 a "complete" machine add up quickly to a price similiar to the PS3.

While I get into spirited discussions about the PS3 launch both here (at work) and online. A few to consider
-The PS3 will sell out it's initial launch window. That's roughly 1-2 million units.

-The 360 HD-DVD drive will not sell 1-2 million units unless it has a price point below $100. No one can price the parts (chip set and optics, etc) for less than $120.

Thus the PS3 will likely successful "shove" 1-2 million highdef blu-ray players into the market.

Speculation from here: That much of an advantage in the format war gives Sony a huge advantage in addition to profits from owning the media. It also forces studios towards blu-ray. This in no way takes blu-ray quality vs HD-DVD quality into effect, in fact it's almost unimportant.

Sony will have gained an huge lead in the domain that's important to them. Making Blu-ray an industry standard. Once the market moves in that direction. They will have an easier time making recordable BR media a personal computing high capacity media standard. This is what makes them money.

So despite Sony's poor PR (they truly need to hire a better firm), they are well positioned to win the HD-DVD vd BR war.

couple of points as an analyst conclusion.
3. The television market is adapting to hdtv faster than any previous market upgrades including
color
stereo
cable/satellite
DVR's

Growth forecasts for HDTV are off the charts. Despite the average marty (wal-mart, k-mart, target shopper...kinda the average joe middle america person) not having an hdtv now, we think up to 50% will have one by christmas 2009. The prices will shift that quickly. Look in wal-mart or target next time you are there and count the number of hdtv's compared to regular ones. That ratio is only going in one direction.

To sum up:
Blu-ray is better positioned than HD-DVD for winning a war that is much, much, MUCH bigger than you imagined.

PS3 vs xbox360 vs Wii is about lucrative content on media, and thus the PS3 getting market share of 30% or greater is a slamdunk win. 30% is almost assured.

Your next television will likely be an HDTV and you will naturally adopt as much hd content as possible. whomever wins the format war by domination in early installed market share is what you will be watching on your hdtv.


So to answer the questions initially posed.

Yes everyday consumers will likely eventually adopt one of the two next gen formats within the next 3 years. analysis points (despite 360's early lead) to blu-ray, as the lack of an included hd-dvd drive gave too many "opt-out" options to the 5 million or so installed customers. The next wave of customers looking to go next gen will be pricing out essentially identical systems and the PS3 will have a significantly larger media lead at that time (i.e. more blu-ray players versus hd-dvd players).

Sony's PR has been notoriously bad, but this is not a recent phenomenon. They have a very sound marketing strategy. For sony to fail they would have to push through 70% or less first wave sales, but pre-order polling in both Japan and the US indicate a complete sell out.

couple of points as an analyst continued.
2. The console war is important to sony as it helps the true money generating machine of Blu-ray, but "winning" is not necessary. Since most behemoth corporations now that licensing media (see above) and format (see above) gets the money, they just need a "storefront" to get consumers on board.

They have such a huge brand loyalty and name recognition (deserved or not) that even priced at up to $600 dollars they will not slip to less than 30 percent of the market. This 30 percent represents about 3-4 million gamers a year and more importantly 3-4 million "locked in" Blu-ray users, while the competition is still using primarily DVD.

couple of points as an analyst .

1. this next gen "war" is not about systems, it's about software. all new consoles are sold at a loss, while software is sold at a premium most consumers fail to comprehend. That $40-$50 DVD/CD game you purchased costs the publisher about ) $0.12 per unit. That 12 cents! If the console maker owns the format they make more money.

Now pay attention. Both DVD and CD are in fact formats developed by Sony (and others). If Sony can develop a format that is widely established, while being the sole proprietor of both the hardware and the software, then after the initial production cycle expenditure they make countless profits. Thus "forcing" you to buy Blu-Ray. Microsoft is doing the same thing and had done it forever. Microsoft partially owns HD-DVD but most importantly owns the VC-1 codec and wants licensing money from that.

Now how does this matter to the consumer. Both are trying to subtely force the consumer into a corner which will make them tons and tons of money.

A well known fact is that MS could not launch during the same window as Sony, they would have gotten beaten to a bloddy pulp. Sony has too much brand recognition and market share. MS had to launch early and before it's hd-dvd drive was complete, trust me they REALLY, REALLY wanted to force you to buy their next gen format. BUt blu-ray was sooo far off and cell so much harder to develop for that they decided to go early and piecemeal. Thus the "you choose model without real choice. It's no accident that the accessories that make the 360 a "complete" machine add up quickly to a price similiar to the PS3.

While I get into spirited discussions about the PS3 launch both here (at work) and online. A few to consider
-The PS3 will sell out it's initial launch window. That's roughly 1-2 million units.

-The 360 HD-DVD drive will not sell 1-2 million units unless it has a price point below $100. No one can price the parts (chip set and optics, etc) for less than $120.

Thus the PS3 will likely successful "shove" 1-2 million highdef blu-ray players into the market.

Speculation from here: That much of an advantage in the format war gives Sony a huge advantage in addition to profits from owning the media. It also forces studios towards blu-ray. This in no way takes blu-ray quality vs HD-DVD quality into effect, in fact it's almost unimportant.

Sony will have gained an huge lead in the domain that's important to them. Making Blu-ray an industry standard. Once the market moves in that direction. They will have an easier time making recordable BR media a personal computing high capacity media standard. This is what makes them money.

So despite Sony's poor PR (they truly need to hire a better firm), they are well positioned to win the HD-DVD vd BR war.