Nabu the Wise

While this figure might be more accurate, I don't think that this is how console manufacturing costs are usually figured out.

I suspect that this figure included the R&D that went into manufacturing the chips (or, for M$, the amount of money they had to pay IBM and ATi to own the chip design).

Most of the time, when the cost of a console is figured out, the manufacture price is the only thing considered. So, on paper, M$ will be out of the red much quicker (perhaps even by the time they have predicted).

Besides, Sony will have a much, much higher expense. After all, how may billions have gone into Blu-ray and Cell (both design, and manufacturing capacity)? Sony is counting on using these technologies across the board, not just for the PS3. I suspect that if you considered these expenses as being only for the PS3, the console might never make any money throughout its life.