Dave

Like John Gruber said, you are so close but so far from the REAL STORY.

The real story is NOTIFICATIONS. Twitter is just one service that can integrate with the brand new notification system to provide real time, system level updates of your incoming tweets in application etc.

There will be no Hulu streaming for the soccer moms, this doesn't support flash. No Pandora playing when they look at recipes because it doesn't support multitasking. No spicy video chat with the husband on his business trip because there is no webcam or iChat either.

Here is what I think is happening:

Arcade SKU: Stays $280

Xbox 360 SKU: Fire sale at $299 to get rid of 20GB models, 60 GB at $349 for good.

Xbox 360 Elite: Will announce that it is coming with BluRay built in for the 2008 holiday season and will continue to cost $450.

Tapulous is the name of the company run by the guys who make 1Password, it is their "iPhone" company.

too bad it turned out that iphone was NEVER the problem at Duke and they issued an apology to Apple...

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2007/072007-cisco-iphone-duke-network-problem.html

well on the surface it seems that more data will end up being used by 3G since it makes it easier for the end user to browse so therefore it should cost more to AT&T to run, and therefore cost more to us $20 vs. $30 **THAT ISN'T REALLY TRUE** because you can see that worldwide data costs for 3G (and faster) networks are far, far less than even the $20-30 we pay. the reality here is that AT&T is charging more not because it is necessary for them to do so, but rather because they think the desire for the iPhone 3G will let them get away with it. AT&T is right. ;-)

several sites and several AT&T reps are reporting that if you upgrade to an iPhone 3G your voice plan cost remains the same, data plan increases $10 and your 2 year contract begins again as of the date of the change. it remains to be seen what the voice rates are across the board for the new iPhone 3G, but it appears as an existing customer of AT&T if they are more you can keep what you have 'cept for the data cost increase.

if you think about it the data cost increase of $10 = $240 over the 2 year contract... so you $199 iPhone v2 actual ends up being $40 total dollars in cost over the same time span than if you had a $399 iPhone v1... so much for "half the price". that said $40 more for 3G/GPS is likely worth it, but there are no "discounts" here, let's make that clear.

it appears that Apple/AT&T will allow a new iPhone purchase at anytime at the cost listed, however your 2 years will start fresh at the time of purchase. for example if you bought an iPhone in mid-2007 your contract would have been up in mid-2009. however if you buy an iPhone 2.0 in mid-2008 your contract will now end in mid-2010. not a bad deal at all because other companies offer lower credits to wait periods before allowing existing costumers to upgrade and then STILL add on to their contracts. this at least allows the upgrade at the same cost as the new user, albeit with the 2 year contract terms.

I don't care too much about activating at the store since I am not going to jailbreak or anything, but it still would have been nice to do it from the comfort and time of my choosing at home. For example people buying these for Christmas presents will have the issue of how to time the purchase and setup while before it was simple.

it isn't true you won't be able to order an iphone from the apple.com store at launch... you will. just like with the launch of the iphone last june, you will not be able to PRE-ORDER but at whatever time they start selling iphone 2.0 on july 11th you will be able to get them online and sadly also will have to sign the at&t contract online, just like in the store.