Mike Mills

I am pretty sure that Halo 3 won't be released until around November 2007. The reasoning is that Microsoft is using the Christmas shopping season to take sales away from Sony.

The 360 came out in November 2005. They wouldn't have brought Halo 3 out for Christmas 2006 even if it were ready - there's no need to. Sony hasn't manufactured enough units of the Playstation 3 to present any threat to Microsoft this season. So Gears of War makes a nice substitute as a console-seller.

But by next Christmas, Sony will of course have caught up on manufacturing, plus there will be more games available for PS3. The real war will be fought over Christmas 2007. If Microsoft can use Halo 3 to steal customers from Sony during next year's pivotal shopping season, that should seal it: Microsoft will have "won" the next-generation console war.

I predict that, by the end of the 360/PS3 cycle, Microsoft and Sony will have pretty much exactly swapped places. Microsoft will have sold about as many 360s as Sony has PS2s, and Sony will have sold about as many PS3s as Microsoft has first-generation XBoxes.

That's assuming that Microsoft wins Christmas 2007. I think they will, because they'll have Halo 3, plus Grand Theft Auto IV will be released for 360 at the same time as PS3 (so there will be no advantage for PS3.)

I also expect to see one more GOW-quality game for the 360 around Spring/Summer - whenever the PS3 gets caught up with manufacturing. Microsoft has a serious advantage _this_ season, and their not just gonna let it slip away.

IMHO, of course!