Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com Joystiq http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.joystiq.com/media/feedlogo.gif Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com en-us Copyright 2013 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Analyst: Gears of War: Judgment, God of War: Ascension weak in March]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2013/04/16/analyst-gears-of-war-judgment-god-of-war-ascension-weak-in-m/http://www.joystiq.com/2013/04/16/analyst-gears-of-war-judgment-god-of-war-ascension-weak-in-m/http://www.joystiq.com/2013/04/16/analyst-gears-of-war-judgment-god-of-war-ascension-weak-in-m/#comments Analyst firm Cowen & Company estimates high-profile March launches God of War: Ascension and Gears of War: Judgment both sold far less than their predecessors. The firm projects (via GI.biz) that Ascension sold 360,000 in the US during March and Judgment moved 425,000, down from first-month sales of 1.1 million for God of War 3 and over three million in Gears of War 3's first week of availability.

A much better March for Tomb Raider and BioShock Infinite is predicted. The Crystal Dynamics reboot has amassed 696,000 sales in the US over March, while the firm says BioShock Infinite is near 665,000 in just 10 days.

Cowen & Company predicts NPD data for March will show a decline in software and hardware spend compared to last year, though the firm is hopeful the launches of StarCraft 2: Heart of the Swarm and SimCity will help contribute to a substantial increase in PC game sales.

JoystiqAnalyst: Gears of War: Judgment, God of War: Ascension weak in March originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 16 Apr 2013 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcowen-and-companygod-of-war-ascensionmicrosoftnpdpcplaystationps3salesxboxTue, 16 Apr 2013 18:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Report: Wii U game sales behind Wii, GameCube]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2013/01/14/report-wii-u-game-sales-behind-wii-gamecube/http://www.joystiq.com/2013/01/14/report-wii-u-game-sales-behind-wii-gamecube/http://www.joystiq.com/2013/01/14/report-wii-u-game-sales-behind-wii-gamecube/#comments Looking at the December NPD results, you may have noticed that the 3DS's New Super Mario Bros. 2 placed in the top ten sellers in the US, but New Super Mario Bros. U was nowhere to be found, nor was any other Wii U exclusive.

Analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company's interpretation of the Wii U's early software sales is troubling. "Totals for the November-December period were -43% lower than software sales for the Wii and -50% lower than those for the GameCube," Creutz reports. It's not the most auspicious start for the new hardware. The only US Wii U software sales number to be released by Nintendo is 580,000 units of New Super Mario Bros. U, sold in November and December.

Worth noting is that the Wii U offers full games through its eShop, sales of which would not be counted toward NPD software sales totals. Like all digital game sales, the numbers are unknown, but there is some unknown additional commerce taking place that wasn't on the Wii and GameCube.

Joystiq has contacted Nintendo for a comment on the report, but has yet to hear back at the time of publishing.

JoystiqReport: Wii U game sales behind Wii, GameCube originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 14 Jan 2013 18:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcowen-and-companydoug-creutznintendosaleswii-uMon, 14 Jan 2013 18:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: GTA V will launch in Q1 2013, sell 14 million copies]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2012/05/26/analyst-gta-v-will-launch-in-q1-2013-sell-14-million-copies/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/05/26/analyst-gta-v-will-launch-in-q1-2013-sell-14-million-copies/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/05/26/analyst-gta-v-will-launch-in-q1-2013-sell-14-million-copies/#comments ImageSterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia is predicting big numbers for Grand Theft Auto V something fierce. Bhatia projects Grand Theft Auto V will debut during the first three months of 2013 and will pull in $700 million in revenue for Take-Two Interactive with 14 million copies sold over its launch window - though Bhatia didn't say just how long he considers this launch window to be.

This $700 million figure is close to the $775 million earned by Modern Warfare 3 in its first five days of launch back in November, which is an entertainment record that has yet to be bested. Rockstar's previous effort, Grand Theft Auto IV, has shipped over 22 million copies worldwide.

JoystiqAnalyst: GTA V will launch in Q1 2013, sell 14 million copies originally appeared on Joystiq on Sat, 26 May 2012 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystarvind-bhatiagrand-theft-auto-5gta5rockstarRockstar-Gamessterne-ageetake-twotake-two-interactiveSat, 26 May 2012 18:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts: Modern Warfare 3 sales below Black Ops so far]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/16/analysts-modern-warfare-3-sales-below-black-ops-so-far/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/16/analysts-modern-warfare-3-sales-below-black-ops-so-far/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/16/analysts-modern-warfare-3-sales-below-black-ops-so-far/#comments Modern Warfare 3 had a strong start out of the gate, but hasn't shown the same vigor in sales as Treyarch's 2010 outing, Call of Duty: Black Ops - at least, according to industry analysts. Could the franchise fatigue we've seen across the pond be setting in here as well?

According to comments made to Gamasutra, the firm estimates the total volume of sales for Modern Warfare 3 are down, somewhere around 4.2%, but it's not necessarily due to franchise fatigue. The firm posits that casual gamers are using their consoles more for streaming content (such as Netflix), and purchasing fewer games.

Last month, year-over-year software sales continued to decline. The estimated sales for Modern Warfare 3 are for boxed copies only, mind you - Activision is making lots of cash on digital wares too.

Activision has yet to comment on our inquiries, but with their annual earnings call due in the next couple weeks, we should hear one way or the other soon enough.

JoystiqAnalysts: Modern Warfare 3 sales below Black Ops so far originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 16 Apr 2012 22:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystcall-of-duty-elitecall-of-duty-modern-warfare-3microsoftmodern-warfare-3pcplaystationps3xboxMon, 16 Apr 2012 22:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst calculates Game's loss from not stocking Mass Effect 3]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/02/analyst-calculates-games-loss-from-not-stocking-mass-effect-3/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/02/analyst-calculates-games-loss-from-not-stocking-mass-effect-3/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/02/analyst-calculates-games-loss-from-not-stocking-mass-effect-3/#comments An analyst has estimated the expected loss for financially troubled UK retailer Game being unable to stock Mass Effect 3 (or future EA products) next week. Analyst Mark Photiades of Singer Capital told the Guardian he expects Game to lose £2 million ($3.2M) in profits.

"Working on the assumption that a decent triple A title sells 0.8m-1m titles in the first few weeks of release in the UK and assuming Game has around 20% share, we calculate that by not stocking Mass Effect 3, Game is potentially missing out on around £6m-£7m of revenues in the UK given the title will retail for £39.99," said Photiades.

Ubisoft played some similar hardball with Game recently during the Vita launch. The situation is already dire for Game. Not having product to sell can only make it worse.

JoystiqAnalyst calculates Game's loss from not stocking Mass Effect 3 originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 02 Mar 2012 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystBritainEAElectronic-ArtsGamemass-effect-3microsoftpcplaystationps3UKxboxFri, 02 Mar 2012 11:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Star Wars: The Old Republic performance fears are overblown, says analyst]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/star-wars-the-old-republic-performance-fears-are-overblown-say/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/star-wars-the-old-republic-performance-fears-are-overblown-say/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/star-wars-the-old-republic-performance-fears-are-overblown-say/#comments While Electronic Arts has seen its stock price dropping since the (somewhat rocky) launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic, at least one firm believes investor concerns are "overdone," reports Gamasutra. A new report from Macquarie Securities suggests that the concerns about SWTOR's sales numbers have risen largely from outside "speculation" (you mean like this?), as EA has yet to officially divulge the game's performance so far.

Furthermore, while SWTOR's NPD performance was poor during launch -- it failed to break into December's top ten -- Macquarie's Ben Schacter thinks that the majority of copies were likely sold digitally via EA's Origin service, something the NPD doesn't track. He predicts that the game may have sold as many as 1.5 million copies, which seems reasonable given its initial player base. It's important to note, however, that SWTOR's true success will only be measured by how many players actually maintain their subscriptions -- especially now that players actually can cancel their accounts.

JoystiqStar Wars: The Old Republic performance fears are overblown, says analyst originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 20 Jan 2012 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteaelectronic-artspcStar-Wars-The-Old-RepublicThe-Old-RepublicFri, 20 Jan 2012 10:30:00 EST<![CDATA[New Zynga titles struggle, analysts call for increase in daily active users]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/18/new-zynga-titles-struggle-analysis-call-for-increase-in-daily-a/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/18/new-zynga-titles-struggle-analysis-call-for-increase-in-daily-a/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/01/18/new-zynga-titles-struggle-analysis-call-for-increase-in-daily-a/#comments Zynga's two latest games, Hidden Chronicles and the iOS-only Scramble With Friends, have failed to accumulate the same daily active user (DAU) totals as two of the social giant's previous releases, Castleville or Empires and Allies. This spells big trouble for the company's trading value and future growth, at least according to a report released by financial analysis group Cowen and Company.

Hidden Chronicles' 12 day post-launch DAU total of 710,000 is well below the over 5 million DAU figure reached by Empires and Allies and Castleville during their first 12 days of existence; similarly, Scramble With Friends has failed to penetrate the Top 20 barrier on the App Store. Historically, Zynga's DAU totals peak 3 months after a game has been released (according to the report), and while it's possible that both Hidden Chronicles and Scramble With Friends could slowly acquire a larger user base, there's nothing in Zynga's statistical history to make that extremely plausible.

Now, 710,000 daily users sounds like a ton of people, but Zynga has set the bar so high that it's not enough to keep the company's overall growth even: "The quarterly rate of DAU decline for Zynga's titles that are at least three months old has averaged 18.4 percent per quarter for the last two years," explained Doug Creutz of Cowen and Company. "Assuming Zynga averages a 20 percent quarterly rate of decline for titles beyond their launch windows in 2012, the company must add 9-10 million DAUs per quarter from new games just to keep total DAUs constant."

So basically, any game Zynga releases in 2012 has to achieve at least 5 million daily users in order for the company's user base to break even. In other news, Zynga has constructed a super-sonic ultra-high-altitude aircraft to recover the bar it's accidentally set for itself in the exosphere.

JoystiqNew Zynga titles struggle, analysts call for increase in daily active users originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 18 Jan 2012 21:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcastlevilleCowen-and-Companydaily-active-usersDAUEmpires-and-AlliesHidden-Chroniclesmobilepcscramble-with-friendszyngaWed, 18 Jan 2012 21:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Modern Warfare 3 pre-orders near 9 million, analyst says]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2011/11/08/modern-warfare-3-pre-orders-near-9-million-analyst-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/11/08/modern-warfare-3-pre-orders-near-9-million-analyst-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/11/08/modern-warfare-3-pre-orders-near-9-million-analyst-says/#comments Not das Arkaden! According to Lazard Capital Markets' Atul Bagga, as reported by GameSpot, pre-orders for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 were nearly three times that of Battlefield 3, which pegs Activision's shooter at around 9 million pre-orders. The estimate puts Modern Warfare 3 pre-orders roughly 70 percent ahead of those for Modern Warfare 2 and 55 percent beyond Call of Duty: Black Ops. Furthermore, the analyst expects Modern Warfare 3 to move a full 20 million copies by the end of the year.

Those aren't exactly outlandish estimates, given the success of the franchise. Perhaps a more interesting study would be to gauge how many people are skipping work to play. Frankly, with Skyrim launching later this week, we fear worldwide productivity will flatline forever.

JoystiqModern Warfare 3 pre-orders near 9 million, analyst says originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 08 Nov 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysisanalystcall-of-duty-modern-warfare-3lazard-capital-marketsmicrosoftmodern-warfare-3pcplaystationps3xboxTue, 08 Nov 2011 12:30:00 EST<![CDATA[NPD at GDC: PC retail to grow, physical and digital purchase gap closing]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/npd-at-gdc-pc-retail-to-grow-physical-and-digital-purchase-gap/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/npd-at-gdc-pc-retail-to-grow-physical-and-digital-purchase-gap/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/npd-at-gdc-pc-retail-to-grow-physical-and-digital-purchase-gap/#commentsFiled under: , ,

PC gaming is set to grow in 2010, according to NPD's Michael Klotz. Klotz hosted a panel here at GDC Online 2010 this afternoon, and said that expected growth can be attributed to two things: StarCraft 2 and World of Warcraft: Cataclysm. PC revenue has reached $303 million as of August this year, and Klotz expects the WoW expansion to put the total over the top of last year's $538 million.

Klotz also talked about the ongoing transition of customers simply buying physical copies of games to buying both physical discs and digital downloads. In terms of revenue, physical sales still outweigh the digital side, but digital purchases (including both full game purchases and DLC) have overtaken bought discs in terms of numbers. That means, said Klotz, that physical purchases are still selling at full price, while customers are paying much less for digital games, either because of sales or because they're buying casual or just cheaper titles online. Klotz credited Rock Band for pioneering the digital move -- lots of players weren't sure about digital purchases until they saw how seamlessly the Rock Band Marketplace worked, and then they were OK with downloading games and game content.

Finally, Klotz shared an interesting stat: Physical point cards (like those for Microsoft points on Xbox Live) have overtaken gamepads as the largest accessory category for game retail in just the past six months. As long as he could remember, Klotz said, game controllers have always been the best selling game accessory, with power cables next on the list. But cards for DLC are now on top of the charts after a 37 percent increase in the past year, showing just how important it is for game retailers to try and get a piece of that pie.

JoystiqNPD at GDC: PC retail to grow, physical and digital purchase gap closing originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 07 Oct 2010 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdigitalgamestopgdc-online-2010michael-klotznpdpcpurchasesretailstatsThu, 07 Oct 2010 20:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/06/analysts-weigh-in-on-panasonics-jungle/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/06/analysts-weigh-in-on-panasonics-jungle/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/06/analysts-weigh-in-on-panasonics-jungle/#commentsFiled under: , ,

New tech does not always equal gimme gimme -- according to several prominent analysts, Panasonic is set to engage in quite the uphill battle with its new handheld, The Jungle. Both Bill Pidgeon of M2 Research and David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers they believe the unit is "a non-starter."

Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets said it looks like "an uphill challenge to launch a new portable gaming device unless there is some meaningful differentiation or access to proprietary content," while EEDAR's Jesse Divnich offered that its success hinges on third-party support, saying that, "with any hardware platform regardless of its quality, the absence of strong third-party support will most certainly end in failure." All valid points, but should these guys be giving the device the benefit of the doubt?

As it stands right now, we don't know much about the system other than what it aims to do: give MMO players a dedicated piece of hardware so they can take their games on the go. Given how popular MMOs are (and, in turn, how much of the cash money they generate), from a business standpoint it would seem win-win; nobody else is offering something to MMO players who may want a bit of portability. But, on the other hand, the problem is -- at least according to these analysts -- that the handheld doesn't particularly fill a void that can't be filled by a netbook or laptop.

JoystiqAnalysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 06 Oct 2010 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystanalystsbill-pidgeoncolin-sebastiandavid-coledfc-intelligenceeedarjesse-divnichjunglelazard-capital-marketsm2-researchmobilepanasonicpanasonic-junglepcthe-jungleWed, 06 Oct 2010 08:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: 3DS will cost $250 in the U.S., likely won't come stateside before April]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/30/pachter-3ds-will-cost-250-in-the-u-s-likely-wont-come-state/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/30/pachter-3ds-will-cost-250-in-the-u-s-likely-wont-come-state/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/30/pachter-3ds-will-cost-250-in-the-u-s-likely-wont-come-state/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter recently shared with us his insight on yesterday's pricing and release date announcement for the Nintendo 3DS. He predicts that the 25,000 yen ($299) price point for the Japanese launch of the handheld will depreciate somewhat as it travels to Western markets, arriving in the U.S. for $250, Europe for €250 and the U.K. for £200. And although Nintendo of America CEO Reggie Fils-Aime stated the 3DS would "launch in all of our major markets by March 31, 2011," Pachter foresees an even later arrival in the West.

"Looking at how Nintendo does things," Pachter said, "if you're launching February 26 in Japan, and their earnings reports say before the end of the fiscal year in U.S. and Europe -- is there any prayer, even a 1 percent chance that they'll launch a week later in the U.S., March 5? No freaking way. It's not even remotely possible they're launching first half of March. I'm betting it gets delayed until April in Europe and U.S.."

Some analysts have balked at the fairly high Japanese launch price of the 3DS. Though Pachter admits the launch price is "higher than what's customary" for the handheld market, he said the market will bear the toll -- a lesson hard learned by Nintendo when it launched its latest home console.

"They screwed up on the Wii. It was sold out for two full years! You just couldn't get one," Pachter said. "What was the point? They should have sold it for $300 at launch, and made another $50 for every Wii sold during that period. It sold so competitively in the first few weeks that it was going for $1,000 on eBay -- and they absolutely don't want to see the 3DS on eBay."

Gallery: Nintendo 3DS final hardware

Continue reading Pachter: 3DS will cost $250 in the U.S., likely won't come stateside before April

JoystiqPachter: 3DS will cost $250 in the U.S., likely won't come stateside before April originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 30 Sep 2010 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>3dsanalystdsindustrymichael-pachternintendoWedbush-MorganThu, 30 Sep 2010 09:50:00 EST<![CDATA[Mafia 2 unlikely to be profitable, Pachter says]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/30/mafia-2-unlikely-to-be-profitable-pachter-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/30/mafia-2-unlikely-to-be-profitable-pachter-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/30/mafia-2-unlikely-to-be-profitable-pachter-says/#commentsFiled under: , ,

According to Michael Pachter, Mafia 2 sales appear unlikely to recoup the cost of the game's six-year development period. The Wedbush analyst told Gamasutra that "consumer interest appears to be waning" for 2K Games' crime drama.

Mafia 2 currently holds the #43 position on Amazon's Video Game Bestsellers list, one week after release. In comparison, Rockstar's Red Dead Redemption faced regular shortages when it was first released and sold five million units in just three weeks' time.

Take-Two will update its investors with the company's latest financial results later this week. In addition to confirming sales figures, Pachter expects "the company to announce a shift in release dates for LA Noire out of 2010 and into 2011." Now ... wouldn't that be surprising?

JoystiqMafia 2 unlikely to be profitable, Pachter says originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 30 Aug 2010 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystMafia-2michael-pachtermicrosoftpcplaystationps3salestake-twoxboxMon, 30 Aug 2010 17:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Kinect sales could top 4 million in 2010]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/12/analyst-kinect-sales-could-top-4-million-in-2010/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/12/analyst-kinect-sales-could-top-4-million-in-2010/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/12/analyst-kinect-sales-could-top-4-million-in-2010/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Kinect retail box

Industry analysts have already weighed in with their thoughts on Kinect's $150 price point -- now we're hearing from one of them on how well he thinks the gizmo will sell. The answer: really well, actually.

Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital has crunched numbers and deduced that Microsoft is manufacturing the motion sensor at a rate of two million per month, and believes that four million will be sold by 2011. That figure doesn't purely represent stand-alone sales, however. "The mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle," Sebastian believes, which is why he's upped his sales forecast from three million units in calendar Q4.

Interestingly, the analyst points out that sales of PlayStation Move, which launches roughly six weeks earlier on September 19 and "without as much 'buzz' as Kinect," could offer a better picture of how Microsoft's motion control offering will perform after it makes its bow on November 4.

JoystiqAnalyst: Kinect sales could top 4 million in 2010 originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 12 Aug 2010 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcolin-sebastiankinectmicrosoftxboxThu, 12 Aug 2010 18:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Call of Duty Online could make $100 million in its first year]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/30/analyst-call-of-duty-online-could-make-100-million-in-its-firs/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/30/analyst-call-of-duty-online-could-make-100-million-in-its-firs/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/30/analyst-call-of-duty-online-could-make-100-million-in-its-firs/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Rumors have been flying around about a subscription-based Call of Duty game for some time now -- Activision boss Bobby Kotick loves the idea, because he loves money, and the company's other subscription-based game, World of Warcraft, is quite the cash-printing machine. So why not go down that road?

Many still believe Activision will, including Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey. With the publisher's plans to break into China and Korea, Hickey told IndustryGamers he sees Call of Duty as the perfect platform for accomplishing that goal and strengthening ties with NetEase, the online powerhouse of the Chinese market. "We expect the Company [NetEase] could extend their relationship with Activision Blizzard, by establishing an additional license to operate Call of Duty Online in China and Blizzard's unannounced MMO, which will likely leverage their Battle.net platform," he said. "The eventuality of COD in China could bring an additional +$50 to +$100 million in sales and +$0.15 to +$0.30 in EPS in its first year of operation." EPS, to clarify, is short for "earnings per share."

Who knows what's in store for the future, but for now, rest assured: you won't ever have to fork over extra cash to play Modern Warfare 2 online.

JoystiqAnalyst: Call of Duty Online could make $100 million in its first year originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 30 Jul 2010 22:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionactivision-blizzardanalystblizzardcall-of-dutycall-of-duty-onlinechinajanco-partnerskoreamike-hickeyneteaseFri, 30 Jul 2010 22:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts predict StarCraft 2 sales in 2010 to be out of this world]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/28/analysts-predict-starcraft-2-sales-in-2010-to-be-out-of-this-wor/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/28/analysts-predict-starcraft-2-sales-in-2010-to-be-out-of-this-wor/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/28/analysts-predict-starcraft-2-sales-in-2010-to-be-out-of-this-wor/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Video game industry analysts' ears perked up yesterday following the release of Blizzard's super anticipated RTS, StarCraft 2 -- sensing a need for the skills of their vocation, these analysts began firing off their predictions for how the game would sell through the end of the year. According to Gamespot, Signal Hill's Tom Greenwald suggests that "5-6 million units this year are highly achievable," while Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian predicts the game to sell 4.5 million units through September and 6.5 million units by the end of 2010.

Speaking to USA Today, Morgan Wedbush guru Michael Pachter gave his prediction: five million copies within the next two to three months. Using our own comprehension of the gaming industry, as well as a few tricks we've picked up from The Price is Right, we've got our own predictions: Five million and one by October, six-and-a-half million and one by the end of the year. Oh, yeah. That spot on the Showcase Showdown is ours for sure.

JoystiqAnalysts predict StarCraft 2 sales in 2010 to be out of this world originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 28 Jul 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystblizzardcolin-sebastianmichael-pachterpcrtssalesStarcraft-2tom-greenwaldWed, 28 Jul 2010 16:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/20/roundup-analyst-commentary-on-kinect-pricing/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/20/roundup-analyst-commentary-on-kinect-pricing/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/20/roundup-analyst-commentary-on-kinect-pricing/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Kinect retail box
Everybody has an opinion at the moment about Kinect's $150 price tag, but let's hear what the analysts who get paid for their opinions think. We've got reactions from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, after the break.

Continue reading Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing

JoystiqRoundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AnalystAnalystscolin-sebastianEEDARJesse-DivnichKinectlazard-capital-marketsMichael-PachtermicrosoftpricingWedbush-MorganxboxTue, 20 Jul 2010 13:32:00 EST<![CDATA[Wii installed base growing more quickly than PS2's did]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/06/22/wii-installed-base-growing-more-quickly-than-ps2s-did/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/06/22/wii-installed-base-growing-more-quickly-than-ps2s-did/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/06/22/wii-installed-base-growing-more-quickly-than-ps2s-did/#commentsFiled under: , ,

During E3, Nintendo gave a presentation to analysts about the company's new offerings and its current status. Reggie Fils-Aime presented the above slide, which shows the startling truth about the Wii's installed base in the United States: in its fourth year on the market, it's larger than the ubiquitous PlayStation 2's installed base at the same point in its life, by a margin of almost five million units. Of course, the PS2 has had a spectacularly long lifespan after that, with Sony announcing 7.2 million units sold just last year.

Later in the presentation, Reggie revealed that around 300,000 units of the black Wii console have been sold since its May 9 introduction in North America, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 is "approaching 900,000 units here in the U.S."

JoystiqWii installed base growing more quickly than PS2's did originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 22 Jun 2010 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystblack-wiie3-2010install-baseinstalled-basenintendoreggie-fils-aimesuper-mario-galaxy-2wiiTue, 22 Jun 2010 13:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: April's low game sales 'baffling']]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/14/pachter-aprils-low-game-sales-baffling/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/14/pachter-aprils-low-game-sales-baffling/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/14/pachter-aprils-low-game-sales-baffling/#comments The April NPD sales figures for the US were bad. How bad? Let's try: The April NPD figures were as if millions of analysts "cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced" bad. Speaking with IndustryGamers, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says his group found the results "baffling." He notes that sales were the lowest since May of 2007, "when this generation was barely underway," and it was the weakest April since 2005. Pachter also stated, "The sequential decline of 54% is the greatest in the 11 years that we have been tracking monthly data (except for December-January declines), dwarfing the previous record of 42% set in March-April 2002."

At a loss to explain exactly why April 2010 was so bad, Pachter feels it was just a "fluke." He explained, "We do not believe that core gamers suddenly shifted allegiance to Facebook or iPhone games in April, nor do we believe that Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 online play increased dramatically during April."

With May's lineup including several major titles across multiple consoles, the analyst feels the month could show "dramatic growth." If not, well, let's just hope for the best right now. Flukes happen.

JoystiqPachter: April's low game sales 'baffling' originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 14 May 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysisanalystbusinessindustrygamersindustrygamers.commichael-pachternpdFri, 14 May 2010 18:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Nintendo expects falling profits for fiscal 2009]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/04/nintendo-expects-falling-profits-for-fiscal-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/04/nintendo-expects-falling-profits-for-fiscal-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/04/nintendo-expects-falling-profits-for-fiscal-2009/#commentsAs predicted by analysts late last year, Nintendo is forecasting a drop in annual profits for the first time since the Nintendo DS's 2004 introduction. It's not a loss, just a reduction in profits -- Nintendo is still forecasting profits of ¥230 billion ($2.43 billion), compared to fiscal 2009's ¥279.1 billion ($2.95 billion). The AP's Yuri Kageyama notes that the Wii price drop, as well as slower sales early in the fiscal year (reflected in the first half earnings report), negatively impacted Nintendo's profits.

Analyst Yuta Sakurai thinks Nintendo is being too pessimistic (or just not optimistic enough, considering that the subject is enormous profit). "We are expecting the results to be better than the company forecasts for the Wii," the Nomura Securities analyst said. "Christmas shopping was strong." Nintendo did have an extraordinary December, with both the Wii and the DS breaking three million units each just in the US. It then went on to break sales records in the first two months of 2010. Perhaps Sakurai is correct, and Nintendo is just being modest about its profits. We'll find out on Thursday when Nintendo releases its annual earnings.

[Via 1UP]

JoystiqNintendo expects falling profits for fiscal 2009 originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 04 May 2010 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystDSearningsfiscal-year-2010Nintendonomura-securitiesprofitssalesWiiTue, 04 May 2010 15:30:00 EST<![CDATA[NPD: Handheld gaming growing in popularity among children]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/29/npd-handheld-gaming-growing-in-popularity-among-children/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/29/npd-handheld-gaming-growing-in-popularity-among-children/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/29/npd-handheld-gaming-growing-in-popularity-among-children/#commentsNew data from the NPD shows that portable game systems are increasing in popularity among kids aged 4 to 14. 44% of kids in the U.S. between these ages use a handheld, up eight percent from a similar study in 2005. What happened since 2005? Oh, right, the PSP and DS Lite. And the iPhone, for that matter. Just eight percent?

According to the report, more kids own portable game systems than other types of devices. In addition, NPD noted that many of these handhelds were acquired used, with more kids receiving used game systems in 2009 than in 2008.

"Kids ages 14 and under were the primary recipient of 37 percent of hardware unit sales for the 12 months ending March 2010," NPD analyst Anita Frazier told IndustryGamers, also noting that the amount of kid-targeted digital content being downloaded is on the rise, suggesting that kids are open to the transition to digital distribution.

JoystiqNPD: Handheld gaming growing in popularity among children originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 29 Apr 2010 12:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystApplechildrenDShandheldhandheld-devicesiPodNintendonpdportableportable-gamingThu, 29 Apr 2010 12:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: First Activision-Bungie game 'well along' in development, will sell at least 10 million units]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/29/pachter-first-activision-bungie-game-well-along-in-developmen/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/29/pachter-first-activision-bungie-game-well-along-in-developmen/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/29/pachter-first-activision-bungie-game-well-along-in-developmen/#comments Though firm details about the terms of the Activision-Bungie partnership are still awfully slim, industry analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter has given his two cents to Gamasutra about the financial potential of the merger, which should result in Activision earning a great deal more than two cents.

First, Pachter suggests this is a publishing partnership instead of a mere distribution agreement, which will increase Activision's profit margins from around 10 percent to anywhere between 15 and 20 percent on all of Bungie's titles. He estimates that, should the developer's future titles be as popular as its Halo franchise (which typically sold 10 million units a piece), they could sell as many as 15 million units by virtue of Bungie's new multiplatform ambitions. According to his calculations, Activision stands to make $65 million off the first successful Bungie title should it match the success of the Halo series.

The time to test Pachter's calculations might be closer than you'd think -- he reports that the first Bungivision product, which is set in an "action game universe," is "well along in its development." We're not sure how "well along" said title actually is, but we'll keep our ears perked up for an announcement at E3. An announcement for Guitar Halo. There, we said it, alright? We were all thinking it, and now it's out there.

JoystiqPachter: First Activision-Bungie game 'well along' in development, will sell at least 10 million units originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystbungiebungivisionbuyouthalomichael-pachterMicrosoftpachterpartnershipXbox-360Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:19:00 EST<![CDATA[Netflix to gain two million subscribers from consoles in 2010]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/09/netflix-to-gain-two-million-subscribers-from-consoles-in-2010/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/09/netflix-to-gain-two-million-subscribers-from-consoles-in-2010/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/09/netflix-to-gain-two-million-subscribers-from-consoles-in-2010/#comments Analyst Michael Pachter says that despite a lower amount of new Netflix subscriptions lately, video game consoles will still give the movie rental service a boost this year, providing over two million new subscribers thanks to the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo Wii. Pachter suggests that the Xbox 360 will continue to provide 350,000 new subscribers, and the PS3 and the Wii will each turn in around 800,000 new subscribers this year.

But Pachter also says that future growth is limited -- the PS3 doesn't have quite the install base that the Xbox does and, while there are a lot of Wiis out there, Pachter's firm believes that most of those consoles aren't even connected to the Internet ("we estimate fewer than 35%," he writes). So the total new subscribers estimated for 2011 drops down to 900K to 1.2 million. That's still a lot of MST3K downloads -- because come on, if you're watching anything but that on Netflix, you're crazy -- but not enough to keep Netflix's estimated growth from being called "unsustainable."

JoystiqNetflix to gain two million subscribers from consoles in 2010 originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 09 Apr 2010 20:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystmichael-pachterMicrosoftnetflixNintendoWiiXbox-360Fri, 09 Apr 2010 20:01:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Nintendo pressured by Japanese media into early 3DS reveal]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/31/analyst-nintendo-pressured-by-japanese-media-into-early-3ds-rev/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/31/analyst-nintendo-pressured-by-japanese-media-into-early-3ds-rev/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/31/analyst-nintendo-pressured-by-japanese-media-into-early-3ds-rev/#comments M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon claims that the Japanese press were "all over" the upcoming 3DS before Nintendo revealed it, forcing an announcement out of the company's headquarters in Japan. In a recent CNBC report, Pidgeon alleges that the media in Japan had "talked with suppliers there and Nintendo just wanted to get out ahead by breaking the news to prevent a leak." This comes in response to the oddly-timed reveal of Nintendo's next handheld device, less than a week before the fourth iteration of its Nintendo DS was set to land on retail shelves.

"Does it clash with the DSi XL? Yes it does," Pidgeon says. He goes on to claim that (even though stock prices for Nintendo jumped following the 3DS announcement), "the corporate parent in Japan may not be acting in the best interest of Nintendo of America." Alright, so, while we're not convinced that those looking to buy a brand new handheld from Nintendo are necessarily the same crowd snatching up a DSi XL, it's also probably not in Nintendo of America's best interests to have console announcements thrust upon it suddenly by the Japanese parent corp. Either way -- if it is true -- good on you Japanese press!

[Via Gamasutra]

JoystiqAnalyst: Nintendo pressured by Japanese media into early 3DS reveal originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 31 Mar 2010 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>3dsanalystbilly-pidgeonDSdsi-xlhardwarejapanese-pressNintendonintendo-of-americanintendo-of-japanWed, 31 Mar 2010 19:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts predict hardware, software drops in February NPD]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/09/analysts-predict-hardware-software-drops-in-february/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/09/analysts-predict-hardware-software-drops-in-february/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/09/analysts-predict-hardware-software-drops-in-february/#commentsIn advance of NPD sales results for February 2010, analysts are predicting year-over-year declines for pretty much everything. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, according to Gamasutra, is predicting that hardware and software sales will decline 10 percent, with Wii hardware sales hit particularly hard (around 40 percent) due to shortages. Beyond the Wii, the continuing decline of the music genre is partly to blame for the reduced sales.

Analyst Colin Sebastian is guessing at a 15 percent decline, despite encouraging early sales for games like Heavy Rain and preorders for games like Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (which, as an early March release, may fit into the NPD February sales period) and God of War III. The fact that high-profile games are likely to show sharp declines after strong first-week sales will prevent software trends from turning for the better.

JoystiqAnalysts predict hardware, software drops in February NPD originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcolin-sebastianmichael-pachterMicrosoftNintendonpdWiiXbox-360Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:20:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts: No cause for concern over reported unpaid Modern Warfare 2 bonuses]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/#comments Following the departures of two Infinity Ward executives, a related story has gained significant traction and deserves some attention. BingeGamer reports that the development studio "has yet to be paid a single dime in royalties for Modern Warfare 2," ostensibly to be paid by publisher Activision. As Infinity Ward is a wholly-owned Activision studio, we turned to some leading industry analysts to explain what appears to be a private contractual matter.

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich tells Joystiq, "I couldn't speak to what the royalty agreement between Activision and Infinity Ward is. If royalties haven't been paid out yet, I wouldn't consider that too alarming. The game has only been out for a little over 90 days. Additionally, it is common to see royalty agreements based upon factors such as hitting release date, review scores (a.k.a. 'Metacritic Clauses') or revenue milestones. I think if you just replace the word 'royalties' with 'bonus' it should make some more sense."

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter explains, "I don't know the nature of [Infinity Ward's] contract, but my bonus is paid after year-end (in February), and theirs is likely the same. The idea that they haven't been paid 'yet' is not all that surprising. The year just closed, and the final SEC documents were filed yesterday." He continues, "IW sold itself to Activision back in 2004, Activision owns the [Call of Duty] IP, and the guys leaving were employees under some kind of contract. Activision appears to believe that they have breached this contract, and may or may not be justified in withholding bonuses."

Check out Pachter and Divnich's full analyses after the break.

[Editor's note: This post has been altered to reflect updates in the Infinity Ward leadership shakeup.]

Continue reading Analysts: No cause for concern over reported unpaid Modern Warfare 2 bonuses

JoystiqAnalysts: No cause for concern over reported unpaid Modern Warfare 2 bonuses originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystbonusescontractseedarfinancialinfinity-wardjesse-divnichmichael-pachterMicrosoftmodern-warfare-2royaltiessaleswedbush-morganXbox-360Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: Natal more than $50 after all, DSi XL won't sell]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/25/pachter-natal-more-than-50-after-all-dsi-xl-wont-sell/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/25/pachter-natal-more-than-50-after-all-dsi-xl-wont-sell/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/25/pachter-natal-more-than-50-after-all-dsi-xl-wont-sell/#comments In a stunning show that game industry analysts indeed are fallible human beings, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has changed his mind on Natal's supposed price. The prolific analyst prognosticated last year that price would be the primary factor in moving Natal hardware, leading him to predict that it would launch for less than $50. However, he now tells IndustryGamers that it will likely cost more, noting, "consumers will come to believe that the product and software has a lot of value." Furthermore, Pachter says that the higher that Microsoft and Sony price their motion controls, the less likely a consumer is to buy the competing product. In other words, if you spend $100 on Natal, you probably won't be too keen to plunk down another $100 for Sony's motion controller (and vice versa).

Pachter also tackles the DSi XL. He has some choice words for the beefy handheld, pointing out the $60 difference between the DS Lite and DSi XL models. "I'm not sure that bigger screens provide the value that Nintendo thinks," says Pachter, adding his belief that the entire DS line is due for a price cut. He concludes the device won't succeed at launch "since it costs only $10 less than a Wii."

Other topics discussed include Richard Garriott's foray into social media, the marketing of Dante's Inferno and the specter of third party success on the Wii -- "most third party Wii games just plain suck," says Pachter.

JoystiqPachter: Natal more than $50 after all, DSi XL won't sell originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 25 Feb 2010 19:54:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdsi-xlmichael-pachterMicrosoftnatalNintendoplaystation-motion-controllerProject-NatalWiiXbox-360Thu, 25 Feb 2010 19:54:00 EST<![CDATA[Report: Games industry to $65 billion by 2013]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/19/report-games-industry-to-65-billion-by-2013/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/19/report-games-industry-to-65-billion-by-2013/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/19/report-games-industry-to-65-billion-by-2013/#comments According to IndustryGamers, a report from market intelligence firm Strategy Analystics predicts that the video game industry is primed for some serious growth in the coming years. Specifically, the report states that the worldwide game industry will likely reach revenues of $64.9 billion by 2013. As the industry just recently reached a value of 46.5 billion in 2009, that's an increase of $18.4 billion, or 39.5% over the next three years.

The report notes that sales of packaged software will increase, but increased sales of digital goods, in-game ads and subscriptions will play the primary role in growth. Specifically, online games are expected to grow to $24.8 billion by 2013, accounting for 38 percent of the overall games market. The firm expects social games to take up a major portion of growth, specifically the sale of virtual goods for use in online games (think Farmville).

Now, if you'll excuse us, Joystiq Publishing really needs to get to work on Social Networking Town, the social networking game in which you buy virtual people to fill your virtual in-game social networking friends list. Once that's done, you can play virtual social networking games, in which additional virtual goods are available. The only way to win is to never stop playing!

JoystiqReport: Games industry to $65 billion by 2013 originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 19 Feb 2010 23:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2013analystbusinessfinancialstrategy-analyticsFri, 19 Feb 2010 23:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Time for another Wii price drop]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/16/analyst-time-for-another-wii-price-drop/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/16/analyst-time-for-another-wii-price-drop/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/16/analyst-time-for-another-wii-price-drop/#commentsSomebody had to be the first to start it up again. Last year, analysts clamored for months about the need for a Wii price drop, a din Nintendo quelled by actually dropping the price of the Wii to $200. On Industry Gamers, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey has kicked off the next round of calling for a discount, declaring that Nintendo needs to cut the price of the console to $150 to stop the declining sales and fill out as much of its install base as it can before its competitors' motion controls hit the market.

"We believe they also need to generate strong hardware sales momentum into their competitors release," Hickey said, "or face the draconian consumer perception of the Wii having a dramatically reduced entertainment value proposition over a faded technology innovation; Rock Band anyone?" In other words, with compelling motion control devices on the way from Microsoft and Sony, Nintendo needs to do something drastic to prevent the Wii from slipping from #1 to #1 by a smaller margin.

JoystiqAnalyst: Time for another Wii price drop originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 16 Feb 2010 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystjanco-partnersmike-hickeyNintendoprice-cutprice-dropWiiTue, 16 Feb 2010 20:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Regular franchise updates still risky, says investment firm [update]]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/16/regular-franchise-updates-still-risky-analyst-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/16/regular-franchise-updates-still-risky-analyst-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/16/regular-franchise-updates-still-risky-analyst-says/#comments There's nothing quite like an investment firm's corporate finance director to ruin your company's carefully orchestrated release strategy. Speaking to GI.biz (account required) IBIS Capital's Tim Merel cast some aspersions on the common industry strategy of frequently iterating on major franchises. He noted that major franchises are receiving increasing investments and producing increasing returns, but added that there is a significant risk involved. "The gaming equivalent of Eddie Murphy's Pluto Nash ($100m cost, $4.4m revenue) is what scares the money men," said Merel, "so the risks of launching new franchises or making a mess of existing franchises becomes enormous."

Merel elaborated that the major fear is that the games industry will follow the Hollywood path, "with accountants and lawyers running the show" while developers are relegated to the role of "execution monkeys" -- sounds like someone's been reading Bobby Kotick's diary. According to Merel, it makes sense to invest in major properties in the "short-to-medium term, but overdoing it could become very "risky."

Of course, all this comes on the heels of Ubisoft announcing its plans to "come out more often" with new titles. The company even went so far as to aim for 12-18 month release schedules for its major franchise titles. Meanwhile, Activision makes no secret of its own strategy, iterating its franchises every single year (though it's hard to argue with its success so far).

Update: Tim Merel is the corporate finance director for IBIS Capital, not an analyst as we previously wrote.

JoystiqRegular franchise updates still risky, says investment firm [update] originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 16 Feb 2010 11:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystbusinessibis-capitalMicrosoftNintendotim-merelubisoftWiiXbox-360Tue, 16 Feb 2010 11:35:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Mass Effect 2 outsold everything else 6-to-1 in Jan.]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/09/analyst-mass-effect-2-outsold-everything-else-6-to-1/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/09/analyst-mass-effect-2-outsold-everything-else-6-to-1/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/09/analyst-mass-effect-2-outsold-everything-else-6-to-1/#commentsIf you bought Mass Effect 2 and you like being on the winning "team" when it comes to game trends, high five. According to DFC Intelligence, BioWare's latest spacefaring adventure sold an estimated 1.1 million copies (of the Xbox 360 version) in January -- six times the sales of any other game. Estimating game sales based on GamerDNA activity, DFC also believes that there was a significant uptick in play of Mass Effect as well, "likely supported by the ability to transfer a save file from a completed Mass Effect game into Mass Effect 2 where several key player decisions in the first game could be carried over into the second game."

The other leading Xbox 360 sellers in DFC's estimate include Darksiders (150,000), Bayonetta (170,000) and Army of Two: The 40th Day (175,000) -- with Dark Void somewhat of a surprise bomb (22,000).

JoystiqAnalyst: Mass Effect 2 outsold everything else 6-to-1 in Jan. originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystArmy-of-Two-The-40th-Daybayonettabiowaredarksiders-wrath-of-wardfc-intelligenceeaElectronic-Artsgamerdnamass-effect-2MicrosoftsalesXbox-360Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Report: Global PS3 market share increasing]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/08/report-global-ps3-market-share-increasing/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/08/report-global-ps3-market-share-increasing/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/08/report-global-ps3-market-share-increasing/#commentsYou may have assumed this from the climbing PS3 sales Sony reported last week, but a report from Research and Markets provides further confirmation that the system is increasing in popularity around the world.

"The PS3 is dominant in Japan and Korea," the report notes, "and as of June 2008, has begun to outsell the Xbox 360 in Europe. It is also steadily increasing its market share in all other regions across the globe, including in the North American market." The Xbox 360 is still ahead of the PS3 in North America. It's worth noting that the increase in sales in Europe predates the price drop and introduction of the PS3 Slim.

Research and Markets also provided a bit more information about the distribution of console sales. Though North America remains the largest market for consoles, "The high population density and rapid uptake of technology in countries such as Japan and Korea, and to a lesser extent in Singapore and Hong Kong, see a disproportionately high level of console sales compared to the rest of the world," the report reads." Console sales are also fairly high in Western Europe and are growing considerably in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and other areas in Asia."

JoystiqReport: Global PS3 market share increasing originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 08 Feb 2010 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystmarket-sharemarketshareps3-slimresearch-and-marketsMon, 08 Feb 2010 19:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: PS3 continues to set records, Wii and software sales down]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/02/analyst-ps3-continues-to-set-records-wii-and-software-sales-do/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/02/analyst-ps3-continues-to-set-records-wii-and-software-sales-do/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/02/analyst-ps3-continues-to-set-records-wii-and-software-sales-do/#comments Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia says that Sony is in for a good 2010 -- he expects the PlayStation 3 to experience its largest year-over-year growth from last month's sales among all consoles, and for Sony to beat its own record from the month before for the console's best sales ever. The PS3 appears to be on a roll, and January sales are expected to continue the trend.

Bhatia also says that the Wii's sales are being hurt by "meaningful shortages," and points out that just 28% of the stores NPD checked in January had Nintendo's console in stock. Bhatia also suggests that Xbox 360 sales would be up slightly, due to a big GameStop promotion, and that software sales would be down in general. Not unexpected, given that January almost never matches up to the frenzy of the holiday season, but 2010 has already started off with a bang in terms of quality releases. NPD's official info, released soon, will let us know if there were sales to match.

JoystiqAnalyst: PS3 continues to set records, Wii and software sales down originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystarvind-bhatiagamestopjanuary-2010MicrosoftNintendonpdpredictionspromotionreportssalessoftwaresonyWiiXbox-360Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts: Gamers won't care about iPad]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/27/analysts-gamers-wont-care-about-ipad/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/27/analysts-gamers-wont-care-about-ipad/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/27/analysts-gamers-wont-care-about-ipad/#comments
Now that the gaming public at large has had a chance to discuss Apple's iPad, it's for the analysts to weigh in. Speaking with IndustryGamers, prior to the iPad announcement, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter intimated that he didn't expect the tablet set the gaming world on fire. "It's going to have limited appeal to gamers, although some people will buy it obviously," said Pachter. He elaborated that the device could affect Nintendo's DS, though. In the end, however, Pachter expects the iPad to benefit the iPod Touch, thanks to a "cross-fertilization of games" between the platforms.

Meanwhile, EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, speaking after the iPad announcement, said that iPad games would likely have to cost $20 for publishers to "treat the iPad as a serious gaming device." Divnich noted to the low barrier of entry on the iPad / iPod as the sticking point, saying that big publishers have a hard time competing with indie developers that can sell games at rock-bottom prices.

He further elaborated that the competition on the App Store stifles big publisher profits, which in turn stifles innovation. "The lower the profit potential, the less resources and desires there are to push gaming standards ahead." Frankly, that point of view seems to neglect that many low-budget indie games do push gaming standards ahead, but that's another post altogether.

The point is, it looks like gamers may not be flocking to the iPad. Honestly, we could have told you that, as the above snippet from Joystiq's company chatroom demonstrates.

JoystiqAnalysts: Gamers won't care about iPad originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 27 Jan 2010 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystappleeedaripadiPodmichael-pachterWed, 27 Jan 2010 20:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Plummeting PS2 and PSP sales shrunk Sony's market share in 2009]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/18/plummeting-ps2-and-psp-sales-shrunk-sonys-market-share-in-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/18/plummeting-ps2-and-psp-sales-shrunk-sonys-market-share-in-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/18/plummeting-ps2-and-psp-sales-shrunk-sonys-market-share-in-2009/#comments For many, 2009 was the year Sony started turning things around: the PS3 finally dropped to an affordable price with an ad campaign that didn't give children nightmares. However, Gamasutra's Matt Matthews points out that in terms of revenue, 2009 is one of the worst years for the company. Whereas Sony was able to generate $6.4 billion in revenue from its family of PlayStation products in 2008, the company was only able to rake in $5.1 billion in 2009 -- that's a drop of $1.3 billion, or 20 percent.

While Microsoft and Nintendo also shed some revenue in the difficult economic climate, their losses seem insignificant in comparison: about $200 million each. Matthews notes that a large portion of Sony's lost revenue in 2009 comes from sagging sales of its decade-old PS2 platform. The (understandable) lack of software sales on the PS2 resulted in the loss of approximately $700 million in revenue, while hardware sales have contracted another $150 million.

The PSP also had a difficult year, and it appears the PSP Go hasn't turned around Sony's fortunes. According to Gamasutra's analysis, hardware and software sales on Sony's handheld shrank by about $425 million in 2009. With the demise of the PS2, and the languishing state of the PSP, Sony's former dominance of the market seems but a memory.

JoystiqPlummeting PS2 and PSP sales shrunk Sony's market share in 2009 originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 18 Jan 2010 23:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystgamasutrarevenuesonyMon, 18 Jan 2010 23:15:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR predicts DS2 will be announced this year]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/#comments In a recent report, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has predicted that Nintendo will announce its next handheld -- let's call it the DS2 -- within the next eight months. Furthermore, Divnich believes that the product will be released within fifteen months. "one of the biggest reasons for Nintendo's success in the handheld market is their ability to remove opportunity gaps for competitors to enter," says Divnich, citing the early release of the DS, which effectively stymied the chances for the PSP a year later. Other reasons to release new hardware include the increasing threat of piracy and the specter of declining support from publishers (Ubisoft, for example, has announced plans to scale back support for Nintendo platforms).

Frankly, the DS hardware is getting a little long in the tooth; as such, it's not too hard to imagine Nintendo ramping up for the release of its inevitable successor. Hell, even Nintendo President Satoru Iwata has been talking about it. Or has he?

JoystiqEEDAR predicts DS2 will be announced this year originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 15 Jan 2010 20:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystDSds2eedarjesse-divnichnintendoFri, 15 Jan 2010 20:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: More console price cuts coming by summer]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/12/pachter-more-console-price-cuts-coming-by-summer/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/12/pachter-more-console-price-cuts-coming-by-summer/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/12/pachter-more-console-price-cuts-coming-by-summer/#comments
In his latest advisory note to investors, Wedbush Morgan prognosticator and analyst Michael Pachter goes on record with his belief that we'll see "another price cut for both systems some time this year (around summer)," noting in the email that "because its manufacturing costs are lower, Microsoft has the ability to lower price as early as March or April."

In lieu of a price cut on Microsoft's part so soon, Pachter feels that the company may instead introduce "a more feature-packed Xbox 360 in early 2010 (likely with a 250GB hard drive) at the same $299 price point." The great seer believes that Microsoft will only drop the price on its console before summer "if it begins to lose significant market share to Sony," adding that he anticipates last fall's price cut on PS3 will continue to help Sony gain ground on Microsoft.

On the portable front, Pachter doesn't expect PSP Go (remember that?) to make much headway this year unless Sony prices it "more reasonably," and says that the biggest challenge facing Nintendo DS is "its own high installed base," stating that he anticipates sales of the handheld to steadily decline in 2010. Good thing Nintendo's started talking about a "DS2," huh?

JoystiqPachter: More console price cuts coming by summer originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 12 Jan 2010 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdsmichael-pachterMicrosoftnintendoPlaystation 3Playstation3price-cutpsp-goSONYxbox-360Tue, 12 Jan 2010 20:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter predicts 'solid' holiday for GameStop, industry sales 'rebound' in 2010]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/06/pachter-predicts-solid-holiday-for-gamestop-industry-sales-r/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/06/pachter-predicts-solid-holiday-for-gamestop-industry-sales-r/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/06/pachter-predicts-solid-holiday-for-gamestop-industry-sales-r/#comments In a recent sales projection sent to Joystiq centering around GameStop, everyone's favorite games analyst, Michael Pachter, offered some viewpoints on December sales for GameStop, taking care to also paint his own portrait on industry sales as a whole for 2010. He points to Modern Warfare 2 and hardware sales (thanks, price drops!) as top earners for GameStop.

Pachter is hopeful for 2010, expecting a full-on rebound in game sales starting January. He points to the great exodus of fourth quarter 2009 as a factor behind the increased game sales, with first quarter releases of Bioshock 2, Splinter Cell: Conviction and Army of Two: The 40th Day mentioned as expected top earners. He says this uptick in sales will benefit GameStop, which he surmises will have about 30 percent share of the software market in January -- something that will insulate against what he expects to be a year of gradual decline in Wii hardware sales.

JoystiqPachter predicts 'solid' holiday for GameStop, industry sales 'rebound' in 2010 originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystDSgamestopmichael-pachterMicrosoftNintendosales-analysisWiiXbox-360Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Spoiler alert: Famitsu's astrologer predicts 2010's gaming trends]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/23/spoiler-alert-famitsus-astrologer-predicts-2010s-gaming-trends/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/23/spoiler-alert-famitsus-astrologer-predicts-2010s-gaming-trends/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/23/spoiler-alert-famitsus-astrologer-predicts-2010s-gaming-trends/#comments
[Wikimedia Commons]
While we have analysts like Michael Pachter to tell us the future of gaming, Famitsu has Yusho Fukuda, a real astrologer (well, as real as an astrologer can claim to be). Why bother looking at market trends and such mumbo-jumbo when the stars have all the information about the game industry's upcoming plans?

What totally specific insights did the cosmos reveal to Fukuda for Famitsu's end-of-year issue? "A game will come out in the first half of the year that will touch off a major boom," Fukuda writes, as translated by 1UP . "And another game will follow upon that in the second half." Also, there will be delays, disputes between publishers, and "we may see a price drop in hardware or software in November."

Fukuda offered predictions for each of the hardware companies as well. Nintendo will advertise a game all summer and release it in the fall; Sony "will release a hit game in 2010 that is based off an older title and will attract attention for games based on history and that feature a large cast of characters;" and Microsoft will sell a game this year involving "adventuring around the world, or examining a map and doing something based off that." Since astrology is a hard science, all of this is 100% guaranteed to happen exactly as Fukuda predicted.

JoystiqSpoiler alert: Famitsu's astrologer predicts 2010's gaming trends originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 23 Dec 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystastrologyfamitsuyusho-fukudaWed, 23 Dec 2009 13:00:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR: 2010 delays smart decision for game publishers]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/#comments With so many publishers intentionally pushing games out of the holiday season, Q1 2010 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive release windows in the history of gaming. Bayonetta, Army of Two, Dark Void, MAG, BioShock 2, Dante's Inferno, Lost Planet 2, Heavy Rain, Aliens Vs Predator, Final Fantasy XIII, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, God of War III, Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, No More Heroes 2, and Red Steel 2 are just some of the games to come out in the first three months of 2010. Doesn't it seem as though the industry is preparing for yet another cannibalistic quarter, akin to the holiday?

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich doesn't necessarily think so. He argues that "publishers who purposely diverted their AAA holiday titles into 2010 made the proper decision and will likely realize stronger sales with a post-holiday release than a holiday release." And the reasoning? The combination of Mario, Modern Warfare 2 and Assassin's Creed 2 predictably impacted the sales of all other games. "High quality games are selling less units in the 2009 holiday season compared to 2008," Divinich noted by analyzing the sales of games with Metacritic scores of 80 and above.

Still, we can't help but look at the first paragraph with awe. Can our wallets even survive an onslaught of that magnitude? We have an easy solution for publishers: there's an entire "summer" season to consider when releasing games.

JoystiqEEDAR: 2010 delays smart decision for game publishers originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdelayseedarjesse-divnichq1-2010Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts: Modern Warfare 2 composed over 22 percent of November game sales]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/09/analysts-modern-warfare-2-composed-over-22-percent-of-november/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/09/analysts-modern-warfare-2-composed-over-22-percent-of-november/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/09/analysts-modern-warfare-2-composed-over-22-percent-of-november/#comments In one day, the NPD Group will release its game sales report for the month of November, which should reveal the (near) exact number of units Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has sold in the US thus far. In the meantime, Gamespot reported on two analysts who have predicted the portion of November software sales that were made up of Warfare purchases. Industry analyst superstar Michael Pachter says the game accounts for 23 percent of total game sales. However, Pacific Crest analyst Evan Wilson has it pegged at 25 percent of total November sales.

Wilson added that this feat is made especially impressive due to his firm's prediction that "this November's sales will match the month's highest historical total on record." In related news, news stories dealing with Modern Warfare 2 composed 67.2 percent of all news stories over the past month. Oh, wait -- now it's 67.5 percent!

JoystiqAnalysts: Modern Warfare 2 composed over 22 percent of November game sales originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 09 Dec 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystcall-of-dutycall-of-duty-modern-warfare-2evan-wilsonfpsinfinity-wardmichael-pachterMicrosoftmodern-warfare-2Xbox-360Wed, 09 Dec 2009 10:30:00 EST