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The gaming industry wasn't immune to the economic turmoil around the globe in 2009, but it appears that more people are playing games -- even if they aren't necessarily buying "core" games. USA Today has a year-end piece noting that 2008's record $21.3 billion in US sales isn't in the cards this year, with NPD data revealing that, as of November, consumers bought 12.2 million consoles, compared to 14.2 million the year prior. An optimist could argue that'll be made up for in software sales, but we'll need to wait until January for that data.

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich reiterated that "the big games are getting bigger," indicating that blockbuster, marketed games are siphoning more sales from everyone else. Then again, casual games like Farmville on Facebook had 65 million players. A complication here is that retail sales may be declining (which is tracked by organizations like NPD), but we don't really know what goes on in closed digital distribution systems. The actual industry sales figures may be debatable, but we'll take the rise of casual games as a sign of demographic diversity within the industry.

Some people have decried the current calendar year for being light on high-quality games -- but they can't frown upon the quantity of titles released in 2009. According to Gamespot, the latest EEDAR GamePulse report reveals that 1,099 games were released to retail outlets throughout the year -- a slight increase over the 1,092 games which hit the market in 2008.

That's not exactly good news -- according to the report, more games (such as Modern Warfare 2) are becoming permanent staples on store shelves, limiting the amount of free space for other new titles. Also, the amount of expendable cash folks have to spend on these games is dwindling. But ... but let's not think about that, okay? It's Christmas. Happy thoughts, you guys.

With so many publishers intentionally pushing games out of the holiday season, Q1 2010 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive release windows in the history of gaming. Bayonetta, Army of Two, Dark Void, MAG, BioShock 2, Dante's Inferno, Lost Planet 2, Heavy Rain, Aliens Vs Predator, Final Fantasy XIII, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, God of War III, Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, No More Heroes 2, and Red Steel 2 are just some of the games to come out in the first three months of 2010. Doesn't it seem as though the industry is preparing for yet another cannibalistic quarter, akin to the holiday?

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich doesn't necessarily think so. He argues that "publishers who purposely diverted their AAA holiday titles into 2010 made the proper decision and will likely realize stronger sales with a post-holiday release than a holiday release." And the reasoning? The combination of Mario, Modern Warfare 2 and Assassin's Creed 2 predictably impacted the sales of all other games. "High quality games are selling less units in the 2009 holiday season compared to 2008," Divinich noted by analyzing the sales of games with Metacritic scores of 80 and above.

Still, we can't help but look at the first paragraph with awe. Can our wallets even survive an onslaught of that magnitude? We have an easy solution for publishers: there's an entire "summer" season to consider when releasing games.

Though it's always risky to call a winner before the race is over, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich figures there's basically no chance that the best-selling home console of this generation will be anything but the Nintendo Wii -- even if Nintendo were to suffer an unusually bad few years, and its competitors were to enjoy unusually good years.

Here's Divnich's "worst-case scenario": "For the Wii, let us assume a 25% decline in sales next year," he postulates, "followed by two years of 30% declines, and a 50% decline in 2013. For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

Even with those unlikely numbers, Divnich says, the Wii comes out selling about as much as the PS2 has, and claims victory over the Xbox 360 and PS3. The reality will, of course, be much more complicated than the projection. Divnich notes that Nintendo is likely to release some kind of new hardware, either in the form of a bundle or an upgraded system, that will affect sales; "Additionally, we know that Sony plans to support the PS3 through 2016, which means there are three additional years where Sony could gain a tremendous amount of ground on the Wii and Xbox 360 by being able to offer an affordable Blu-ray player to consumers (very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player)."

Still, it seems that the only chance for a second-place Wii is for the DS to eventually become large enough to count as a home console.

Speaking during a presentation at the recent Montreal International Game Summit (as covered by Edge), EEDAR Director of Analyst Services Jesse Divnich highlighted a tenuous connection between game review scores and commercial success. In the case of Nintendo's DS, Divnich is quoted as saying "scores don't matter." But do they matter among a more dedicated gaming audience?

"When we did compare Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 only games, we did, to no surprise, find that review scores highly correlated to sales," Divnich told Joystiq. "However, marketing correlation was still just a tad bit more." According to EEDAR's research, marketing has played the "more crucial role" with DS games and, to some degree, Wii games (a point Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime seems to agree on).

While emphasizing that his aim was not to dismiss the value of critical evaluation, Divnich suggested that marketing plays a more persuasive role in what has become a burgeoning industry. "Video games are now a mass marketed product, it is a product that targets all major demographics, very similar to television or movies or any other sector within the entertainment division." While Joystiq readers may lock out the din of marketing as they tap the F5 key and anxiously wait for review embargoes to lift, the industry has grown to encompass people who aren't as exposed to the likes of Metacritic.

It seems that being informed takes precedence over being entertained -- at least until you start playing the game. "Quality does matter," concluded Divnich, "but marketing matters just a little bit more."

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich recently told Industry Gamers that the low sales reported by NPD in October can be attributed mainly to casual gamers. Specifically, he placed the blame on "non-traditional and casual gamers who have failed to make follow-up purchases." Conversely, Divnich said that core game sales have been "quite healthy" throughout 2009. So, what can drive casual gamers back to the cash register? "it will take the introduction of some new style of gameplay or peripheral before we see a resurgence in the casual and non-traditional markets," said Divnich, noting that his company expects a new DS to arrive in 2010 (presumably a next generation model, not another redesign). In addition, Divnich believes that Microsoft's Project Natal could reinvigorate interest in motion-controlled gaming among both core and casual gamers.

Divnich also reiterated his belief that the Wii will remain on top for the rest of the year. He also thinks the PS3 could outsell the Xbox 360 over the holidays. He did note, however, that PS3 sales are "declining much faster post-price drop than the Xbx 360," suggesting that it's too early to claim any definite winners in the long run.

EEDAR has released its predictions for October sales charts in North America. Analyst Jesse Divnich expects year-over-year declines for every console except the PS3 -- but also expects the Wii to regain its place at the lead, with an estimated 600,000 units sold. Divnich predicts that the Wii will remain at the top for the rest of the year -- based partly on New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Divnich expects the title to lose initially to Modern Warfare 2 in November, but pick up sales in the holidays and become the best-selling game of the year.

Other games expected to pick up in the holidays include Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City and Brutal Legend. Divnich expects both games to underperform in October (coming in at under 100,000 and 300,000 units, respectively), but to receive significant boosts in the holidays.

Demon's Souls, however, may exceed expectations. Divnich estimates that Atlus's punishing RPG sold 100,000 copies in October.

If you haven't heard, the PlayStation Wii is so successful, it pretty much prints money. Wait, Sony didn't make the Wii? Then how did the market analysts of DFC Intelligence come to the conclusion that "Sony was saved by the success of the Wii?"

According to DFC, the Wii's mainstream appeal forced Microsoft into a successful, but not entirely dominant position. "The main danger Sony faced was that the Xbox 360 would become embedded as the system of choice. Instead consumers flocked to the Nintendo Wii. The Xbox 360 had solid sales, but they have not been enough to give Microsoft anywhere near a breakout market position," the report explains.

Should enthusiasm for the Wii wane this holiday season, the recent price drop, coupled with with impending release of God of War III, finally positions the PS3 as a viable choice for mainstream consumers, the report notes. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich agrees, pointing out that Sony can finally utilize its leverage from the previous generation. "People who purchase a PS2 are more likely to purchase a PS3 in the future. Consumers, believe it or not, are pretty loyal."

Three years after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray is also finally becoming a marketable feature for mainstream consumers, the report argues. "This holiday season Blu-ray movies are finally getting a major focus at retail ... Blu-ray clearly now becomes a strong selling point for the PlayStation 3." Undoubtedly, SCEA will create an ad that focuses on this aspect of the system that "only does everything."

While DFC's report comes off as incredibly bullish, it's understandable to see why there's some doubt over Sony's ability to capitalize on the moment. Let's not forget, this is a company that managed to fall from first to last place in the course of a year. "The cards are in Sony's favor and now is the time to make the most of them ... Now is the time for Sony to shine ... or else."

[Via CVG]

Source - Is it Time for the PlayStation 3 to Shine?
Source - How the venerable PlayStation 2 made it to 9 years old

Stat-tracking firms The Nielsen Company and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) are teaming up to deliver "unprecedented insight into the video games industry." Nielsen's data, which has brought plenty of controversy on its own, will be integrated into EEDAR's GamePulse subscription service. Nielsen gathers its data from 1,200 "active gamers" through a weekly survey, while EEDAR data mines and organizes using various categories.

The data will be combined beginning in March of 2010 and be available to both Nielsen Video Game Tracking and EEDAR subscribers. This may not mean much to the average gamer, but to stat-obsessed executives and folks in marketing departments, this is like licking triple-chocolate ice cream covered in bacon and honey.

2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.

The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.

Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).

It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.

In his latest "debriefing" on IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich suggets that the average score for Wii games may be improving because a significant portion of titles aren't being reviewed. Strictly comparing January to June, in both 2008 and 2009, the analyst group graphed the total number of titles released for the three major platforms and the percentages of those titles that were not reviewed (see above). The number at the bottom of each bar represents the number of titles released for the platform in the stated time period; while the percentage at the top corresponds to the quantity of those titles that was not reviewed.

Divnich recognizes that "while the Wii has experienced a rise in average review scores (from 60 to 66 in one year), this has come at the benefit of critics ignoring some titles that could have possibly dragged down the Wii's average." However, it's possible that such reviews could have also raised the average score -- we know, that's unlikey, but still. Additionally, the report notes that the unreviewed Wii games weren't "core-targeted titles," which also holds true for unreviewed games on Xbox 360 and PS3.

Divnich maintains that Wii games are getting better, but he concludes, "It is just coming at the cost of not reviewing the increase in casual and low-budget titles." He believes that a similar issue could appear occur with respect to PS3 and Xbox 360 as the consoles' casual demographics increase in conjunction with the continued growth of their install bases.

Yesterday, Electronic Arts CEO John Ricitiello pointed to a downward turn in game sales this summer as a prime culprit in what he called a "discouraging" August kickoff for one of the "highest-rated and best-marketed Madden titles in years." Still, that didn't explain the 42 percent decline in sales for the franchise on Nintendo's console. So, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, games market analyst at EEDAR, to get his thoughts on the fairly "oh, wow"-worthy revelation.

More than anything, Divnich believes that gamers' experience with last year's game on Wii influenced their decision to not give the franchise a second shot on the system. "I believe many diehard Madden fans, who transitioned from the PS2 to the Wii, made their yearly Madden purchase in 2008 and realized that the Wii could not offer the same experience they have grown accustom to (online play, realistic graphics, in-depth team management)," he told Joystiq.

The game's motion control gameplay features -- versus the familiar DualShock 2 -- might also have been a turn-off, Divnich said, likening it to the slow acceptance of console controllers for use in first-person shooters. "Anyone introduced to the FPS category through the keyboard/mouse combination even still today refuses to accept the analog controllers as a legitimate FPS controller," he remarked.

Ultimately, though, Divnich came back to the PS2-to-Wii user's experience with last year's Madden. "Avid Madden fans have the curse of knowledge ... and they know that Madden cannot offer the same experience on the Wii as it did for the PS2."

Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model.

Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software?

Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning?