Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com Joystiq http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.joystiq.com/media/feedlogo.gif Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com en-us Copyright 2013 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[3DS sold under cost since price cut, Nintendo 'hoping' to profit by March 2013]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/26/3ds-sold-under-cost-since-price-cut-nintendo-hoping-to-profit/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/26/3ds-sold-under-cost-since-price-cut-nintendo-hoping-to-profit/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/26/3ds-sold-under-cost-since-price-cut-nintendo-hoping-to-profit/#comments Nintendo took a big hit last year when it dropped the price of its then-nascent handheld, the 3DS, to $170 just a few months after initial launch. Such a hit, apparently, that Nintendo is selling the unit for less than it costs the company to produce, as revealed in the company's latest financial earnings. "Its hardware has been sold below cost because of its significant price cut in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012," the financial report says.

But don't count Nintendo out! The company says it "expects to cease selling it below cost by the middle of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013." Which, in normal human terms, means Nintendo expects to start making money on the console around August of this year. So, you know, if you're really trying to stick it to Nintendo, go buy the 3DS between now and August. That'll show 'em!

The 3DS currently sells for $170, down from the $250 price tag it launched with back March of 2011.

Update: We've added context from financial analyst extraordinaires Michael Pachter (of Wedbush Securities) and Jesse Divnich (of EEDAR) just below the break.

Continue reading 3DS sold under cost since price cut, Nintendo 'hoping' to profit by March 2013

Joystiq3DS sold under cost since price cut, Nintendo 'hoping' to profit by March 2013 originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 26 Apr 2012 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>3dscosteedarfinancial-reportfinancialsjesse-divnichmichael-pachternintendoprofitssaleswedbushwedbush-morganwedbush-securitiesThu, 26 Apr 2012 09:50:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts consider dance genre 'bubble,' Ubisoft says more 'The Experience' games possible]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2011/04/25/analysts-consider-dance-genre-bubble-ubisoft-says-more-the-e/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/04/25/analysts-consider-dance-genre-bubble-ubisoft-says-more-the-e/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/04/25/analysts-consider-dance-genre-bubble-ubisoft-says-more-the-e/#comments Ubisoft's Just Dance and its successful clones like Michael Jackson: The Experience, along with Harmonix's Dance Central, have established the dance genre as a viable market for milking. Now the industry must play the delicate game of sucking the marrow dry without creating a zombie.

Gamasutra hit up go-to industry analysts Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich for their takes on the sustainability of the genre. Both analysts essentially characterized dance games as part of a bubble that is largely unaffected by critical reception (UK hit Zumba Fitness has a 43 on Metacritic). "In short, yes, the dance category is a bubble," said Divnich, "much like most things in entertainment."

That doesn't mean that the bubble is about to burst -- or that the bottle of suds is close to empty. At least, Ubisoft is planning to keep on dipping in. The publisher's Tony Key teased that Michael Jackson: The Experience is "just the first 'The Experience' brand." He added that there's no reason why "another artist can't make a great dance game under 'The Experience brand,'" but didn't pitch any bright ideas. The Smurfs, anyone?

JoystiqAnalysts consider dance genre 'bubble,' Ubisoft says more 'The Experience' games possible originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 25 Apr 2011 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystsbubbledancedance-centralgamasutrajesse-divnichjust-dancejust-dance-2michael-jackson-the-experiencemichael-pachtermicrosoftnintendowiixboxMon, 25 Apr 2011 17:30:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR weighs in on NGP, speculates $299 to $349 price for Wi-Fi only model]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2011/02/03/eedar-weighs-in-on-ngp-speculates-299-to-349-price-for-wi-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/02/03/eedar-weighs-in-on-ngp-speculates-299-to-349-price-for-wi-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/02/03/eedar-weighs-in-on-ngp-speculates-299-to-349-price-for-wi-fi/#comments Analysis firm EEDAR has issued a report on the debut of the NGP, speculating on several areas, including hardware and software cost as well as the NGP's likelihood of success. The firm expects Sony's upcoming handheld to "handsomely surpass sales of its predecessor, the PSP," though the report adds that success will depend upon long-term publisher support and a competitive price.

Concerning the price, EEDAR predicts the Wi-Fi-only model to cost "between $299 to $349, but not to exceed $399 in the United States." Furthermore, the firm believes that some regions may not see the 3G version of the NGP at all. For comparison, the report notes EEDAR's estimate that 62 to 70 percent of iPads sold in North America are Wi-Fi-only models. Demand for a 3G model may be higher in Europe and Asia. EEDAR predicts that the NGP's 3G capabilities aren't designed to compete directly with mobile phone gaming -- clearly another area of interest for Sony -- as 3G is unsuitable for large game downloads. 3G functionality is more likely to be used for multiplayer and social functions.

The report includes a few more notable tidbits. Games, both downloadable and retail, are predicted to be priced between $40 and $50. Publishers are advised to get on board early, as the report notes "EEDAR is certain that the initial 18 months will produce significant hardware and software sales to support profitability for third‐party publishers." Finally, EEDAR expects more NGP information at GDC, while the first hands-on opportunities will have to wait for E3 2010. Rest assured that Joystiq will be attending both events.

JoystiqEEDAR weighs in on NGP, speculates $299 to $349 price for Wi-Fi only model originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 03 Feb 2011 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysiseedarjesse-divnichngpplaystationplaystation-vitapspsonyvitaThu, 03 Feb 2011 19:40:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR's Jesse Divnich estimates NGP will cost $300 to $350]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2011/01/27/eedars-jesse-divnich-estimates-ngp-will-cost-300-to-350/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/01/27/eedars-jesse-divnich-estimates-ngp-will-cost-300-to-350/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/01/27/eedars-jesse-divnich-estimates-ngp-will-cost-300-to-350/#comments Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich has a few ideas about what Sony meant by "an affordable price that's appropriate for the handheld gaming space" when talking about the NGP's launch price. Speaking with GamesIndustry, Divnich predicted that the device would retail for between $299 and $349 at launch, which ... um, seems a little high when compared to other contenders in the "handheld gaming space."

Divnich says that such a price wouldn't be prohibitive to your average Joe or Jane, explaining "The market is ripe for portable high-end gaming. The NGP will be a serious threat to all forms of portable entertainment," and later adding, "After seeing the specs today, if the NGP can't succeed, it is clear that the portable gaming landscape has forever changed." Wait, you're saying the popularity of casual mobile games like Angry Birds might last forever? Forever-ever? Forever-ever?

JoystiqEEDAR's Jesse Divnich estimates NGP will cost $300 to $350 originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 27 Jan 2011 20:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eedarjesse-divnichlaunchmsrpngpplaystationplaystation-vitapricepspsonyvitaThu, 27 Jan 2011 20:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Ars Technica takes a look at the surprising drop in retail game prices over time]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/ars-technica-takes-a-look-at-the-surprising-drop-in-retail-game/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/ars-technica-takes-a-look-at-the-surprising-drop-in-retail-game/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/ars-technica-takes-a-look-at-the-surprising-drop-in-retail-game/#commentsFiled under: , ,

When we're not spending $150 on "collector's edition" versions of games or buying $50 worth of post-launch DLC, we're spending less than ever on brand new retail copies of video games. Ars Technica explores the history of game prices in comparison to the current climate in a recent piece, astutely pointing out that when adjusted for inflation, game prices of yesteryear are vastly higher than today's Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 games (by as much as $40). As seen in the image above, Streets of Rage 2 brand new would've run $64.99 in 1993, amounting to $98.19 in 2010 dollars.

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich offered an explanation for the declining cost for brand new games at retail, saying the cause is the continually growing audience for video games. "Our industry continues to grow, and as such, so does the revenue, which increases competition in the market and generally results in bigger development budgets," Divnich posited. Of course, publishers are finding other ways to get our cash -- namely the aforementioned collector's/limited editions and various downloadable content. Still, though braving your local used game retailer might not be the most pleasurable experience every time, it offers another opportunity to pay less for games than ever before. As Ars says, "This is a fine time to be a gamer."

[Image credit: Ars Technica]

JoystiqArs Technica takes a look at the surprising drop in retail game prices over time originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 07 Oct 2010 07:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>ars-technicaeedargame-pricesjesse-divnichThu, 07 Oct 2010 07:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/06/analysts-weigh-in-on-panasonics-jungle/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/06/analysts-weigh-in-on-panasonics-jungle/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/10/06/analysts-weigh-in-on-panasonics-jungle/#commentsFiled under: , ,

New tech does not always equal gimme gimme -- according to several prominent analysts, Panasonic is set to engage in quite the uphill battle with its new handheld, The Jungle. Both Bill Pidgeon of M2 Research and David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers they believe the unit is "a non-starter."

Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets said it looks like "an uphill challenge to launch a new portable gaming device unless there is some meaningful differentiation or access to proprietary content," while EEDAR's Jesse Divnich offered that its success hinges on third-party support, saying that, "with any hardware platform regardless of its quality, the absence of strong third-party support will most certainly end in failure." All valid points, but should these guys be giving the device the benefit of the doubt?

As it stands right now, we don't know much about the system other than what it aims to do: give MMO players a dedicated piece of hardware so they can take their games on the go. Given how popular MMOs are (and, in turn, how much of the cash money they generate), from a business standpoint it would seem win-win; nobody else is offering something to MMO players who may want a bit of portability. But, on the other hand, the problem is -- at least according to these analysts -- that the handheld doesn't particularly fill a void that can't be filled by a netbook or laptop.

JoystiqAnalysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 06 Oct 2010 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystanalystsbill-pidgeoncolin-sebastiandavid-coledfc-intelligenceeedarjesse-divnichjunglelazard-capital-marketsm2-researchmobilepanasonicpanasonic-junglepcthe-jungleWed, 06 Oct 2010 08:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Xbox UK boss: Halo Reach will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/10/halo-reach-will-outsell-call-of-duty-black-ops-mcgill-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/10/halo-reach-will-outsell-call-of-duty-black-ops-mcgill-says/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/10/halo-reach-will-outsell-call-of-duty-black-ops-mcgill-says/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Continue reading Xbox UK boss: Halo Reach will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops

JoystiqXbox UK boss: Halo Reach will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 10 Sep 2010 13:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisioncall-of-duty-black-opshaloHalo-Reachjesse-divnichMichael-Pachtermicrosoftpcplaystationps3salesstephen-mcgillUKxboxFri, 10 Sep 2010 13:52:00 EST<![CDATA[Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/20/roundup-analyst-commentary-on-kinect-pricing/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/20/roundup-analyst-commentary-on-kinect-pricing/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/20/roundup-analyst-commentary-on-kinect-pricing/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Kinect retail box
Everybody has an opinion at the moment about Kinect's $150 price tag, but let's hear what the analysts who get paid for their opinions think. We've got reactions from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, after the break.

Continue reading Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing

JoystiqRoundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AnalystAnalystscolin-sebastianEEDARJesse-DivnichKinectlazard-capital-marketsMichael-PachtermicrosoftpricingWedbush-MorganxboxTue, 20 Jul 2010 13:32:00 EST<![CDATA[Divnich makes E3 predictions, expo to be 'inflection point' for game industry]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/13/eedar-makes-e3-predictions-expo-to-be-inflection-point-for-ga/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/13/eedar-makes-e3-predictions-expo-to-be-inflection-point-for-ga/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/13/eedar-makes-e3-predictions-expo-to-be-inflection-point-for-ga/#comments In his latest Divnich Debrief column at IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has made some predictions for E3 2010. Divnich sees this year's expo as a pivotal one for the industry, noting that new technologies like PlayStation Move, Project Natal and the 3DS must make a big splash. Otherwise, says Divnich, we may see industry funding driven toward sectors like MMOs and social gaming. Divnich sees the expo as an "inflection point" in gaming history, saying, "Either E3 2010 acts as a positive catalyst and boosts industry confidence, or it reinforces the negative notions about the long-term viability of traditional gaming."

Divnich makes a few predictions about the show, notably that Rockstar may reveal Grand Theft Auto 5, though it won't announce any hard street date if it does. Divnich believes, however, that you can expect a new teaser for Agent. Nintendo, meanwhile, will announce the official name of the 3DS and announce plans to launch the device in "at least two regions" this November. He also expects the unit will sell 5 million units by March 2011. Furthermore, Nintendo may finally show off its Vitality Sensor in more detail.

Beyond that, the show will likely revolve around Move, Project Natal and the 3DS. "Whatever the outcome or your own personal opinion, one thing is for certain," says Divnich, "E3 2010 is a must attend event for anyone with any vested interest in the video game space."

JoystiqDivnich makes E3 predictions, expo to be 'inflection point' for game industry originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 13 May 2010 22:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>agentDSe3-2010eedarjesse-divnichMicrosoftmovenatalNintendoplaystation-moveproject-natalrockstarWiiXbox-360Thu, 13 May 2010 22:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts discuss impact of EA Sports Online Pass]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/12/analysts-discuss-impact-of-ea-sports-online-pass/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/12/analysts-discuss-impact-of-ea-sports-online-pass/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/12/analysts-discuss-impact-of-ea-sports-online-pass/#comments Over at IndustryGamers, several analysts have chimed in on EA's latest assault on used game sales: The EA Sports Online Pass. The pass will offer players access to online features -- up to and possibly including online multiplayer -- on all future EA Sports titles starting with Tiger Woods PGA Tour 11. Should someone buy a game used, additional passes can be purchased for $10. The overall consensus among analysts: It's a good thing and a smart move on EA's part.

According to Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, it only makes sense that EA should be compensated for rendering online services. He noted that EA "currently does not get paid" by those who purchase used games and that the pass "is ensuring that second-hand purchasers will pay something for the maintenance of the server network and for access to premium content."

The majority of analysts agreed with Pachter, with EEDAR's Jesse Divnich noting that games now extend far beyond their own physical media. "Seven years ago, when you purchased Grand Theft Auto for $50, the entire experience was encapsulated on a DVD," said Divnich, "in 2010 that is no longer the case." He added that it is "perfectly reasonable" for EA to expect payment for features that aren't included directly on the disc. Also, DFC Intelligence's David Cole expects more companies to pursue similar programs in the future.

Meanwhile, Lazard Capital Markets' Cole Sebastian referred to the program as "a double-edged sword for publishers." While it may lower used sales, said Sebastian, it also diminishes the resale value of games that customers would trade in to purchase new ones.

JoystiqAnalysts discuss impact of EA Sports Online Pass originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 12 May 2010 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eaEA-Sportsea-sports-online-passElectronic-Artsjesse-divnichmichael-pachterMicrosoftonline-passproject-ten-dollarXbox-360Wed, 12 May 2010 18:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst ponders impact of MW2 'Stimulus Package' pricing and success]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/21/analyst-ponders-impact-of-mw2-stimulus-package-success/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/21/analyst-ponders-impact-of-mw2-stimulus-package-success/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/21/analyst-ponders-impact-of-mw2-stimulus-package-success/#comments On IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich examines the economic impact of Modern Warfare 2's "Stimulus Package" on consumers, business and the future of DLC. He notes that "as an economist" he's glad a publisher tested the boundaries of DLC pricing, as millions of consumers (around 25 percent of MW2 owners) proved willing to drop $15 on the map pack. He points out that "if consumers deem it unfair for companies to overcharge their products, it is similarly unfair for businesses to unknowingly under-price their products."

However, Divnich wonders about the long-term implications of continued high-priced MW2 DLC, should Activision go that route. He suggests that consumers could leave the Call of Duty "circle" for games like Battlefield: Bad Company 2, where the cost for new content over time appears to be lower. He also posits that "consumers could avoid the next iteration of the Call of Duty franchise, since again, cost of dedicated ownership is now much higher." Divnich explains that the current "situation" between Infinity Ward and Activision may cloud core consumer purchases of future DLC and the franchise, as well, compared to if everything had remained -- on the surface, at least -- hunky-dory.

JoystiqAnalyst ponders impact of MW2 'Stimulus Package' pricing and success originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 21 Apr 2010 14:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Activisionactivision-blizzardcall-of-dutycall-of-duty-modern-warfare-2dlceedarjesse-divnichmodern-warfare-2stimulus-packageWed, 21 Apr 2010 14:03:00 EST<![CDATA[GDC 2010: EEDAR on Achievements, user behavior]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/14/gdc-2010-eedar-on-achievements-user-behavior/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/14/gdc-2010-eedar-on-achievements-user-behavior/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/14/gdc-2010-eedar-on-achievements-user-behavior/#comments EEDAR hosted a two part panel at GDC this year. In the second half of the panel -- you can read about the first half here -- Jesse Divnich presented the results of an Xbox Live Achievement study the firm recently conducted. The info was pulled from a pool of 32 million data points -- provided by MyGamerCard.net -- and centered on a random sampling of 100 different Xbox 360 games.

Probably the most interesting statistic that Divnich dropped: An average of only 4 percent of Xbox gamers actually managed to earn all of the achievements in any given game. When focusing only on major, "AAA" titles, that number drops to 2 percent. Meanwhile, less than 10 percent of consumers get more than 80 percent of Achievements. Furthermore, Divnich noted that only 27 percent of users manage to unlock more than 50 percent of Achievements.

Divnich concluded his talk by saying that developers should learn as much as possible from Achievements. He advised studios to use them as motivational tool for users noting that the number of unlocked Achievements tends to drop off at around 30 percent. He added that gamers who manage to unlock at least 80 percent of Achievements are typically motivated to unlock the remaining 20 percent.

Finally, Divnich stated that developers can use Achievements as a form of direct user feedback. By observing which Achievements are unlocked, developers can see the parts of a game that players enjoy. This, in turn, can help developers decide what to focus on in the sequel. Beyond that, Achievement monitoring could even help them decide whether to make a sequel at all.

JoystiqGDC 2010: EEDAR on Achievements, user behavior originally appeared on Joystiq on Sun, 14 Mar 2010 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>achievementseedargdcgdc-2010jesse-divnichMicrosoftXbox-360Sun, 14 Mar 2010 17:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts: No cause for concern over reported unpaid Modern Warfare 2 bonuses]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/#comments Following the departures of two Infinity Ward executives, a related story has gained significant traction and deserves some attention. BingeGamer reports that the development studio "has yet to be paid a single dime in royalties for Modern Warfare 2," ostensibly to be paid by publisher Activision. As Infinity Ward is a wholly-owned Activision studio, we turned to some leading industry analysts to explain what appears to be a private contractual matter.

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich tells Joystiq, "I couldn't speak to what the royalty agreement between Activision and Infinity Ward is. If royalties haven't been paid out yet, I wouldn't consider that too alarming. The game has only been out for a little over 90 days. Additionally, it is common to see royalty agreements based upon factors such as hitting release date, review scores (a.k.a. 'Metacritic Clauses') or revenue milestones. I think if you just replace the word 'royalties' with 'bonus' it should make some more sense."

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter explains, "I don't know the nature of [Infinity Ward's] contract, but my bonus is paid after year-end (in February), and theirs is likely the same. The idea that they haven't been paid 'yet' is not all that surprising. The year just closed, and the final SEC documents were filed yesterday." He continues, "IW sold itself to Activision back in 2004, Activision owns the [Call of Duty] IP, and the guys leaving were employees under some kind of contract. Activision appears to believe that they have breached this contract, and may or may not be justified in withholding bonuses."

Check out Pachter and Divnich's full analyses after the break.

[Editor's note: This post has been altered to reflect updates in the Infinity Ward leadership shakeup.]

Continue reading Analysts: No cause for concern over reported unpaid Modern Warfare 2 bonuses

JoystiqAnalysts: No cause for concern over reported unpaid Modern Warfare 2 bonuses originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystbonusescontractseedarfinancialinfinity-wardjesse-divnichmichael-pachterMicrosoftmodern-warfare-2royaltiessaleswedbush-morganXbox-360Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:30:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR: Mass Effect 2 best-selling January release ever]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-mass-effect-2-best-selling-january-release-ever/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-mass-effect-2-best-selling-january-release-ever/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-mass-effect-2-best-selling-january-release-ever/#comments EEDAR vice president and analyst Jesse Divnich has sent out some surprising facts about game sales during the month of January. Well, okay -- it isn't exactly chart shattering that a crapton (that's 572,000) of Mass Effect 2 units were sold last month, but, according to EEDAR's calculations, the game managed to become the best-selling January release of all time in just six days of retail availability. Even with such a small window to achieve the record, Mass Effect 2 completely destroyed the previous record-holder: Poor, poor NFL Street for PS2 (with 325,000 units in sales, for the old record).

Though Mass Effect 2 certainly set a high bar for the quarter, Divnich's report suggests that game sales aren't likely to decline with blockbusters like Final Fantasy XIII and God of War III just around the corner. His firm also promises to closely watch sales of Dante's Inferno -- if the game can can beat its expected sales target of 500,000 units over the next three months, it means that those outlandish PR stunts were effective and we can look forward to more cake arms and $200 checks once Purgatorio is inevitably announced. Awesome.

JoystiqEEDAR: Mass Effect 2 best-selling January release ever originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 12 Feb 2010 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>biowareeaeedarElectronic-Artsjanuaryjesse-divnichmass-effect-2Microsoftq1-2010salessoftwareXbox-360Fri, 12 Feb 2010 13:30:00 EST<![CDATA[We got our wish: New console IP up 106% since 2007]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/20/new-console-ip-up-106-percent-since-2007/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/20/new-console-ip-up-106-percent-since-2007/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/20/new-console-ip-up-106-percent-since-2007/#comments If we've learned anything from the latest "Divnich Debrief" on IndustryGamers, it's to be careful what we wish for. Video game anthropologist analyst Jesse Divnich has crunched the numbers and formed a surprising statistic: 106 percent -- the percentage increase in the number of new console game properties introduced from 2007 to 2009 (61 new IPs in 2007 compared to 126 in 2009). One hundred and twenty-six!

Surprised? We are, considering that we've pined for new game experiences, as we've stocked our shelves with sequels these past few years; all those 2s, 3s and 4s -- heck, we've got a spot reserved for a "13" in March. Still, we'd like to think our collections owe more to exquisite taste than a compulsive habit to collect them all. After all, as Divnich points out, of those 126 new properties introduced last year, not one received an aggregate review score of over 90 percent.

The lesson, as Divnich tells it, is that publishers are barbarians (see, the image does make sense). In other words, when we the consumers stop buying properties worn barren by those plundering publishers, they turn to mass-producing new IP, in search of a hit, which is then quickly ravaged (think: sequel, sequel, sequel -- in short succession) as the cycle repeats itself. The solution, Divnich poses? Simple -- for publishers to consider Blizzard's calm approach (at least it's worked on the PC platform) and farm their prize properties with sustainability in mind. We suppose that makes it our job to suffer excruciatingly long droughts, while keeping the faith. Who wants to join us for the seasonal StarCraft Dance?

JoystiqWe got our wish: New console IP up 106% since 2007 originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 20 Jan 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>businesseedarfinancialjesse-divnichMicrosoftNintendonomadic-barbariansWiiXbox-360Wed, 20 Jan 2010 12:30:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR predicts DS2 will be announced this year]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/#comments In a recent report, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has predicted that Nintendo will announce its next handheld -- let's call it the DS2 -- within the next eight months. Furthermore, Divnich believes that the product will be released within fifteen months. "one of the biggest reasons for Nintendo's success in the handheld market is their ability to remove opportunity gaps for competitors to enter," says Divnich, citing the early release of the DS, which effectively stymied the chances for the PSP a year later. Other reasons to release new hardware include the increasing threat of piracy and the specter of declining support from publishers (Ubisoft, for example, has announced plans to scale back support for Nintendo platforms).

Frankly, the DS hardware is getting a little long in the tooth; as such, it's not too hard to imagine Nintendo ramping up for the release of its inevitable successor. Hell, even Nintendo President Satoru Iwata has been talking about it. Or has he?

JoystiqEEDAR predicts DS2 will be announced this year originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 15 Jan 2010 20:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystDSds2eedarjesse-divnichnintendoFri, 15 Jan 2010 20:15:00 EST<![CDATA[More games released in 2009 than in 2008, barely]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/25/more-games-released-in-2009-than-in-2008-barely/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/25/more-games-released-in-2009-than-in-2008-barely/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/25/more-games-released-in-2009-than-in-2008-barely/#comments Some people have decried the current calendar year for being light on high-quality games -- but they can't frown upon the quantity of titles released in 2009. According to Gamespot, the latest EEDAR GamePulse report reveals that 1,099 games were released to retail outlets throughout the year -- a slight increase over the 1,092 games which hit the market in 2008.

That's not exactly good news -- according to the report, more games (such as Modern Warfare 2) are becoming permanent staples on store shelves, limiting the amount of free space for other new titles. Also, the amount of expendable cash folks have to spend on these games is dwindling. But ... but let's not think about that, okay? It's Christmas. Happy thoughts, you guys.

JoystiqMore games released in 2009 than in 2008, barely originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 25 Dec 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2009eedareedar-gamepulsegamepulsejesse-divnichMicrosoftNintendoretailWiiXbox-360Fri, 25 Dec 2009 11:30:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR: 2010 delays smart decision for game publishers]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/#comments With so many publishers intentionally pushing games out of the holiday season, Q1 2010 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive release windows in the history of gaming. Bayonetta, Army of Two, Dark Void, MAG, BioShock 2, Dante's Inferno, Lost Planet 2, Heavy Rain, Aliens Vs Predator, Final Fantasy XIII, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, God of War III, Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, No More Heroes 2, and Red Steel 2 are just some of the games to come out in the first three months of 2010. Doesn't it seem as though the industry is preparing for yet another cannibalistic quarter, akin to the holiday?

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich doesn't necessarily think so. He argues that "publishers who purposely diverted their AAA holiday titles into 2010 made the proper decision and will likely realize stronger sales with a post-holiday release than a holiday release." And the reasoning? The combination of Mario, Modern Warfare 2 and Assassin's Creed 2 predictably impacted the sales of all other games. "High quality games are selling less units in the 2009 holiday season compared to 2008," Divinich noted by analyzing the sales of games with Metacritic scores of 80 and above.

Still, we can't help but look at the first paragraph with awe. Can our wallets even survive an onslaught of that magnitude? We have an easy solution for publishers: there's an entire "summer" season to consider when releasing games.

JoystiqEEDAR: 2010 delays smart decision for game publishers originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdelayseedarjesse-divnichq1-2010Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Divnich: Wii can't help but win this generation]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/divnich-wii-cant-help-but-win-this-generation/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/divnich-wii-cant-help-but-win-this-generation/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/divnich-wii-cant-help-but-win-this-generation/#commentsThough it's always risky to call a winner before the race is over, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich figures there's basically no chance that the best-selling home console of this generation will be anything but the Nintendo Wii -- even if Nintendo were to suffer an unusually bad few years, and its competitors were to enjoy unusually good years.

Here's Divnich's "worst-case scenario": "For the Wii, let us assume a 25% decline in sales next year," he postulates, "followed by two years of 30% declines, and a 50% decline in 2013. For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

Even with those unlikely numbers, Divnich says, the Wii comes out selling about as much as the PS2 has, and claims victory over the Xbox 360 and PS3. The reality will, of course, be much more complicated than the projection. Divnich notes that Nintendo is likely to release some kind of new hardware, either in the form of a bundle or an upgraded system, that will affect sales; "Additionally, we know that Sony plans to support the PS3 through 2016, which means there are three additional years where Sony could gain a tremendous amount of ground on the Wii and Xbox 360 by being able to offer an affordable Blu-ray player to consumers (very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player)."

Still, it seems that the only chance for a second-place Wii is for the DS to eventually become large enough to count as a home console.

JoystiqDivnich: Wii can't help but win this generation originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarjesse-divnichNintendosalesWiiMon, 07 Dec 2009 19:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Commercial success dependent on 'more than just quality,' Divnich suggests]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/17/commercial-success-dependent-on-more-than-just-quality-divnic/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/17/commercial-success-dependent-on-more-than-just-quality-divnic/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/17/commercial-success-dependent-on-more-than-just-quality-divnic/#comments
Pictured: A successful commercial
Speaking during a presentation at the recent Montreal International Game Summit (as covered by Edge), EEDAR Director of Analyst Services Jesse Divnich highlighted a tenuous connection between game review scores and commercial success. In the case of Nintendo's DS, Divnich is quoted as saying "scores don't matter." But do they matter among a more dedicated gaming audience?

"When we did compare Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 only games, we did, to no surprise, find that review scores highly correlated to sales," Divnich told Joystiq. "However, marketing correlation was still just a tad bit more." According to EEDAR's research, marketing has played the "more crucial role" with DS games and, to some degree, Wii games (a point Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime seems to agree on).

While emphasizing that his aim was not to dismiss the value of critical evaluation, Divnich suggested that marketing plays a more persuasive role in what has become a burgeoning industry. "Video games are now a mass marketed product, it is a product that targets all major demographics, very similar to television or movies or any other sector within the entertainment division." While Joystiq readers may lock out the din of marketing as they tap the F5 key and anxiously wait for review embargoes to lift, the industry has grown to encompass people who aren't as exposed to the likes of Metacritic.

It seems that being informed takes precedence over being entertained -- at least until you start playing the game. "Quality does matter," concluded Divnich, "but marketing matters just a little bit more."

JoystiqCommercial success dependent on 'more than just quality,' Divnich suggests originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>advertisingDSeedarjesse-divnichmarketingNintendoreviewssalesWiiTue, 17 Nov 2009 20:15:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR: Blame low industry sales on casual gamers]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/13/eedar-blame-low-industry-sales-on-casual-gamers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/13/eedar-blame-low-industry-sales-on-casual-gamers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/13/eedar-blame-low-industry-sales-on-casual-gamers/#comments EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich recently told Industry Gamers that the low sales reported by NPD in October can be attributed mainly to casual gamers. Specifically, he placed the blame on "non-traditional and casual gamers who have failed to make follow-up purchases." Conversely, Divnich said that core game sales have been "quite healthy" throughout 2009. So, what can drive casual gamers back to the cash register? "it will take the introduction of some new style of gameplay or peripheral before we see a resurgence in the casual and non-traditional markets," said Divnich, noting that his company expects a new DS to arrive in 2010 (presumably a next generation model, not another redesign). In addition, Divnich believes that Microsoft's Project Natal could reinvigorate interest in motion-controlled gaming among both core and casual gamers.

Divnich also reiterated his belief that the Wii will remain on top for the rest of the year. He also thinks the PS3 could outsell the Xbox 360 over the holidays. He did note, however, that PS3 sales are "declining much faster post-price drop than the Xbx 360," suggesting that it's too early to claim any definite winners in the long run.

JoystiqEEDAR: Blame low industry sales on casual gamers originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysisbusinessDSeedarjesse-divnichMicrosoftNintendonpdWiiXbox-360Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:30:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR predicts Nintendo dominance, weak GTA and Brutal Legend performance in October sales]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/10/eedar-predicts-nintendo-dominance-weak-gta-and-brutal-legend-pe/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/10/eedar-predicts-nintendo-dominance-weak-gta-and-brutal-legend-pe/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/10/eedar-predicts-nintendo-dominance-weak-gta-and-brutal-legend-pe/#commentsEEDAR has released its predictions for October sales charts in North America. Analyst Jesse Divnich expects year-over-year declines for every console except the PS3 -- but also expects the Wii to regain its place at the lead, with an estimated 600,000 units sold. Divnich predicts that the Wii will remain at the top for the rest of the year -- based partly on New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Divnich expects the title to lose initially to Modern Warfare 2 in November, but pick up sales in the holidays and become the best-selling game of the year.

Other games expected to pick up in the holidays include Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City and Brutal Legend. Divnich expects both games to underperform in October (coming in at under 100,000 and 300,000 units, respectively), but to receive significant boosts in the holidays.

Demon's Souls, however, may exceed expectations. Divnich estimates that Atlus's punishing RPG sold 100,000 copies in October.

JoystiqEEDAR predicts Nintendo dominance, weak GTA and Brutal Legend performance in October sales originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>brutal-legenddemons-soulseedarepisodes-from-liberty-cityjesse-divnichMicrosoftnew-super-mario-bros-wiiNintendoWiiXbox-360Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: 'Sony was saved by the success of the Wii']]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/05/analyst-sony-was-saved-by-the-success-of-the-wii/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/05/analyst-sony-was-saved-by-the-success-of-the-wii/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/05/analyst-sony-was-saved-by-the-success-of-the-wii/#comments If you haven't heard, the PlayStation Wii is so successful, it pretty much prints money. Wait, Sony didn't make the Wii? Then how did the market analysts of DFC Intelligence come to the conclusion that "Sony was saved by the success of the Wii?"

According to DFC, the Wii's mainstream appeal forced Microsoft into a successful, but not entirely dominant position. "The main danger Sony faced was that the Xbox 360 would become embedded as the system of choice. Instead consumers flocked to the Nintendo Wii. The Xbox 360 had solid sales, but they have not been enough to give Microsoft anywhere near a breakout market position," the report explains.

Should enthusiasm for the Wii wane this holiday season, the recent price drop, coupled with with impending release of God of War III, finally positions the PS3 as a viable choice for mainstream consumers, the report notes. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich agrees, pointing out that Sony can finally utilize its leverage from the previous generation. "People who purchase a PS2 are more likely to purchase a PS3 in the future. Consumers, believe it or not, are pretty loyal."

Three years after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray is also finally becoming a marketable feature for mainstream consumers, the report argues. "This holiday season Blu-ray movies are finally getting a major focus at retail ... Blu-ray clearly now becomes a strong selling point for the PlayStation 3." Undoubtedly, SCEA will create an ad that focuses on this aspect of the system that "only does everything."

While DFC's report comes off as incredibly bullish, it's understandable to see why there's some doubt over Sony's ability to capitalize on the moment. Let's not forget, this is a company that managed to fall from first to last place in the course of a year. "The cards are in Sony's favor and now is the time to make the most of them ... Now is the time for Sony to shine ... or else."

[Via CVG]

Source - Is it Time for the PlayStation 3 to Shine?
Source - How the venerable PlayStation 2 made it to 9 years old

JoystiqAnalyst: 'Sony was saved by the success of the Wii' originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdfc-intelligenceeedarjesse-divnichplaystationplaystation-3ps3sonywiiThu, 05 Nov 2009 00:44:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR: Game sales slowdown turned around in September]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/#comments
2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.

The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.

JoystiqEEDAR: Game sales slowdown turned around in September originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 09 Oct 2009 02:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystbatman-arkham-asylumeedarguitar-hero-5halo-3-odstjesse-divnichmadden-10music-gamespredictionssalesthe-beatles-rock-bandwii-sports-resortFri, 09 Oct 2009 02:00:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR expects PS3 to be top selling console in Sept.]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/08/eedar-predicts-ps3-is-top-selling-console-in-september-for-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/08/eedar-predicts-ps3-is-top-selling-console-in-september-for-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/08/eedar-predicts-ps3-is-top-selling-console-in-september-for-fi/#comments
Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).

It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.

JoystiqEEDAR expects PS3 to be top selling console in Sept. originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarhardwarejesse-divnichpredictionsalesThu, 08 Oct 2009 11:29:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR: PS3's $299 price to become 'new standard' for next year]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/08/18/eedar-predicts-299-will-become-ps3-360-new-standard-for-next/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/08/18/eedar-predicts-299-will-become-ps3-360-new-standard-for-next/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/08/18/eedar-predicts-299-will-become-ps3-360-new-standard-for-next/#comments Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model.

Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software?

Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning?

[Image Source]

JoystiqEEDAR: PS3's $299 price to become 'new standard' for next year originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarjesse-divnichMicrosoftpredictionprice-cutXbox-360Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Take-Two not expecting profitability for fiscal '09]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/13/take-two-not-expecting-profitability-for-fiscal-09/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/13/take-two-not-expecting-profitability-for-fiscal-09/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/13/take-two-not-expecting-profitability-for-fiscal-09/#comments
Take-Two held a conference call, following the disappointing news of BioShock 2's delay, to update investors on its current financial situation. With BioShock's absence, Take-Two's holiday sales will rely on Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto: The Ballad of Gay Tony and the PSP version of Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars. While all are arguably high-profile titles, none are expected to generate the kind of revenue as a brand new BioShock title -- and that's going to hurt Take-Two's bottom line.

Like many other publishers suffering from the economic depression, Take-Two has confirmed the company will not be able to achieve profitability for the fiscal 09 year. While specific figures were not released during the call, the company once again reiterated that its outlook for fiscal '10 is far more positive, expecting profit "without a new multiplatform Grand Theft Auto release."

Touting a lineup that includes Max Payne 3, BioShock 2 and a number of "unannounced titles" for release in late 2010, analyst Jesse Divnich of EEDAR agrees. "The news of BioShock 2 being delayed into fiscal 2010 has drastically changed my view on the Take-Two. I originally anticipated that Take-Two would outperform the industry in fiscal 2010. Now, I expect them to dominate fiscal 2010."

JoystiqTake-Two not expecting profitability for fiscal '09 originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eedarfinancejesse-divnichtake-twoMon, 13 Jul 2009 17:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Divnich: High profile DLC can hurt lesser retail titles]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/07/divnich-high-profile-dlc-can-hurt-lesser-retail-titles/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/07/divnich-high-profile-dlc-can-hurt-lesser-retail-titles/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/07/divnich-high-profile-dlc-can-hurt-lesser-retail-titles/#comments
In a column on IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich lays down his case for premium downloadable content and its effect on the retail scene. According to Divnich, whenever a high profile game receives premium DLC, it can actually hurt the sales of lower profile games in the same genre.

He notes that a blockbuster game normally has a blackout period of a few weeks, meaning that when a new game comes out -- he uses Halo 4 as an example -- there's a period before and after its release when gamers are less likely to buy a similar game. Whenever that same game gets DLC, players are once again less liable to purchase a similar game for a certain period before and after the release of the DLC. After all, why would you pick up Call of Duty: The Next One, if you're still playing that fancy new Halo DLC?

The long and short of it, says Divnich, is that DLC has nothing but a negative impact on retail. It's actually a double impact, as DLC both prevents gamers from buying a new game and from selling their current games back to used game retailers like GameStop. According to Divnich, digital sales are going to seriously impact retail sooner than believed.

JoystiqDivnich: High profile DLC can hurt lesser retail titles originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 07 Jul 2009 00:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysisbusinessdlcjesse-divnichTue, 07 Jul 2009 00:30:00 EST<![CDATA[EEDAR analyst apologizes for his report supporting the Q4 wallet drain]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/05/28/eedar-analyst-apologizes-for-his-report-supporting-the-q4-wallet/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/05/28/eedar-analyst-apologizes-for-his-report-supporting-the-q4-wallet/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/05/28/eedar-analyst-apologizes-for-his-report-supporting-the-q4-wallet/#comments
The latest report from research company EEDAR reveals that, despite complaints from gamers that publishers are overloading the fourth quarter every year, well-reviewed titles typically perform 15-20 percent better than games with high Metacritic released in the "off season." Don't worry, though, we expressed our discontent by calling EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich and yelling, "What are you doing!? You're ruining everything!" Divnich apologized and said he uses GameFly to mitigate his own personal financial damage during the holidays. He wishes the numbers would show something different and recognizes a core gamer would need to increase their gaming budget by 200% during the holidays to keep up.

Divnich also wanted us to note that, despite it being widely reported that his research states the PS3's library has the highest percentage of titles with an 85 or higher Metacritic score, the Xbox 360 has a larger quantity of such titles overall. Whatever, we've found a scapegoat for our empty wallets during the holidays. Divnich is the first phone call we're making to hit up for cash.

JoystiqEEDAR analyst apologizes for his report supporting the Q4 wallet drain originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 28 May 2009 21:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>businessdivnicheedarholidayjesse-divnichq4salesThu, 28 May 2009 21:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts predict over ten million sales for MotionPlus]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/05/13/analysts-predict-over-ten-million-sales-for-motionplus/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/05/13/analysts-predict-over-ten-million-sales-for-motionplus/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/05/13/analysts-predict-over-ten-million-sales-for-motionplus/#commentsBoth Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter and EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich expect the Wii MotionPlus peripheral to achieve sales of around ten million units in the US and Europe. The two just disagree on how long it will take.

Pachter believes that the sales will happen early on, driven by bundles of early MotionPlus compatible software: "I think around 20 percent of Wii owners in the US and Europe will have bought Wii Sports Resort, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 or EA Sports Grand Slam Tennis," Pachter told Edge, "so that's around eight million." He added, "I think another two million will buy MotionPlus with new consoles."

Divnich thinks three million units will sell through this holiday season, but it will take an additional year to achieve the ten-million-plus level of sales. "For the Wii MotionPlus, we currently expect the install base to reach over 11 million units by the end of Nintendo's next fiscal year in March 2011, a 15 percent penetration."

Both analysts think Red Steel 2 is a risk that could pay off for Ubisoft. "Red Steel 2 may come along at precisely the right time, around when people are ready for another [MotionPlus] game," Pachter said. "The risk is really more a function of competition, compounded by the risk that Ubisoft could make a bad game." Both analysts believe that Red Steel 2 will be bundled with a MotionPlus.

JoystiqAnalysts predict over ten million sales for MotionPlus originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 13 May 2009 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>ea-sports-grand-slam-tennisjesse-divnichmichael-pachtermotionplusNintendopachterred-steel-2tiger-woods-10WiiWed, 13 May 2009 09:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Sony expects 10-15% sales rise for PSP/PS3 this year]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/02/sony-expects-10-15-sales-rise-for-psp-ps3-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/02/sony-expects-10-15-sales-rise-for-psp-ps3-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/02/sony-expects-10-15-sales-rise-for-psp-ps3-this-year/#comments
At least that's what John Koller, head of marketing for Sony Computer Entertainment of America, told VG247 earlier this week. "We had our largest sales year ever last year, and we'd look to go about 10-15 percent north of that this year," Koller said of the PSP, citing the upcoming software packs and software lineup as reason for his confidence. Continuing, Koller noted, "We also had our best sales year for PS3 last year and we'll look to go north of that by a similar percentage," again citing upcoming software bundles and lineup as driving the increased numbers.

So we put the numbers for Sony's PS3 in 2008 against those of the previous year and found it sold just like Koller said (as seen in the graph above), with PS3 sales increasing by 40 percent. In fact, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, director of analyst services at EEDAR, who said Koller's numbers are modest, with EEDAR company predicting a 25 percent increase in PlayStation 3 sales this year and a 16 percent increase for PSP sales. Even averaged together, that's still an over 20 percent increase predicted for this year. So, maybe 2008 was the year of the PS3 after all?

JoystiqSony expects 10-15% sales rise for PSP/PS3 this year originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>businesseedarjesse-divnichjohn-kollermarketingnpdsceasonySony-Computer-Entertainment-Americavg247Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:20:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts: PS2 sales to increase 30% after price drop, others question effect on software]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/31/analysts-ps2-sales-to-increase-30-after-price-drop-others-que/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/31/analysts-ps2-sales-to-increase-30-after-price-drop-others-que/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/31/analysts-ps2-sales-to-increase-30-after-price-drop-others-que/#comments
Analyst Jesse Divnich of EEDAR believes that the PS2 price drop to a Franklin will boost US sales of the console by 30 percent. Divnich's report also estimates that PS2 software will maintain an 18 percent market share, rather than drop down to 16 percent had there not been a cut.

Gamasutra also spoke with analyst Matt Matthews, who points out that any consumer waiting for the PS2 to reach $100 is "cost-conscious" enough to buy games from the used bin at GameStop, meaning those consumers aren't likely to help new software sales. Apparently, Sony's Jack Tretton agreed with this notion last summer in an Edge interview, when he asked, "If that $30 was the difference between buying a console and not buying a console, how many games are you going to sell to that person?"

At the time, he questioned how strategically important that consumer really is. Apparently, nine months and a fiscal crisis at the company is enough to change some minds.

JoystiqAnalysts: PS2 sales to increase 30% after price drop, others question effect on software originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 31 Mar 2009 18:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eedarjesse-divnichprice-cutprice-dropps2sonyTue, 31 Mar 2009 18:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: PS3 price cut won't help Sony in short term]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/17/analyst-ps3-price-cut-wont-help-sony-in-short-term/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/17/analyst-ps3-price-cut-wont-help-sony-in-short-term/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/17/analyst-ps3-price-cut-wont-help-sony-in-short-term/#comments Despite the rallying of software publishers, EEDAR Analyst Jesse Divnich thinks a PS3 price cut won't be that beneficial to Sony in the short term. In his retail sales preview for February 2009, Divnich calls the hypothetical, analyst-expected June price drop "unlikely to propel sales ahead of last [fiscal] year for the first half of 2009."

Even though he says the PS3 has "an impressive holiday 09 line-up," he claims Microsoft's successful campaign to position itself as the "core console of choice" won't give Sony much wiggle room. Currently, the PS3 is in last place for this gen, but Divnich has high hopes for PS3 in the long term. He expects Sony's system to pick up steam by "2011 through 2017," when Blu-ray becomes dirt cheap. It's not a very optimistic outlook.

JoystiqAnalyst: PS3 price cut won't help Sony in short term originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 17 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystbusinesseedarhardwarejesse-divnichprice-cutps3Tue, 17 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Lost and Damned earned $18 million online, $3 million at retail]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/16/analyst-lost-and-damned-earned-18-million-online-3-million-a/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/16/analyst-lost-and-damned-earned-18-million-online-3-million-a/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/03/16/analyst-lost-and-damned-earned-18-million-online-3-million-a/#comments
Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) analyst Jesse Divnich's crystal ball predicts brick-and-mortar retail sales of GTA IV's expansion, The Lost and Damned, to be less than $3 million. He believes current global sales from customers who purchased it across Xbox Live to be around $18 million. This latest bit of analyst prognostication comes following Pachter's missive (translated from an Illuminati memo) that GTA's biker expansion could sell upwards of two million units by year's end.

Although the 6-to-1 online vs. retail ratio seems dramatic, is it really surprising when The Lost and Damned was promoted as a DLC pack anyway? In this case, retail was just a middle man, as those who purchased the "game" at their local bodega received a card with a code to download the expansion. All we really know at this point is that the game is selling very well.

Gallery: Grand Theft Auto IV: The Lost and Damned DLC

JoystiqAnalyst: Lost and Damned earned $18 million online, $3 million at retail originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>divnicheedargtagta-ivgta-iv-the-lost-and-damnedjesse-divnichlost-and-damnedMicrosoftthe-lost-and-damnedXbox-360Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:47:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: median Wii game price dropped to $40 in 2008]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/02/04/analyst-median-wii-game-price-dropped-to-40-in-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/02/04/analyst-median-wii-game-price-dropped-to-40-in-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/02/04/analyst-median-wii-game-price-dropped-to-40-in-2008/#commentsFiled under:

In case you hadn't noticed (we're imagining Rich Uncle Pennybags types who just keep handing cashiers wads of cash until they look satisfied), game prices have been moving upward in this console generation. $59.99 is the new base price for console games, and limited editions drive the prices up further -- except on the Wii.

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich made statements in the group's February "Expose" document that support the conclusions of Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald -- that the "average MSRP could flatten or fall in 2009." According to his estimates, the median MSRP for Wii games at release has already fallen: from $49.99 in 2007 to $39.99 in 2008.

The proliferation of budget shovelware certainly has a lot to do with this trend, but cheap shovelware is a lot less obnoxious than expensive shovelware. Plus, the widespread lowering of initial prices should lead to a similar trend among non-shovelware publishers, as well.

[Via GoNintendo]

JoystiqAnalyst: median Wii game price dropped to $40 in 2008 originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 04 Feb 2009 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarjesse-divnichNintendopricingWiiWed, 04 Feb 2009 09:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Hardware shortages blamed for Wii's underwhelming December]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2009/01/18/hardware-shortages-blamed-for-wiis-underwhelming-december/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/01/18/hardware-shortages-blamed-for-wiis-underwhelming-december/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/01/18/hardware-shortages-blamed-for-wiis-underwhelming-december/#commentsFiled under:

Let's make this clear: Wii sold a helluva lot of units in North America during December. 2.15 million consoles in a single month is a number Sony and Microsoft can only dream about right now, but there's no doubt that the figures weren't as grand as expected. He who is Pachter predicted the console would clear the 3 million mark, only for the platform to fall short by 850,000 units.

Why the lower-than-expected sales? As usual, analysts reckon they have the answer: more of those accursed hardware shortages. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich and Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel both believe demand outweighed supply for the third December running, with Divnich stating the Wii would have sold "north of 4 million units" if more consoles had been produced in time.

Phew, panic over! Wii's not the next N-Gage or anything!

[Via Joystiq]

JoystiqHardware shortages blamed for Wii's underwhelming December originally appeared on Joystiq on Sun, 18 Jan 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystbusinessholidaze-2008jeetil-pateljesse-divnichnpdshortagesSun, 18 Jan 2009 13:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts say 360 price cut should have Sony worried]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2008/09/05/analysts-say-360-price-cut-should-have-sony-worried/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/09/05/analysts-say-360-price-cut-should-have-sony-worried/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/09/05/analysts-say-360-price-cut-should-have-sony-worried/#commentsFiled under:


If you haven't heard, the Xbox 360 has received yet another price cut. Effective today, the Xbox 360 Arcade model is available for only $199 -- that's $200 less than the cheapest PS3 model. While the PS3 is arguably a better deal, with the inclusion of a Blu-ray drive, integrated wireless and free online play, penny-pinching casual gamers may not see the value proposition of a system that costs twice as much as its competition. "Given the weaker consumer spending environment, the Xbox 360 should also now be in closer reach of more price-sensitive consumers," analyst Colin Sebastian said.

However, with Sony focused on profitability this year, a competitive price drop does not appear to be on the radar for the PS3. Instead, Sony has opted to create larger hard drives and more attractive bundle options, such as the 160GB Uncharted bundle. "I suspect that the reason why Sony has been so adamant about maintaining its current price point is because it has not reached a more efficient scale in its manufacturing of the PS3," said analyst Jesse Divnich.

Divinich also tells Edge that "Sony should be the most concerned [about the 360's price cut] ... Going into this holiday season, the PS3 will not only have the highest price point, but also the smallest software library, weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360's Gears of War 2 and Fable 2), and a less popular online network." Apparantly, he forgot about Resistance 2, SOCOM, LittleBigPlanet and a number of other PS3-exclusive titles for this holiday season. However, will the lure of these titles make up for the increasing price gap between these two rival consoles?

JoystiqAnalysts say 360 price cut should have Sony worried originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystcolin-sebastianjesse-divnichprice-cutps3xbox-360Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Growing Wii supply to guarantee less stressful holiday season]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2008/08/19/growing-wii-supply-to-guarantee-less-stressful-holiday-season/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/08/19/growing-wii-supply-to-guarantee-less-stressful-holiday-season/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/08/19/growing-wii-supply-to-guarantee-less-stressful-holiday-season/#commentsFiled under:

Even as holiday seasons go, the previous two were pretty damn horrible if you were a parent trying to find a Wii for your offspring. You could spot a harried, stressed parent almost everywhere you turned on the high street, their wide, panicked eyes and expressions of fear and uncertainty giving them away in game emporiums up and down the land.

But it doesn't have to be the same this year! This year, lil' Timmy will be opening a fresh new Wii come Christmas Day -- as long as you buy early enough. And if not, at least now we have somebody to blame: EEDAR's director of analytical services Jesse Divnich. Writing on Gamasutra, Divnich suggests that falling prices on the Wii's gray market mean that supply and demand are now close to being equal. "Given the trend," reasons the analyst, "it is likely that supply will finally outpace demand before the holiday season."

Don't just rest on your laurels, however, for Divnich thinks that demand may outpace supply again during November and December. The best solution? Buy one now and hide it until the time for gift-giving has arrived.

Hide it well, though -- or at least, hide it better than this blogger's parents hid Virtua Racing during the Christmas 1994 season. I must have had a solid four weeks with that game before I was required to act surprised on Christmas Day morning.

JoystiqGrowing Wii supply to guarantee less stressful holiday season originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 19 Aug 2008 19:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystbusinesschristmasdivnichholidaysjesse-divnichTue, 19 Aug 2008 19:26:00 EST<![CDATA[Rumors: Xbox 360 at E3 - new 60GB model, pricecut, both?]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/16/rumors-xbox-360-at-e3-new-60gb-model-pricecut-both/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/16/rumors-xbox-360-at-e3-new-60gb-model-pricecut-both/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/16/rumors-xbox-360-at-e3-new-60gb-model-pricecut-both/#commentsFiled under:


What a way to kick of a Monday. After last night's torrent of marketing leaks, we woke up to these two fresh rumors concerning the Xbox 360 and Microsoft's E3 showing next month. At the current rate, we're statistically likely to discover every single surprise Microsoft had in store for E3 (and maybe a couple E3s down the road) but let's start here.

TrustedReviews is following up on their earlier rumor of a new 60GB Xbox 360 model claiming that, after some evident equivocation, Microsoft is finally ready to announce it at E3 and release it as early as this August (pre-10th says their source). No information on how the larger hard drive would affect other SKUs - would the Arcade get a hard drive or would the Elite get bumped up? - but that's the way these things are.

Second rumor regards a possible pricedrop to be delivered at E3 this year. Following last week's NPD data showing a slight dip in monthly 360 sales, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich said, "With E3 around the corner, we can expect Microsoft to make some type of announcement regarding a hardware price cut, the introductory of a new hardware SKU with new features, or both." Both sounds best here. How about a new, cheaper 60GB model?

[Via Engadget]

Source - 60GB Xbox 360 To Launch At E3
Source - Microsoft to cut US Xbox 360 price at E3, says analyst

JoystiqRumors: Xbox 360 at E3 - new 60GB model, pricecut, both? originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>60GB-Xbox-360Jesse-DivnichpricecutRumorXbox-360Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:44:00 EST<![CDATA[PSP experiences 17% decrease in sales, software in last place]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/12/psp-experiences-17-decrease-in-sales-software-in-last-place/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/12/psp-experiences-17-decrease-in-sales-software-in-last-place/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/12/psp-experiences-17-decrease-in-sales-software-in-last-place/#commentsFiled under:

Things are not looking for Sony's handheld. After what appeared to be a successful resurrection with the redesigned PSP-2000, things have slowed down significantly for the system. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich noted that sales of PSP have dropped quite a bit from its previous highs. In fact, it sold 17% less systems in May 2008 as it did in May 2007. Momentum is significantly dropping.

The outlook for PSP is going to be much worse before it gets any better. According to Divnich, "this trend will likely continue, as we do not see any significant PSP titles in the short-term pipeline that could drive hardware sales in Sony's favor." The PSP software drought certainly isn't going to help.

For one reason or another, PSP software sales are also significantly lower than on any other platform. Divnich noted. "Furthermore, PSP software has consistently been last in software unit sales among the next-generation consoles and handhelds. Additionally, the PSP was the only console not to have a title in the top 10 of unit sales, even the PS2 managed to creep into the top ten with sales from Iron Man." So long as PSP software continues to flop, publishers and developers will have no need to create new content for the system.

JoystiqPSP experiences 17% decrease in sales, software in last place originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 12 Jun 2008 22:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarjesse-divnichpspsalesThu, 12 Jun 2008 22:59:00 EST