Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com Joystiq http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.joystiq.com/media/feedlogo.gif Joystiq http://www.joystiq.com en-us Copyright 2013 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Pachter: American Wii Fit shortages due to weak dollar]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/01/pachter-american-wii-fit-shortages-due-to-weak-dollar/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/01/pachter-american-wii-fit-shortages-due-to-weak-dollar/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/01/pachter-american-wii-fit-shortages-due-to-weak-dollar/#commentsFiled under: ,


Americans have been buffeted with news of our nation's pending recession and the devaluation of our dollar for months now, but in a market with such standardized prices, the American video game industry and game consumers haven't really felt the effect of our economic instability. However, according to industry analyst and prognosticator extraordinaire Michael Pachter, our pecuniary puniness is the cause for the current American Wii Fit shortage -- nearly four times as many copies of the title made their way to Europe, where the Euro, unlike the dollar, is gaining strength.

In Pachter's own words, "We're seeing companies ignore their largest market simply because they can make a greater profit elsewhere." You don't need to be a revered industry analyst to notice that -- the title, which sells for $90 in the U.S., is speedily selling for the equivalent of $140 in Europe. Pachter also remarks that Americans can afford to wait for future shipments of the title, as Nintendo knows "that Americans will be just as fat a few months from now." Words hurt, Pachter. Words hurt.

JoystiqPachter: American Wii Fit shortages due to weak dollar originally appeared on Joystiq on Sun, 01 Jun 2008 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>dollareconomyeuromichaelpachtermoneynintendopachterweak-dollarweakdollarWiiwii-fitSun, 01 Jun 2008 14:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter expects 2008 to be 'significantly better' for Midway]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2008/05/06/pachter-expects-2008-to-be-significantly-better-for-midway/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/05/06/pachter-expects-2008-to-be-significantly-better-for-midway/http://www.joystiq.com/2008/05/06/pachter-expects-2008-to-be-significantly-better-for-midway/#commentsFiled under:


In the wake of yesterday's Q1 earnings announcement from Midway, financial prognosticator Michael Pachter has come forth with his predictions for the company, stating that despite suffering considerable losses during the quarter, the analyst expects the company to perform "significantly better" over the course of year compared to 2007.

According to Pachter, his firm, Wedbush Morgan, continues to advise investors to hold onto any shares of Midway stock that they may have collecting dust in their portfolios, adding belief that Midway "can generate sustainable profits if it can deliver revenues above the $300 million annual level." While possible, Pachter himself lowered his 2008 revenue estimates for the company to $265 million from $300 million based on what he called Midway's "weak first half results," as well as lowered his expectations for 2009. The analyst noted belief that Midway hit rock bottom "quite a while ago," and thus it seems like there is nowhere to go but up. We're just not sure that you can get to the top by clinging to Batman's cape.

[Via press release]

JoystiqPachter expects 2008 to be 'significantly better' for Midway originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 06 May 2008 10:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>michaelpachtermidwaypachterwedbush-morganwedbushmorganTue, 06 May 2008 10:25:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter says Xbox 360 will beat Wii in September]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/15/pachter-says-xbox-360-will-beat-wii-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/15/pachter-says-xbox-360-will-beat-wii-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/15/pachter-says-xbox-360-will-beat-wii-in-september/#commentsFiled under: , ,

When the Wii started its march to dominance and began trouncing the 360, it was kind of sweet. It was like a come-from-behind underdog story where the camp for fat kids managed to beat the camp for rich athletic kids in the big softball game simply by working hard and believing in themselves. But now, it's almost become a little sad. The rich kids all lost their scholarships and waistlines and started working at Citgo, while the fat kids grew progressively fatter thanks to crap like Carnival Games and teasing the masses with incredible-looking titles that they will, sadly, not play in their lifetimes.

But according to Michael Pachter, the formerly rich and athletic kids may have won a round last month against their portly nemeses. The video game analyst believes that the 360 will have beaten the Wii 450,000 to 425,000 when sales numbers for September have been added up. It's sure to be a nice boost for the dethroned pretty boys, but since last month also marked the release of Halo 3, they perhaps shouldn't get too comfortable at the top.

JoystiqPachter says Xbox 360 will beat Wii in September originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 15 Oct 2007 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>michaelpachterwiiXbox-360xbox360Mon, 15 Oct 2007 12:20:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst predicts $399 PS3 in 2008]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/07/analyst-predicts-399-ps3-in-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/07/analyst-predicts-399-ps3-in-2008/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/07/analyst-predicts-399-ps3-in-2008/#commentsFiled under: ,

It's time once again to look into the future. That's right, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities, all the way to the year 2008! And what does he see? He says that we should "expect a price cut no later than April, likely to $399 for the 80Gb model" of the PS3.

This would be a $100 price drop on top of the already slashed $499 price he predicted for the holiday season. Pachter believes that Sony's recent IPO announcement, will enable Sony to drop prices even further for early next year. And hopefully, just in time for Metal Gear Solid 4.

[via Joystiq]

JoystiqAnalyst predicts $399 PS3 in 2008 originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 07 Sep 2007 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>michaelpachterpricecutFri, 07 Sep 2007 18:30:00 EST<![CDATA[How are analysts handling Karraker's departure?]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/07/how-are-analysts-handling-karrakers-departure/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/07/how-are-analysts-handling-karrakers-departure/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/07/how-are-analysts-handling-karrakers-departure/#commentsFiled under: ,

They're worried, honestly. Though some may say PR people are a dime a dozen in any industry, Karraker had a lot of history at Sony and his recent departure from the team is going to make it a difficult holiday for Sony, says analyst Michael Pachter. Karraker always made himself available for questions and comments, putting himself forward especially after the shaky PS3 launch and subsequent waves of negative press. Can someone fresh really fill the shoes of that man?

Michael Pachter isn't completely sure. "The other PR people at Sony are quite competent, but it would help to strengthen the team with someone as good as Dave to handle the schizophrenic press over the next 6 months." Just because we always refer to ourselves as "we" doesn't make us schizophrenic! Although we don't consider ourselves press, either. As to further boost Sony's fears, Pachter also claimed that the few PS3 exclusives and pricing disadvantage relative to other consoles will make this one difficult holiday for Sony. Things will shape up in Spring, he said, "with the release of Grand Theft Auto 4, Gran Turismo 5, and Metal Gear Solid 4." We bet so, too!

JoystiqHow are analysts handling Karraker's departure? originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 07 Sep 2007 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>davekarrakermichaelpachtersonyFri, 07 Sep 2007 09:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts expect $499 price for 80GB PS3 over holidays]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/04/analysts-expect-499-price-for-80gb-ps3-over-holidays/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/04/analysts-expect-499-price-for-80gb-ps3-over-holidays/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/09/04/analysts-expect-499-price-for-80gb-ps3-over-holidays/#commentsFiled under:

We can't say we didn't expect it, let alone haven't heard it before and probably had some report on it a while back. Once again, those number-crunching-guessing analysts are setting up consumers for one of two things: an expected result or disappointment. There are no pleasant surprises anymore, huh? Anyway, Wedbush Morgan's own Michael Pachter and simExchange's Jesse Divnich came out of the forest to proclaim the 60GB model PS3 will vanish by the holidays and the 80GB model will fully replace it -- price and all. Yep, they sense Sony will lower the 80GB model to $499 and keep it there.

Other sales boosts, the two say, could come in the form of more software bundles and Jesse Divnich is "confident that through the coming months, Sony will make the correct decisions to prevent the gap between the PS3 and the Xbox 360 to widen." Pachter chimes in also with the idea that in early 2008, Sony may be prepared to cut the price of their console again. We don't think we'll see another $100 price drop, but if one does happen, we bet it'd be about $50. That's our analysis, what's yours?

JoystiqAnalysts expect $499 price for 80GB PS3 over holidays originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 04 Sep 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>michaelpachterpricecutTue, 04 Sep 2007 14:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter says PS3 outsold Xbox 360 in July]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/18/pachter-says-ps3-outsold-xbox-360-in-july/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/18/pachter-says-ps3-outsold-xbox-360-in-july/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/18/pachter-says-ps3-outsold-xbox-360-in-july/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,


As a master of the occult, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has access to an astonishing amount of prescient items. He typically rotates them, most recently speaking to the mirror which he got at an estate sale from a Queen who apparently took a nasty fall. Pachter went up to the mirror and asked, "Mirror, mirror, on the wall. In July, who's the console winner of them all?"

The Mirror replied, "Why the Nintendo Wii and DS, of course."

Miffed at the information given by his impulse purchase, Pachter replies, "You better tell me something I don't already know or I'm shipping you by freight to Pidgeon!"

In a moment of sheer panic the Mirror blurts out, "NPD will report the PS3 beat the Xbox 360 in sales for July."

Pachter believes that for the month of July, which will be official from NPD on Aug. 23, that the DS (450,000 units) and Wii (330,000) dominated sales in North America. Although, for the first time ever, the PS3 will show sales of 160,000 units, while the Xbox 360 will have 115,000. This would also mean that the PS3 will have doubled sales since announcing their 60GB clearance sale last month. He goes on to say that the Xbox warranty issue was a speed bump for Microsoft as "as consumers struggled with the meaning of the 'three red rings of death' issue." He believes that the price cut and apparent fix of the design flaw will rebound Xbox 360 sales.

JoystiqPachter says PS3 outsold Xbox 360 in July originally appeared on Joystiq on Sat, 18 Aug 2007 14:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>dsjulymichaelpachternpdpachterps3saleswiiXbox-360xbox360Sat, 18 Aug 2007 14:12:00 EST<![CDATA[Second PS3 price drop in time for GTA IV - Pachter]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/07/second-ps3-price-drop-in-time-for-gta-iv-pachter/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/07/second-ps3-price-drop-in-time-for-gta-iv-pachter/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/07/second-ps3-price-drop-in-time-for-gta-iv-pachter/#commentsFiled under:

Everybody's favorite analyst, Michael Pachter, has weighed in once again on his favorite topic -- PlayStation 3 price drops. According to Pachter, it is unlikely that Sony will drop the price of the PS3 again this year even though higher-than-previous console costs will constrain new console growth by approximately 10% compared to last cycle. He does feel that Sony will look at dropping the price early next year though, just in time to spur sales of the console for major hitters like Metal Gear Solid 4 and GTA IV.

The PlayStation 3 wasn't the only console that got love though, Pachter also said that he thinks it's likely that Sony will drop the price of the PlayStation 2 before this holiday season in order to further propel sells of the Energizer of videogame consoles. The PS3's diminutive daddy continues to sell at a fantastic rate and a price cut down to $99 would help maintain or even increase the sales rate of the 'last-gen' console. Continued strong sales of the PlayStation 2 would also help prop up Sony's game devision while the PS3 continues it's slow ramp-up towards profitability.

JoystiqSecond PS3 price drop in time for GTA IV - Pachter originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 07 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>MichaelPachterpricecutTue, 07 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST<![CDATA[All about industry analysts on Bonus Round]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/06/all-about-industry-analysts-on-bonus-round-someone-edit-and-pub/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/06/all-about-industry-analysts-on-bonus-round-someone-edit-and-pub/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/06/all-about-industry-analysts-on-bonus-round-someone-edit-and-pub/#commentsFiled under: ,

Everyone's favorite Wedbush-Morgan analyst, Michael Pachter, joins IDC's Billy Pidgeon for this weeks episode of Bonus Round, focusing on video game analysts. Throughout their interview with Geoff Keighley, one thing is made abundantly clear: they're not doing their job for us, the players, but for the serious investors out there.

That said, the question that seems to pop up every time their comments filter their way through the media is, "Why should we listen to them in the first place?"

Michael Pachter says, "Nobody should listen to me on my opinion about anything." That would be a legendary quote right there, but Pachter continues, "... Except whether one of the companies I cover is going to meet or miss an earnings estimate and how they're going to perform going forward." Curses. You win this round, Pachter! Insightful as well as educational, it's another episode of Bonus Round worth checking out.

JoystiqAll about industry analysts on Bonus Round originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 06 Aug 2007 10:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystsbillypidgeonbonusroundgeoffkeighleymichaelpachterMon, 06 Aug 2007 10:55:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter expects $499 price to remain, even when 60GB PS3s do not]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/16/pachter-expects-499-price-to-remain-even-when-60gb-ps3s-do-not/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/16/pachter-expects-499-price-to-remain-even-when-60gb-ps3s-do-not/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/16/pachter-expects-499-price-to-remain-even-when-60gb-ps3s-do-not/#commentsWill they? Won't they? This is worse than Ross and Rachel. Ah, the 90s. Simpler times. Since Thursday, we've been questioning whether the 80GB PS3 will drop to $499 once the 60GB version sells out. We're fairly comfortable with our prediction that it will and Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan, agrees.

Pachter states that "the Sony entry level price of $499 is here to stay" and that "there are presently 2 - 3 million 60Gb PS3s produced and not yet sold." This number constitutes up 75% of PS3s in the hands of consumers right now, so the idea of that many selling out before the end of the month, as Reeves suggested, is ridiculous. Pachter's reasoning for why he expects the 80GB model to drop in price is similar to most people's. The 80GB PS3 should cost Sony as much, if not less, to produce than the 60GB model thanks to removal of the Emotion Engine (which, at this point, is the PS3's equivalent of the appendix). Not to mention that Motorstorm is included in the 80GB box, so removing the game will allow the bundle to drop in price by at least $50.

Pachter ends his report by saying that he expects "the $499 price point to be maintained until early next year, when the 80Gb model will likely be cut again to $399." We're not so sure about this ourselves, but we'd definitely like to see it happen.

JoystiqPachter expects $499 price to remain, even when 60GB PS3s do not originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 16 Jul 2007 15:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>60gb80gbmichael pachterMichaelPachterpachterprice dropPriceDropMon, 16 Jul 2007 15:01:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter pauses to percolate E3 thoughts, says $499 PS3 is here to stay]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/16/pachter-pauses-to-percolate-e3-thoughts/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/16/pachter-pauses-to-percolate-e3-thoughts/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/16/pachter-pauses-to-percolate-e3-thoughts/#commentsFiled under: , ,


Wedbush-Morgan's Michael Pachter has been around the industry long enough to know that the first thing you do as an analyst the Monday after E3 is a brain dump. Bright and early this morning we received his report entitled "E3 2007 Review: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly" in which Mr. Pachter fills you in on the stocks to buy, hold on to, and sell in the relative future (Cliffs Notes version found after the break).

Pachter says the theme of this E3 was "non-traditional" game software. Music games, games targeting or including female gamers and titles focused on the casual market. He also says that unlike prior E3s, access to new product offerings was relatively unrestricted -- well yeah, because everyone was there for business and barely had time to see the hangar. The key companies Pachter says to invest in are Activision, EA, THQ and Ubisoft. He also says the the big news of E3 was the Sony "price cut" and that he expects Microsoft to follow by the end of the year. But what about that 60GB not being manufactured news? Pachter thinks the $499 PS3 is here to stay and, when those 60GB units are depleted, the 80GB model will take its place.

Continue reading Pachter pauses to percolate E3 thoughts, says $499 PS3 is here to stay

JoystiqPachter pauses to percolate E3 thoughts, says $499 PS3 is here to stay originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 16 Jul 2007 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>E3e307investorsMichaelPachterpachterstockwall streetMon, 16 Jul 2007 12:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: Hey Activision, watch out for Rock Band]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/06/04/pachter-hey-activision-watch-out-for-rock-band/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/06/04/pachter-hey-activision-watch-out-for-rock-band/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/06/04/pachter-hey-activision-watch-out-for-rock-band/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,


Unfortunately, we can't attribute Michael Pachter's warning to Activision as a direct quote, as analysts are forbidden from saying "Hey" and are forced to substitute the informal greeting with "pardon me" or "pay attention to me, please." In commenting on Activision's glowing fiscal report and strong NPD presence to GameDaily BIZ, Pachter draws attention to several challenges Activision faces in the coming months. "All things are not perfect in Activision's world," he says.

Pachter predicts that the glaring imperfections (to put it mildly) highlighted by reviewers in the Spider-Man 3 games will curtail sales, and that Call of Duty 4's proposed Iraq setting may prove to leave an equally bad taste in the consumer's mouth. More interestingly, the analyst notes that if Harmonix's EA-published Rock Band is fully playable with just a guitar controller, it will "compete quite favorably with Activision's [Guitar Hero]." He suspects the instrument protagonist genre will remain kind to RedOctane's owner, but adds that "new entrants will impact future growth of the band." Or did he mean brand?

Once the dust settles in the battle of the fake bands, will Pachter still stand by his belief that Activision was right to buy RedOctane over Harmonix?

JoystiqPachter: Hey Activision, watch out for Rock Band originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 12:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>ActivisionAnalystCall of DutyCall of Duty 4CallOfDutyCallOfDuty4Guitar HeroGuitarHeroMichael PachterMichaelPachterPachterPS2PS3Spider-Man 3Spider-man3WiiXbox-360Mon, 04 Jun 2007 12:01:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter estimates only 100k PS3's sold in April ... ouch]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/15/pachter-estimates-only-100k-ps3s-sold-in-april-ouch/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/15/pachter-estimates-only-100k-ps3s-sold-in-april-ouch/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/15/pachter-estimates-only-100k-ps3s-sold-in-april-ouch/#commentsWedbush Morgan analyst David Pachter just can't seem to stay out of the spotlight -- he's already been quoted on here today claiming a price cut for the PS3 is due this summer. Now he's estimating console sales for April and it seems like he's decided that April was the worst month for the PS3 so far. Citing a mere 100,000 consoles sold for the US (these are NPD numbers, so it's just the US), this is about 30,000 fewer units than the previous month and way lower than the competition. He estimated 300,000 Wii's sold, 175,000 360's, the usual dominance of the DS and the PS2 selling better than both the PS3 and 360.

Software sales are up 24%, he estimates. Chances are this is no thanks to the PS3 since it released zero exclusive titles. He says that upcoming multiplatform games (like those based on movies) will sell the best on the PS2. This is probably due to userbase, plus cost of games for the PS2 seems to have dropped to a $39.99 price point (at least, around Georgia it seems that way). Sales of the PS2 may taper off once people replace the system for a next-gen one (but want to keep their current library), but that's only if the PS3 can show its muscle. In the coming months, that seems very likely.

[via GameDaily]

JoystiqPachter estimates only 100k PS3's sold in April ... ouch originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 15 May 2007 21:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Michael PachterMichaelPachterNPDPlayStation 3Playstation3PS3SonyTue, 15 May 2007 21:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst predicts price cut for the PS3 this summer]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/15/analyst-predicts-price-cut-for-the-ps3-this-summer/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/15/analyst-predicts-price-cut-for-the-ps3-this-summer/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/15/analyst-predicts-price-cut-for-the-ps3-this-summer/#comments Videogame analyst superstar Michael Pachter expects there to be a price cut for the PlayStation 3 by the end of the year, and says that it might even come as early as this summer. GI.biz quotes Pachter,

"It is possible that Sony's cost of production for the PS3 has declined to the point that the company may consider a hardware price cut some time this summer, and we may see a price cut for the PS2 before the holidays."

As long as Sony's manufacturing costs have dropped to a reasonable rate, I'd heartily encourage Sony to drop the price of the PS3 as soon as possible. It's very clear that people desperately WANT a PS3, but just can't afford it. Dropping it to $500US and then marketing the hell out of the price drop would do wonders for their sales. Just look at what a 30 dollar price drop did for the PSP.

JoystiqAnalyst predicts price cut for the PS3 this summer originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 15 May 2007 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>costmichael pachterMichaelPachterpachterprice cutPriceCutTue, 15 May 2007 15:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst: Blu-ray, and therefore PS3, will win]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/08/analyst-blu-ray-and-therefore-ps3-will-win/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/08/analyst-blu-ray-and-therefore-ps3-will-win/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/08/analyst-blu-ray-and-therefore-ps3-will-win/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has drawn a parallel between the success of a high-definition format and its related game console, believing that Sony will gain an "insurmountable advantage" over Microsoft if movie studios embrace Blu-ray, and vice-versa for Microsoft to "maintain its first mover advantage."

"Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios," he said.

Pachter ultimately predicts a close, three-way tie in the market share for this generation of consoles: Sony at 36%, Nintendo at 34% and Microsoft at 30%. In Japan, he said, Ninendo will have a 51% share through 2011 (is Pachter also a time traveler?), Sony with 44% and Microsoft presumably with the remaining 5%.

Remember, for every conclusion you may draw from Pachter's report, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other analysts with contradictory conclusions. Should either high-definition format come out on top, it still has to contend with its big brother, DVD, for some time now, and therefore its impact on the console wars is minimal at best compared to the system's relative price and software.

[Via PS3 Fanboy]

JoystiqAnalyst: Blu-ray, and therefore PS3, will win originally appeared on Joystiq on Tue, 08 May 2007 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystblu rayBluRayhd dvdHdDvdmichael pachterMichaelPachterpachterPS3WiiXbox-360Tue, 08 May 2007 13:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter: PlayStation 3 will win next-gen war because of Blu-Ray]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/07/pachter-playstation-3-will-win-next-gen-war-because-of-blu-ray/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/07/pachter-playstation-3-will-win-next-gen-war-because-of-blu-ray/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/07/pachter-playstation-3-will-win-next-gen-war-because-of-blu-ray/#commentsThe most recent Wedbush Morgan report has been released and in it, Michael Pachter states that he believes that Blu-Ray may actually be the deciding factor in the console wars. At the end of the PS3/Wii/360 generation, he expects Sony to 'win' with a 36% market share, largely due to the strong movie industry support of Blu-Ray.

Interestingly though, he also states that this console cycle will essentially be "a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits." This is great news for videogame fans everywhere, since an evenly divided market will mean that each of the consoles will have a chance to grow and mature as they age. This may be PS3 Fanboy, but I really don't want any of the current consoles to pull a Dreamcast.

JoystiqPachter: PlayStation 3 will win next-gen war because of Blu-Ray originally appeared on Joystiq on Mon, 07 May 2007 21:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystconsole warConsoleWarforecastmichael pachterMichaelPachterwedbush morganWedbushMorganMon, 07 May 2007 21:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Sony will never catch up, but that doesn't matter]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/04/07/sony-will-never-catch-up-but-that-doesnt-matter/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/04/07/sony-will-never-catch-up-but-that-doesnt-matter/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/04/07/sony-will-never-catch-up-but-that-doesnt-matter/#commentsFiled under:

Chris Kohler's Game | Life blog has a great Q&A session with Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter. When the analyst was asked about the widening gap between DS and PSP, he had this to say: "I don't think Sony will close the gap, and don't think it is important that they do so. Nintendo has over 20 million loyal GBA owners, and we should expect them to dominate the category that they invented. Sony is late to the handheld game, has tried to approach the market from an older demographic, and is just now trying to beef up more kid-friendly content to appeal to 13-17 year olds. I don't think that the gap matters at all, so long as Sony makes money. I also believe that price elasticity of demand dictates that the lower priced product will sell more units. That's why there are more Fords than Maseratis."

While Sony will most likely never be number one this generation, they've gone a long way in changing the handheld marketplace. As long as people continue to buy the system and continue to buy the games, the platform will remain more than viable.

[Via AMN]

JoystiqSony will never catch up, but that doesn't matter originally appeared on Joystiq on Sat, 07 Apr 2007 22:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>game lifeGameLifemichael pachterMichaelPachterpspwedbush morganWedbushMorganSat, 07 Apr 2007 22:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Take Two shareholders oust CEO]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/03/30/take-two-shareholders-ousts-ceo/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/03/30/take-two-shareholders-ousts-ceo/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/03/30/take-two-shareholders-ousts-ceo/#commentsFiled under:

Did you catch the Take Two shareholders meeting yesterday? Don't worry if you missed it, the event turned out to be much less dramatic than we had hoped. However, it was not without some ruffled feathers, as now-former CEO Paul Eibeler was shown the door. Taking his place is Ben Feder, a former executive at News Corp, as acting CEO.

Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities expresses disappointment that the new management is giving themselves a three- to six-month window. Also, Pachter said of Feder, "he appears to have no meaningful experience managing a large organization, nor does his resume suggest that he has any practical experience in the video game industry."

Game Politics has a roundup of more opinions regarding this executive shuffle. Our take, however limited in scope, is that Eibeler was a beacon for bad news. His ousting can only spell an upward trend.

JoystiqTake Two shareholders oust CEO originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 30 Mar 2007 13:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eibelergame politicsGamePoliticsmichael pachterMichaelPachterpachterpaul eibelerPaulEibelerrock starRockStartake 2take twoTake2TakeTwoFri, 30 Mar 2007 13:18:00 EST<![CDATA[Pachter gets one right; GameStop stock worth buying]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2007/01/04/pachter-gets-one-right-gamestop-stock-worth-buying/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/01/04/pachter-gets-one-right-gamestop-stock-worth-buying/http://www.joystiq.com/2007/01/04/pachter-gets-one-right-gamestop-stock-worth-buying/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

When video game analysts are mentioned, most of us who closely follow game news think of Michael Pachter. Like any analyst, their predictions aren't perfect. In fact, many abide by the 51% rule; if you get at least 51% of your predictions right, you're a good analyst.

Back in November, Pachter predicted GameStop (GME) to ride a wave of consumer spending on video games. GameStop has released some information proving that buy a good one. GameStop has increased its already strong revenue outlook by $50 million and its Q4 earnings per share from $1.53-$1.59 to $1.58-$1.60.

On top of other interesting sales promotions, GameStop certainly enjoyed the console launches and top-selling games like Gears of War immensely. GameStop is still looking like a strong buy with the strong Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii lineups for 2007 along with continuing PS2 support (though not everyone is in consensus on this). Since we're going to make some money off this one, we're going to forgive Pachter for some of his missed predictions.

JoystiqPachter gets one right; GameStop stock worth buying originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 04 Jan 2007 19:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>360console launchConsoleLaunchgame analystgame predictionsgame stopGameAnalystGamePredictionsgamestopmichael pachterMichaelPachternintendo wiiNintendoWiiplaystation 2playstation 3Playstation2Playstation3ps2ps3video game analystvideo game predictionsVideoGameAnalystVideoGamePredictionswiixbox 360Xbox-360Xbox360Thu, 04 Jan 2007 19:25:00 EST<![CDATA[The mind of a video game analyst]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/21/the-mind-of-a-video-game-analyst/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/21/the-mind-of-a-video-game-analyst/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/21/the-mind-of-a-video-game-analyst/#commentsFiled under:

Analysts are the life-blood of investors. We need some kind of opinion of where a company may be going; if we don't get it, we feel uneasy about a company's future. Michael Pachter is one of those people.

In an interview with N'Gai Croal, Pachter primarily discusses his bullish Xbox 360 predictions and how they've essentially fallen flat. He cites the bigger impact the lack of HD sets in homes had as well as miscalculated the price-insensitivity of the hardcore crowd. He thinks a simple price cut won't solve the matters (at least until his magical $150 mark is hit). Pachter further states he expects the PS3 to sell at the same rate as the 360 did since launch.

Given Pachter's history, we're beginning to wonder if he is on a stretch of bad luck, or shouldn't be listened to at all. He did predict the PS3 would outsell the Wii (then called Revolution) by up-to 60% this year as well as predicted 2006 to be a slow year for gaming (deemed wrong by his future prediction to buy GameStop stock); neither prediction came out close. We guess it is true; analysts are people paid to have an opinion.

JoystiqThe mind of a video game analyst originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 21 Dec 2006 21:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>game analysisgame analystsgame opinionsGameAnalysisGameAnalystsGameOpinionshack opinionsHackOpinionsmichael pachterMichaelPachterThu, 21 Dec 2006 21:55:00 EST<![CDATA[Analysts promise they're not just making it all up]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/08/analysts-promise-theyre-not-just-making-it-all-up/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/08/analysts-promise-theyre-not-just-making-it-all-up/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/08/analysts-promise-theyre-not-just-making-it-all-up/#commentsFiled under: ,

Ever had the fleeting thought that maybe those video game analysts just don't quite know what they're about? Don't worry, it's not just you -- even they admit that the ever-changing market can be a challenge to ride.

Next-Gen's Krist Graft sat down with Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities to discuss the challenges of predicting the business of video games. How does he do it? The same as any 'armchair' analyst, Pachter keeps up with the news. Some firms (like WMS) change their predictions as often as there are new developments, and this tumultuous week has brought about some major updates. What else? Analysts look for comparisons in gauging what's hot in the console war. He pointed to the success of the DS, particularly games that employ the stylus, as evidence that Nintendo is on the cutting edge of the interactivity that consumers want. Trend-spotting like that forms the basis of so much analysis in video games.

What's the final verdict for us? "The Wii's going to crush," Pachter says. Well, we don't understand all this fancy-schmancy business jargon he's using there, but we have to agree.

JoystiqAnalysts promise they're not just making it all up originally appeared on Joystiq on Fri, 08 Sep 2006 09:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystconsole warsConsoleWarsDSDS LiteDsLiteMichael PachterMichaelPachternext generationNext-GenNextGenerationNintendoWiiWMSFri, 08 Sep 2006 09:25:00 EST<![CDATA[Analyst becomes less bullish for Sony]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/06/analyst-becomes-less-bullish-for-sony/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/06/analyst-becomes-less-bullish-for-sony/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/06/analyst-becomes-less-bullish-for-sony/#commentsFiled under:


Wedbush Morgan is one of those places where people sit around in a dark room, pondering the future. They make up numbers that predict future sales, shoot lightning out their hands, and they have three heads. Michael Pachter is one of those men. While he was optimistic for Sony's handheld at the beginning of the year, he seems to be reconsidering his position: "We are lowering ... our forecast for PSP sales from 8.5 million to 7.4 million, and increasing our expectation for DS sales from 6.5 million to 8 million."

This isn't really too bad: even if PSP isn't number one in sales, it still has done much better than any non-Nintendo gaming handheld in the past. Regardless, the analyst had tons of good things to say about Nintendo, and not so much about Sony: he decreased his 2006 PS3 hardware sales estimate by 1 million units (to 3 million) and increased his 2006 Wii hardware sales by 500,000 to (4 million). Of course, it's not just the analyst that sees good things for Nintendo: the shareholders do as well.

[News via Gamespot]
[Sales chart for US. DS has a few weeks extra data due to an earlier launch. Via VG Charts]

JoystiqAnalyst becomes less bullish for Sony originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 06 Sep 2006 01:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdsmichael pachterMichaelPachternintendoplaystation 3Playstation3ps3pspsalessonywedbush morganWedbushMorganwiiWed, 06 Sep 2006 01:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Surprise, surprise, no price cut expected]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/27/surprise-surprise-no-price-cut-expected/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/27/surprise-surprise-no-price-cut-expected/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/27/surprise-surprise-no-price-cut-expected/#commentsFiled under: ,

Next Generation more or less shot down yesterday's rumored price cut for the 360. Basically all they did was reiterate everything we said, only more elaborately and eloquently (we're still flattered though). Michael Pachter of Morgan Securities breaks it down old-school analyst style:

" ... The company plans to sell 10 million Xbox 360 hardware units over the next year, so a price cut in November would likely impact 8 million of these, costing the company $800 million. At a software royalty profit of around $10 per unit, the company would have to sell 80 million incremental software units in order to be in the same place as without a price cut.

" ... Our model has Microsoft selling only around 60 million total units of software this fiscal year, so in order to break even on a price cut, they would have to sell 140 million pieces of software. Remember, we're talking about profitability for FY:07, not over the life of the 360."

That's a lot of software. Next Gen even mentions Peter Moore's comments to Joystiq during E3: "We had a price drop ... when Sony announced their price."

So, don't expect a price drop before next year. Do expect a software bundle instead.

[Thanks, Thomas Crymes]

JoystiqSurprise, surprise, no price cut expected originally appeared on Joystiq on Thu, 27 Jul 2006 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>360cutmichael pachterMichaelPachtermorgan securitiesMorganSecuritiespriceprice cutPriceCutxboxxbox 360Xbox360Thu, 27 Jul 2006 10:00:00 EST<![CDATA[GTA:LCS PS2 coming 6/6/06 for $20]]>http://www.joystiq.com/2006/04/19/gta-lcs-ps2-coming-6-6-06-for-20/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/04/19/gta-lcs-ps2-coming-6-6-06-for-20/http://www.joystiq.com/2006/04/19/gta-lcs-ps2-coming-6-6-06-for-20/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

Just as we reported, Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories for the PS2 has been delayed. Apparently the game will debut on June 6th at a RRP of US$19.99/€29.99/£19.99. The game was originally scheduled to be released on April 24th at $29.99.

On the surface the reduced price looks like an attempt to appease impatient gamers. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks that it goes deeper than that: "we believe that the lower than expected price point for GTA LCS implies that the game is a straight port from the PSP, with few (if any) enhancements to graphics or game play" and that "although we believe that the game will sell a greater number of units at a higher [sic] (we think he meant lower) price point, we think that overall sales may suffer if the game is not sufficiently different from the PSP version."

As it is, Wedbush Morgan thinks that Take Two could sell "3 million units at $16 (for total revenues of $48 million) instead of 1.9 million at $28 in our model (total revenues of $53 million)", which mean the delay might cost Take Two $5 million. Ouch.

Of course, there's still the possibility that Morgan is underestimating the game's sale figures: they predicted that T2 would sell 900,000 copies of Elder Scrolls in the time immediately after its release, when in fact Take Two recently announced that they've sold 1.7 million units.

JoystiqGTA:LCS PS2 coming 6/6/06 for $20 originally appeared on Joystiq on Wed, 19 Apr 2006 10:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Grand Theft Auto Liberty City StoriesGrandTheftAutoLibertyCityStoriesGTA LCSGtaLcsLiberty CityLibertyCityMichael PachterMichaelPachterPS2PSPWedbush MorganWedbushMorganWed, 19 Apr 2006 10:55:00 EST