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In one day, the NPD Group will release its game sales report for the month of November, which should reveal the (near) exact number of units Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has sold in the US thus far. In the meantime, Gamespot reported on two analysts who have predicted the portion of November software sales that were made up of Warfare purchases. Industry analyst superstar Michael Pachter says the game accounts for 23 percent of total game sales. However, Pacific Crest analyst Evan Wilson has it pegged at 25 percent of total November sales.

Wilson added that this feat is made especially impressive due to his firm's prediction that "this November's sales will match the month's highest historical total on record." In related news, news stories dealing with Modern Warfare 2 composed 67.2 percent of all news stories over the past month. Oh, wait -- now it's 67.5 percent!

Though it's always risky to call a winner before the race is over, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich figures there's basically no chance that the best-selling home console of this generation will be anything but the Nintendo Wii -- even if Nintendo were to suffer an unusually bad few years, and its competitors were to enjoy unusually good years.

Here's Divnich's "worst-case scenario": "For the Wii, let us assume a 25% decline in sales next year," he postulates, "followed by two years of 30% declines, and a 50% decline in 2013. For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

Even with those unlikely numbers, Divnich says, the Wii comes out selling about as much as the PS2 has, and claims victory over the Xbox 360 and PS3. The reality will, of course, be much more complicated than the projection. Divnich notes that Nintendo is likely to release some kind of new hardware, either in the form of a bundle or an upgraded system, that will affect sales; "Additionally, we know that Sony plans to support the PS3 through 2016, which means there are three additional years where Sony could gain a tremendous amount of ground on the Wii and Xbox 360 by being able to offer an affordable Blu-ray player to consumers (very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player)."

Still, it seems that the only chance for a second-place Wii is for the DS to eventually become large enough to count as a home console.

While Take-Two has a number of solid properties, such as BioShock and Borderlands, Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto is unquestionably its largest and most important franchise. However, sluggish sales of recent GTA efforts, from the handheld Chinatown Wars to the 360-exclusive DLC Episodes from Liberty City, have Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter worried about the future of Take-Two's flagship brand.

"Has the Grand Theft Auto franchise peaked? Given the strength of GTA IV in 2008, the question may seem misplaced, but our concern is that the very highly rated new GTA content for Xbox as well as PSP and DS did not perform up to expectations in 2009," Scahchter notes, while addressing potential criticisms to his claim. "Now, we very clearly understand that these do not represent 'true' new GTA titles. However, the fact is that these were compelling titles, attractively priced, and reasonably well-promoted, yet they fell relatively flat."

The idea that review scores don't matter is nothing new around Joystiq. We've seen the argument made by EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, specifically in reference to DS games. Michael Pachter and Peter Moore have leveled the same claim at Wii games as well. Now, Cowen Group's Doug Creutz tells Gamasutra that the score generated by aggregators like Metacritic is the least important factor in how well a game performs.

Creutz notes that scores can be "somewhat predictive" of a game's success, but are "unlikely in and of themselves to drive or undermine the success of a game." He then mentions the industry scuttlebutt that many publishers work very hard to jockey scores, saying that publishers' time would be better spent on development instead of "grade-grubbing."

The major factors in purchasing decisions, according to Creutz, are genre, whether a player liked the previous game in a series and, unsurprisingly, price. So there you have it publishers, to be successful, all you have to do is make a sequel to a popular game in a genre that a lot of people like. And make it cheap. If that's not possible, two out of three ain't bad.

Now that Modern Warfare 2 has smashed launch records -- raking in serious cash in the process -- the way is paved for inevitable downloadable content. DLC will likely rake in serious cash of its own, according to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, who tells IndustryGamers that DLC could bring in an additional $100-140 million in revenue next year. The figure is based on the DLC attach rate for the previous Call of Duty title, World at War, which sold 0.625 downloadable map packs per copy, according to Schachter. At $10 each, that means every copy of World at War generated an additional $6.25 after the initial retail purchase.

Assuming there are 14-16 million copies of Modern Warfare 2 in players homes by the time DLC launches, Schachter says the content could generate up to $140 million, minus the portion Activision has to pay to platform holders that host the DLC. Schachter also believes DLC will go beyond map packs, theorizing that Infinity Ward could offer in-game items, new game modes and new missions (more co-op sniping, please). Of course, expanded DLC content could result in higher prices this time around.

Only time will tell how well Modern Warfare 2 does post launch but, regardless of what kind of content is on offer, we imagine it will probably do okay.

Analyst Ben Schachter estimates that Modern Warfare 2, that game you're playing right now, sold seven million copies worldwide in its first day on the market, almost doubling the first-day sales of Grand Theft Auto IV (3.6 million). 1.2 million copies have already been accounted for in the UK -- not coincidentally, also double that region's first-day total for GTA IV. That trend went into Schachter's estimate.

"With GTA IV selling-through 6mm units worldwide in its first week," Schachter said, "that suggests week one of Modern Warfare 2 worldwide sell-through could approximate ~11.7mm. While 2x the week one tally for GTA IV may seem aggressive, the bottom line is that we believe current consensus estimates of around 12mm for the December quarter may end up being conservative."

Here's an eye-opening number for context: Street Fighter II on SNES, which we think of as ubiquitous, sold 6.3 million copies worldwide. Total.

If you haven't heard, the PlayStation Wii is so successful, it pretty much prints money. Wait, Sony didn't make the Wii? Then how did the market analysts of DFC Intelligence come to the conclusion that "Sony was saved by the success of the Wii?"

According to DFC, the Wii's mainstream appeal forced Microsoft into a successful, but not entirely dominant position. "The main danger Sony faced was that the Xbox 360 would become embedded as the system of choice. Instead consumers flocked to the Nintendo Wii. The Xbox 360 had solid sales, but they have not been enough to give Microsoft anywhere near a breakout market position," the report explains.

Should enthusiasm for the Wii wane this holiday season, the recent price drop, coupled with with impending release of God of War III, finally positions the PS3 as a viable choice for mainstream consumers, the report notes. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich agrees, pointing out that Sony can finally utilize its leverage from the previous generation. "People who purchase a PS2 are more likely to purchase a PS3 in the future. Consumers, believe it or not, are pretty loyal."

Three years after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray is also finally becoming a marketable feature for mainstream consumers, the report argues. "This holiday season Blu-ray movies are finally getting a major focus at retail ... Blu-ray clearly now becomes a strong selling point for the PlayStation 3." Undoubtedly, SCEA will create an ad that focuses on this aspect of the system that "only does everything."

While DFC's report comes off as incredibly bullish, it's understandable to see why there's some doubt over Sony's ability to capitalize on the moment. Let's not forget, this is a company that managed to fall from first to last place in the course of a year. "The cards are in Sony's favor and now is the time to make the most of them ... Now is the time for Sony to shine ... or else."

[Via CVG]

Source - Is it Time for the PlayStation 3 to Shine?
Source - How the venerable PlayStation 2 made it to 9 years old

Even though GameStop seems to be accepting the inevitable digital future, one analyst says the major gaming retailer won't feel the pinch from online game delivery services until 2017. According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, limited storage capacity and bandwidth limitations mean it is "unlikely" that digital services will have a "meaningful impact" on GameStop's sales within this console cycle. Schachter doesn't anticipate the next console cycle to kick off until some time in 2014 and, even if future formats are completely digital, believes it will still take a number of years for market penetration to reach a threatening level to the retail business.

For an example of "proof" to his claims, Schachter points to the "very disappointing sales" of the digital download exclusive, Grand Theft Auto IV: The Lost & Damned. Confusing, considering all previous accounts have pointed to the downloadable expansion as seeing strong sales since release.

"The bottom line is that retail still matters," Schachter told IndustryGamers. While some analysts are keen on throwing the brick-and-motar chain under the bus during the increasing digital age, Schachter claims Gamestop "continues to defy the naysayers." He went on to ask if we wanted to pre-order any future games industry analysis.

2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.

The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.

Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).

It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.

With the revelation of the PS3 Slim and its accompanying price cut, it looks like things are really on the up and up for Sony. It seems that things are so up that many consumers may have difficulty finding a PS3 on the shelves. According to Stern Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia -- as reported on IndustryGamers -- strong "pent-up" demand may lead to PS3 shortages by the end of September. Furthermore, he expects that September sales of the console may climb as much as 75 percent over last year, possibly more if supplies hold up.

Finally, Bhatia noted that strong PS3 sales could affect sales of the 360 as well. The reason, according to Bhatia, is that the 360 Arcade SKU maintained its $199 price while the Elite price drop really amounted to no more than a replacement of the Pro tier. Joystiq would be remiss not to point out that the Elite bundle even received a few downgrades in the process.

Looks like Jack Tretton may have made that $1200 bet two and a half years too soon.

Yesterday, Electronic Arts CEO John Ricitiello pointed to a downward turn in game sales this summer as a prime culprit in what he called a "discouraging" August kickoff for one of the "highest-rated and best-marketed Madden titles in years." Still, that didn't explain the 42 percent decline in sales for the franchise on Nintendo's console. So, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, games market analyst at EEDAR, to get his thoughts on the fairly "oh, wow"-worthy revelation.

More than anything, Divnich believes that gamers' experience with last year's game on Wii influenced their decision to not give the franchise a second shot on the system. "I believe many diehard Madden fans, who transitioned from the PS2 to the Wii, made their yearly Madden purchase in 2008 and realized that the Wii could not offer the same experience they have grown accustom to (online play, realistic graphics, in-depth team management)," he told Joystiq.

The game's motion control gameplay features -- versus the familiar DualShock 2 -- might also have been a turn-off, Divnich said, likening it to the slow acceptance of console controllers for use in first-person shooters. "Anyone introduced to the FPS category through the keyboard/mouse combination even still today refuses to accept the analog controllers as a legitimate FPS controller," he remarked.

Ultimately, though, Divnich came back to the PS2-to-Wii user's experience with last year's Madden. "Avid Madden fans have the curse of knowledge ... and they know that Madden cannot offer the same experience on the Wii as it did for the PS2."

So yes, prognosticator of all electronic entertainment Michael Pachter told Gamasutra that he expects Take-Two to release the fifth full Grand Theft Auto game in 2010. It seems far-fetched to us (especially with another GTA IV episode still in the pipeline). But, sadly, Pachter doesn't give us a lot to work with in the piece, so, in the absence of details, we're just going to assume he's right. Journalized.

One thing that's actually hard to argue about from the piece, analysts are overwhelmingly positive about Take-Two in 2010 with a bevy of big titles like BioShock 2, Mafia 2, Red Dead Redemption and several others. Does Take-Two even need a Grand Theft Auto next year?

Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model.

Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software?

Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning?