Analyst Ben Schachter estimates that Modern Warfare 2, that game you're playing right now, sold seven million copies worldwide in its first day on the market, almost doubling the first-day sales of Grand Theft Auto IV (3.6 million). 1.2 million copies have already been accounted for in the UK -- not coincidentally, also double that region's first-day total for GTA IV. That trend went into Schachter's estimate.

"With GTA IV selling-through 6mm units worldwide in its first week," Schachter said, "that suggests week one of Modern Warfare 2 worldwide sell-through could approximate ~11.7mm. While 2x the week one tally for GTA IV may seem aggressive, the bottom line is that we believe current consensus estimates of around 12mm for the December quarter may end up being conservative."

Here's an eye-opening number for context: Street Fighter II on SNES, which we think of as ubiquitous, sold 6.3 million copies worldwide. Total.

If you haven't heard, the PlayStation Wii is so successful, it pretty much prints money. Wait, Sony didn't make the Wii? Then how did the market analysts of DFC Intelligence come to the conclusion that "Sony was saved by the success of the Wii?"

According to DFC, the Wii's mainstream appeal forced Microsoft into a successful, but not entirely dominant position. "The main danger Sony faced was that the Xbox 360 would become embedded as the system of choice. Instead consumers flocked to the Nintendo Wii. The Xbox 360 had solid sales, but they have not been enough to give Microsoft anywhere near a breakout market position," the report explains.

Should enthusiasm for the Wii wane this holiday season, the recent price drop, coupled with with impending release of God of War III, finally positions the PS3 as a viable choice for mainstream consumers, the report notes. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich agrees, pointing out that Sony can finally utilize its leverage from the previous generation. "People who purchase a PS2 are more likely to purchase a PS3 in the future. Consumers, believe it or not, are pretty loyal."

Three years after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray is also finally becoming a marketable feature for mainstream consumers, the report argues. "This holiday season Blu-ray movies are finally getting a major focus at retail ... Blu-ray clearly now becomes a strong selling point for the PlayStation 3." Undoubtedly, SCEA will create an ad that focuses on this aspect of the system that "only does everything."

While DFC's report comes off as incredibly bullish, it's understandable to see why there's some doubt over Sony's ability to capitalize on the moment. Let's not forget, this is a company that managed to fall from first to last place in the course of a year. "The cards are in Sony's favor and now is the time to make the most of them ... Now is the time for Sony to shine ... or else."

[Via CVG]

Source - Is it Time for the PlayStation 3 to Shine?
Source - How the venerable PlayStation 2 made it to 9 years old

Even though GameStop seems to be accepting the inevitable digital future, one analyst says the major gaming retailer won't feel the pinch from online game delivery services until 2017. According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, limited storage capacity and bandwidth limitations mean it is "unlikely" that digital services will have a "meaningful impact" on GameStop's sales within this console cycle. Schachter doesn't anticipate the next console cycle to kick off until some time in 2014 and, even if future formats are completely digital, believes it will still take a number of years for market penetration to reach a threatening level to the retail business.

For an example of "proof" to his claims, Schachter points to the "very disappointing sales" of the digital download exclusive, Grand Theft Auto IV: The Lost & Damned. Confusing, considering all previous accounts have pointed to the downloadable expansion as seeing strong sales since release.

"The bottom line is that retail still matters," Schachter told IndustryGamers. While some analysts are keen on throwing the brick-and-motar chain under the bus during the increasing digital age, Schachter claims Gamestop "continues to defy the naysayers." He went on to ask if we wanted to pre-order any future games industry analysis.

2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.

The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.

Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).

It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.

With the revelation of the PS3 Slim and its accompanying price cut, it looks like things are really on the up and up for Sony. It seems that things are so up that many consumers may have difficulty finding a PS3 on the shelves. According to Stern Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia -- as reported on IndustryGamers -- strong "pent-up" demand may lead to PS3 shortages by the end of September. Furthermore, he expects that September sales of the console may climb as much as 75 percent over last year, possibly more if supplies hold up.

Finally, Bhatia noted that strong PS3 sales could affect sales of the 360 as well. The reason, according to Bhatia, is that the 360 Arcade SKU maintained its $199 price while the Elite price drop really amounted to no more than a replacement of the Pro tier. Joystiq would be remiss not to point out that the Elite bundle even received a few downgrades in the process.

Looks like Jack Tretton may have made that $1200 bet two and a half years too soon.

Yesterday, Electronic Arts CEO John Ricitiello pointed to a downward turn in game sales this summer as a prime culprit in what he called a "discouraging" August kickoff for one of the "highest-rated and best-marketed Madden titles in years." Still, that didn't explain the 42 percent decline in sales for the franchise on Nintendo's console. So, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, games market analyst at EEDAR, to get his thoughts on the fairly "oh, wow"-worthy revelation.

More than anything, Divnich believes that gamers' experience with last year's game on Wii influenced their decision to not give the franchise a second shot on the system. "I believe many diehard Madden fans, who transitioned from the PS2 to the Wii, made their yearly Madden purchase in 2008 and realized that the Wii could not offer the same experience they have grown accustom to (online play, realistic graphics, in-depth team management)," he told Joystiq.

The game's motion control gameplay features -- versus the familiar DualShock 2 -- might also have been a turn-off, Divnich said, likening it to the slow acceptance of console controllers for use in first-person shooters. "Anyone introduced to the FPS category through the keyboard/mouse combination even still today refuses to accept the analog controllers as a legitimate FPS controller," he remarked.

Ultimately, though, Divnich came back to the PS2-to-Wii user's experience with last year's Madden. "Avid Madden fans have the curse of knowledge ... and they know that Madden cannot offer the same experience on the Wii as it did for the PS2."

So yes, prognosticator of all electronic entertainment Michael Pachter told Gamasutra that he expects Take-Two to release the fifth full Grand Theft Auto game in 2010. It seems far-fetched to us (especially with another GTA IV episode still in the pipeline). But, sadly, Pachter doesn't give us a lot to work with in the piece, so, in the absence of details, we're just going to assume he's right. Journalized.

One thing that's actually hard to argue about from the piece, analysts are overwhelmingly positive about Take-Two in 2010 with a bevy of big titles like BioShock 2, Mafia 2, Red Dead Redemption and several others. Does Take-Two even need a Grand Theft Auto next year?

Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model.

Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software?

Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning?

According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, the Wii hardware sales numbers that NPD reported yesterday were the lowest since the November 2006 launch of the system. "Although Wii Sports Resort sold well," he commented to IndustryGamers, "it appears to have offered little lift to Wii hardware sales, increasing the probability in our view that Nintendo must lower the price soon (we expect a September cut)."

Of course, Schachter didn't mention the Wii's position relative to its competitors. Considering that the Wii's worst month ever meant that it plummeted into the #1 position among home consoles, and #2 overall behind the DS, it's possible that Nintendo could see this a bit differently from analysts and ... price drop enthusiasts.

According to Cowan and Company analyst Doug Creutz, expected price cuts for all major consoles won't stimulate sales as much as previous cuts have in the past, reports GI.biz. The reason, according to Creutz, is increased "pressure on consumers" brought on by the current economic climate. That said, Creutz still believes that price cuts are imminent, specifically a $100 cut to the PS3, $50 from the Wii and a new $300 price for the Xbox 360.

Of course, given the rumors and evidence flying around the web these days, you don't really need an analyst to tell you that. Creutz expects price drop announcements as early as the Gamescom convention next week. (Joystiq's Magic 8-Ball strongly agrees.)

On the software side of things, Creutz expects year-over-year sales to continue to decline, starting with the incoming July NPD numbers. Another drop will occur in August, but things may turn around in September because nothing gets the cash flowing like Guitar Hero and Halo.

Best Buy surprised the gaming public last week with the revelation that it was testing a new pricing program that would see the retailer selling new games at used prices. Specifically, the test store in Utah will match the used game prices of both GameStop and Game Crazy. According to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, the program isn't likely to last very long.

"I don't think it will do well," Pachter tells Game Politics, adding that price matching forces Best Buy to "either cuts their profit per game in half, or wipes it out altogether." He expresses the opinion that Best Buy can't afford to chop $10 off the price of a $60 game, saying that such a practice won't be effective "in the long run." Furthermore, even if the program does take off, Pachter believes GameStop will simply lower its used game prices "to the point where Best Buy can't match without losing money."

He has a point, but, from the consumer perspective, it's hard to see a downside. Whether Best Buy's program succeeds or not, it still means lower prices, if only for a short time.

Among the many fascinating (and not so fascinating) takeaways from Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's recent and massive industry report are revelations about the current console adoption rate. As much as the Wii has seemingly penetrated previously untapped demographics (see grandma's now defunct bridge club) and ostensibly raised console adoption rates to new highs, the current generation is practically dead even with the last one when comparing the two generation's first four calendar years on the market. That is, from 2005 (when Xbox 360 launched in late November) through 2008, the current generation of consoles (Wii, PS3 and 360) combined for approximately 78 million unit sales, according to Wedbush Morgan estimates. Comparatively, from 2000 (the year PS2 launched) through 2003, the previous generation (GameCube, PS2 and Xbox) combined for 78–79 million unit sales. However, in this pivotal fifth year, Wedbush Morgan predicts the current adoption rate will begin to pull ahead of the previous rate.