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Reader Comments (178)

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 3:23PM (Unverified) said

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Do these number include Virtual Console or XBL Arcade sales?

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 3:30PM falcomadol said

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Definitely not.

I've bought like 90 XBLA games already. I'm psycho, but I'm seriously making up for anyone who isn't even signed up for silver, I think.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 5:41PM Slaziman said

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Pretty lame since a lot of those XBLA games are on par or better than most Wii games.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 3:25PM (Unverified) said

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Wow, what a condescending article. Anyone who throws around the term "actual gamers" like it means something needs to reevaluate some things.

-Moses

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 6:12PM (Unverified) said

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You guys suck at statistics. First of all, the 360's lead in ratio is not surprising. It's a result of a YEAR headstart and less because it has better games, etc.

If you have 10 million consoles sold and you have a game library of 500 games, it's only common sense that you will end up with a higher ratio than if you have 10 million consoles sold and a game library of 50 games. The higher the amount of games available compared to the amount of consoles sold, the higher the attach rate will be.

Now, i'm not saying that the 360 doesn't have good games, because that's simply not true. It has simply the best game library out of all the consoles as of this moment. But the large difference in attach rate is less about the quality of the games (or even that hardcore gamers buy more games) and more because of the greater amount of games available for the xbox360 due to a year headstart.

Basically, xbox360 owners had more time than the other console owners to buy software titles and a greater selection of titles. Hence, the large difference in the attach rate.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 6:29PM (Unverified) said

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plus, the 360 actually has good games worth playing
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 6:39PM SpartacusMagnus said

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No YOU suck at statistics. Time does NOT increase a RATIO. Time increases TOTALS. A RATIO is an average sum and is independent of TOTAL sales.

I'VE SAID THIS FOUR TIMES NOW.

Historically attach ratios DECREASE the longer a console is on the market, not the opposite as you mistakenly claim.

If a console with a userbase of 10 million has 50 games and an attach rate of 3.5, that means the AVERAGE owner of that console bought over 3 games. The only way it could be CAPPED at 3 is if there were only 3 games on the market. Since 50 is more than 3.5, it is ILLOGICAL to think that the total number of games available stunted the attach rate ratio. When the 360 launched with ONLY 15 games, it had an attach rate of around 5. Once the library reaches a certain size (probably around 50 games or so) the available library QUANTITY is not a factor, however QUALITY may still be.

The real factor is each demographic's BUYING HABITS. Xbox owners have historically been hardcore gamers who buy lots of GAMES. The Xbox had the highest attach rate last gen even though it had FAR less games in its total library than the PS2. The PS2 had also BEEN OUT LONGER, yet had a LOWER attach rate than the Xbox.

Check the actuall statistics and industry history before you tell someone their statistic skills suck.

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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 8:40PM (Unverified) said

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Not quite, but close. Time does allow certain factors to mature, such as quantity of quality games. Basically, it allows normal statistical variance to stabilize. In the case of Wii and PS3, because they don't have a good amount of games in their first year, the expected upper limit for the attachment ratio is also concievably lower.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 3:57PM (Unverified) said

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Well, the 2 things I learned from this post...

1. All those lists useed to counter the "No games on PS3" argument don't mean shit, cause no one's buying all those available games.

2. At least a couple members of the SDF haven't leapt off a bridge over the MGS delay

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 4:10PM Vidikron said

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The same would then be true of all the Wii lists around, right? Actually, if you look at both Wii and PS3 lists that people like to throw around they both usually contains lots of upcoming games.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 4:25PM (Unverified) said

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Yeah, but there isn't a big no games for wii argument, most times the fanboys throw around waggle isn't innovation about the wii.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 4:09PM Batzarro The worlds WOrst Detect said

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Rubang: Games you found in the street or stole from your friends are not counted in a sales chart. Only games SOLD. That's because stores, like, keep track of stuff they sell, not of how much you play. Playtime is pretty much only important to companies in MMO's where you pay.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 9:35PM (Unverified) said

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True. But any time I find a game in the street I call NPD and tell them about it.


I just think they should count bundles. It's the only way they can get people to buy Motorstorm!
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 5:12PM zsavior said

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Wondering do we also start pointing out the Xbox360 attachment rate for games in other regions also? Or is this just to point out the WII and PS3 problems here?

Not trying to start anything I am just wondering where the story was going since at the end there were links to a story about developers scared to make games for the WII, and developers being begged to stay on the PS3. Wouldn't the same be said for Japanese developers and the Xbox360? But what are the ratio of games on the Xbox360 that do well that are japanese games, and not American shooters?

SO are those developers right now happy with the Xbox360? I mean since we are going to throw out attachment rates and what type of games sells and which games sales deserve to be counted, and companies fears.

If I am Capcom or Square, blue Dragon sales don't make me happy compared to halo and Orange box. Blue dragon in all between America and Japan sold 420k yet Resident evil 4 WII has shipped 1million if I am not mistaken. So really lets talk worries and developers, and who is saying what. Resident evil 4 was just a port from the Gamecube and the PS2 and was able to hit 1million Blue Dragon an original game that supposed to be the big seller for the Xbox360 did 420k.

But I guess all the cool kids have to attack the PS3 and Wii because xbox360 is just for "hardcore gamers" hmm yes. Attachment rates are all well and good when they are in your favor but it is a double edged sword.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 5:14PM Slaziman said

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But RE4 is a good game and Blue Dragon isn't. Duh.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 5:16PM (Unverified) said

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Nintendo's marketing for software basically sucks. Take two games from this month(this period of one month anyway), Batallion Wars II and Fire Emblem. Both of these are some pretty good games. BWii even has online play. They've gotten zero marketing from Nintendo. Metroid Prime 3 got an atrocious lack of marketing.

This extends to third parties with some great games, like Capcom's Zack and Wiki getting an extremely limited printing and no marketing whatsoever.

I would have to say this though. Capcom is top dog on every system they are on right now. They are just putting out astounding game after astounding game.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 5:56PM (Unverified) said

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I am beyond disappointed by the developers not retooling Fire Emblem to a point and click interface. I'm not going to bother with it for that reason.

I'm pretty stoked over the Medal of Honor game though, and I generally abhor WW2 shooters. Its not really getting very much attention or marketing either at this point :|
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 5:50PM (Unverified) said

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Also, don't forget that the PS3 numbers are skewed by the "I juat want a cheap blu-ray player" group, while the Wii numbers are (sorta) skewed by the age-retirement-plan group. Of cause both does mean that the number of game buyers are naturally lower, but it also shows the 360 to be the pure gamer (as opposed to gaming) console.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 6:55PM (Unverified) said

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The point is exit stencil, do they owe us a living?

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 7:35PM (Unverified) said

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someone else said it earlier, but the 360 had an attach rate of about 4 its first year, and now its attach rate is 6.6. So people bought about 4 360 games its first year, and in its 2nd year they bought about 9 or 10 additional games. Way better than ps3/wii all the way

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 10:59PM Geist said

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Much better than the PS3, yeah, but I don't expect the attach rate average for the Wii to be high, considering the percentage (however high) of people that buy it that are dubbed 'casual'. I mean, I have 6 Wii games right now, and I have yet to buy titles like Zak and Wiki, Mario, etc.

PS3, though, is looking sketchy.
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Posted: Oct 31st 2007 8:22PM (Unverified) said

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a year headstart should have a HUGE effect on attach rate. Look at it from a business point of view. People have a set yearly income and they can only spend x amount of dollars on video games a year. So say I have $200 to spend on games a year, I'll only buy about 3 new games. But if you spread this over 2 years, now you have $400 to spend on games and you can now buy 6 games. To further prove my point... Say you are someone who plans on having 2 or even all three of the 'next gen' console. Obviously in the year that the 360 came out, a large percentage of your earnings go exclusively to buying games for that system. After a year, say when you bought a PS3 or Wii to go with your 360, your income would then be divided amongst 2 or even 3 consoles, thereby reducing the number of games you buy for Wii/PS3 quite drastically. Anyways, that's just my 2 cents.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 9:07PM kftgr said

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From Jan 2007 articles at Next-Gen.biz and GamaSutra (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4487&Itemid=2 and http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12375)

360's North American stats at the end of 2006 was 4.5M consoles having an attach rate of 5.3. That means over the past 9 months 21M of games were sold, averaging 3.1 games for each of the 6.8M consoles.

If the trend continues and the 6.8M buy 2 more games to make that 5 per year, then the attach rate would jump to 8.5!

Of course, there will be new consoles sold from Oct to Dec, and it's unreasonable to think that they would buy 8.5 games. But say that 1.2M get sold during the holidays (a conservative guess), and just 1 game was bought for each system, then the attach rate would be around 7.4.

Posted: Oct 31st 2007 11:12PM SpartacusMagnus said

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Thanks for that info. I think that now proves what I've been saying: The 360 simply has a higher attach rate than the other consoles regardless of "omg, it's been out an extra year, not fair!" arguement.
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Posted: Nov 1st 2007 8:48AM (Unverified) said

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Spartacus, you can't count that 5.3 attach rate until the Wii and PS3 make it through their first holiday season where the consoles have been widely available. Not only are a ton of games coming out in the next 2 months, but it's the gift giving season, so I think we'll see the attach rates jump over the next two months.

Also, the assertion that attach rates don't rise over time is ridiculous. How many games did you have after 2 months of having the XBox? How many did you have after 12 months? 24 months? I'm guessing each number is higher than the last. Obviously, most people have some kind of monthly budget, even if it's not spelled out in Quicken, and can only afford to purchase games slowly over time. So _as time goes by_, *they buy more games*.

Here's some math for ya - assume for a moment that xbox owners buy one game every 2 months. Assume they sell 300,000 consoles per month (just pulling that number out of my ass for ease of math's sake), with a starting userbase of 2 million that got the xbox in the first couple months. Assume everyone who buys a console also buys exactly one game.

At the 1 year mark, the 2 million that got the console at launch will have 7 games each. The 600,000 people who bought it in months 1 and 2 will have 6 games, 600k in months 3 & 4 have 5 games, 600k 5&6 have 4, 7&8 have 3, 9&10 have 2, and 11&12 have just the one.

Now add that up, and you have 5.6 million owners with an average of 4.75 games. Extend the same numbers over another 12 months and the average rises to 7.9. (these numbers generated from excel).

Now, obviously the people who buy the console in the first 6 months are probably the hardcore fans who will buy more games, but I think after that, the average buyer is likely to be just that - average. So while there may well be a dip as the average buyers start outweighing the smaller number of hardcore users... the ratio should rise over time, just because the average age of each console rises over time and people tend to buy games over time because they have more money, more good-looking games are out, older games have gone down in price, and they've gotten bored with the games they have.
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Posted: Nov 1st 2007 5:51AM BurntMeatloaf said

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So Nintendo is basically making billions off hardware profits alone.

Wow. They don't even have to make games anymore!

Posted: Nov 1st 2007 9:39AM Dashx747 said

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Hey, just for the mathematical discussion, here is how attach rates change over time:

Attach rate = x/y (x is games, y is consoles).

So, the difference in % of the growth rate of x and y will affect the rate. Meaning: if games sales increases more than consoles, the rate goes up, and the inverse is also true.

Quick example (in millions):
Today rate for Game Gear (it's made up, don't cry fanboys): 20/5=4
Next year(y grows faster):40/8=5
next year(x grows faster):38/10=3.8

So, all cases people are talking about can be true, depending on the circunstances. The attach rate for any one of the consoles can change up or down. But the thing is it normally goes up, because eventually consoles sales goes down(go check NPD), while games keep high longer. PS2 and GBA are still selling games, but way less consoles, so their attach rate is still going up (well, I believe it is, correct me if I'm wrong). Who will win in the end?Depends, but I don't really care about that. Just want good games.

Wow, I guess I learnt something in college after all. Still, should have made game school instead of business (I could be making games instead of being stuck at a office, discussing attach rates hidden from my boss)

Posted: Nov 1st 2007 12:17PM (Unverified) said

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If you are gonna mention the Wii Play factor, you should surely mention the Wii Sports pack-in factor.

Everyone who bought a PS3 or 360 HAD TO buy at least one game. People buying the Wii didn't have to buy one, they got one thrown in.

That would surely more than counteract any effects of Wii Play.

(imagine if nintendo had packing in Wii Play and sold Wii Sports as an extra. They'd have an attach ratio of over 4. )

Not that i really care either way..

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