Let this be a lesson to all the video game publishers out there: If you want your games to sell like hotcakes this holiday season, you best slap a three on the title. Check out EEDAR's full report (PDF) for the rest of E3's expected mega-successes.
EEDAR picks its most promising retail performers from E3 2011
by Griffin McElroy 
on Jun 20th 2011 9:00PM
30
Let this be a lesson to all the video game publishers out there: If you want your games to sell like hotcakes this holiday season, you best slap a three on the title. Check out EEDAR's full report (PDF) for the rest of E3's expected mega-successes.
Reader Comments (30)
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:06PM Faceless Troll said
Blockbusters = stock prices go up. Call options = Thanks for the $$$ Activision!
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:28PM Faceless Troll said
@Vcize It doesn't have to go up that much. Just enough to make me a profit.
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Posted: Jun 20th 2011 10:57PM Aerothorn said
@Faceless Troll
That's...not really true. Expected profits are factored into stock valuation. Everyone EXPECTS Modern Warfare 3 to be huge, so unless it somehow exceeds even its enormous expectations (and it can't, really) it won't cause stock to go up; and if it fails, it WILL cause stock to go down.
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That's...not really true. Expected profits are factored into stock valuation. Everyone EXPECTS Modern Warfare 3 to be huge, so unless it somehow exceeds even its enormous expectations (and it can't, really) it won't cause stock to go up; and if it fails, it WILL cause stock to go down.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 11:08PM Faceless Troll said
@Aerothorn Doesn't even have to be Activision. Pretty much any game company that's publicly traded. Incidentally, analysts always give you a conservative estimate. That way when it outperforms their estimate people will assume it's doing great.
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Posted: Jun 22nd 2011 4:52AM Charades said
@Aerothorn
Activision's stock never goes up, it always sits around 12 - 13 dollars. I purchased their stock at 10 dollars a couple years back, expecting it skyrocket with the sales of MW2 and BLOPs, especially when they broke tons of sales numbers, but it never budged.
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Activision's stock never goes up, it always sits around 12 - 13 dollars. I purchased their stock at 10 dollars a couple years back, expecting it skyrocket with the sales of MW2 and BLOPs, especially when they broke tons of sales numbers, but it never budged.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:06PM Vcize said
Won't shock and surprise us? As much as I think many of us expect ME3 to be the BEST game from that list, I don't think anyone expects it to actually outsell MW3, BF3, or Assassin's Creed.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:14PM The Cole Train said
I laughed at the fact Halo 4 got ranked 9 over games that were actually on the show floor/demoed form when Halo just got a CG teaser.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:14PM v1rtul said
MW3 is ranked BELOW skyrim and mass effect??? are u kidding me??
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:26PM DV8ing1 said
@v1rtul
I think its about time people started getting bored of the now stale cod franchise. The games are great don't get me wrong but very little innovation with a 60 dollar price tag every year is getting a tad hard to swallow. I'm sure it will still sell like hotcakes but I'm also fairly sure it won't have nearly the sales of the previous iterations.
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I think its about time people started getting bored of the now stale cod franchise. The games are great don't get me wrong but very little innovation with a 60 dollar price tag every year is getting a tad hard to swallow. I'm sure it will still sell like hotcakes but I'm also fairly sure it won't have nearly the sales of the previous iterations.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:56PM eatmyasia said
@DV8ing1
I think you may be underestimating the size of the market that buys only a COD/MW game every year, maybe with a few sports game thrown in for good measure. For some people, an annual fee of $60 just to keep up with the massive migration of players to the newest title (regardless of how innovative it may or may not be) is justifiable, and I doubt things will be any different this time around.
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I think you may be underestimating the size of the market that buys only a COD/MW game every year, maybe with a few sports game thrown in for good measure. For some people, an annual fee of $60 just to keep up with the massive migration of players to the newest title (regardless of how innovative it may or may not be) is justifiable, and I doubt things will be any different this time around.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 10:05PM Helghast102 said
@DV8ing1
You'd THINK that, but look at Black Ops and all of the pre-release comments of "MW2 sucked im never buying CoD again"
Unfortunately, the cycle will continue.
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You'd THINK that, but look at Black Ops and all of the pre-release comments of "MW2 sucked im never buying CoD again"
Unfortunately, the cycle will continue.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:31PM Yuglyoshi said
Uh, Modern Warfare is obviously going to sell the most...
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:35PM KungFuChaosNinja said
Yep, I'll buy Mass Effect 3 for PC, Xbox 360 and PS3.
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 9:43PM InDurdenWeTrust said
Slightly off topic but I'm so worried Twisted Metal is going to bomb and possibly put the final nail in the car combat genre. I hope to the gods I'm dead wrong!
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 10:49PM Mustang Fanboy said
Didn't Uncharted 2 sold more than ME2? I expect U3 to outsell ME3
Posted: Jun 20th 2011 10:57PM Jenks said
Infamous 2 is higher on the list than Gears 3.
This is obviously legit.
This is obviously legit.
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 12:17AM The Boss said
Obvious top 5 is obvious.
Now that I got that out the way, I disagree with a few things. I think Resistance will sell more than 18th. Duke won't sell as many as they think it will since it got terrible reviews. Most people will probably rent it, I know I'm considering that. I also think Gears will be higher & Rage will be maybe like 2 or 3 spots higher. Also, as much as I would love for it to happen, I don't think Battlefield will outsell Cock A Duty. I also wish that Assassin's Creed wasn't there at all, but you can't always get, what you want.
Now that I got that out the way, I disagree with a few things. I think Resistance will sell more than 18th. Duke won't sell as many as they think it will since it got terrible reviews. Most people will probably rent it, I know I'm considering that. I also think Gears will be higher & Rage will be maybe like 2 or 3 spots higher. Also, as much as I would love for it to happen, I don't think Battlefield will outsell Cock A Duty. I also wish that Assassin's Creed wasn't there at all, but you can't always get, what you want.
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 12:59AM Fire Walk With Me said
@The Boss as long as Battlefield takes away market share, and I am now convinced it will, all will be well.
I dont want Battlefield to outsell COD. I dont like playing with the majority of those people. Although if every COD player went BF then it would be bush wookie madness and pretty funny/easy.
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I dont want Battlefield to outsell COD. I dont like playing with the majority of those people. Although if every COD player went BF then it would be bush wookie madness and pretty funny/easy.
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 12:31AM Jennacide said
I find it odd they label ME3 as the biggest seller of 2011, since it's not coming out in 2011.
And as much as it pains me to say it, MW3 will likely kick everything's ass, with Gears 3, Skyrim, and Battlefield 3 doing well. (Though personally I'd like to see Battlefield 3 do exceptional)
And as much as it pains me to say it, MW3 will likely kick everything's ass, with Gears 3, Skyrim, and Battlefield 3 doing well. (Though personally I'd like to see Battlefield 3 do exceptional)
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 8:07AM Fire Walk With Me said
@Jennacide they didnt label it as the biggest seller.
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Posted: Jun 21st 2011 12:48AM ticklefist said
Arkham City got dropped to 7th because people watched the videos on youtube instead of gametrailers.
You can't use such a small sample size and call it "research."
You can't use such a small sample size and call it "research."
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 5:19AM radioactivez0r said
@Jennacide I noticed that too, and then I read the report. It doesn't actually say "biggest expected sellers of 2011", merely what they expect will sell the most of the games shown at E3. It seems Joystiq inferred their own conclusion.
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 8:06AM Fire Walk With Me said
@radioactivez0r I dont think Joystiq read the report at all. Certainly not page 3 which explained the report. For example they expect ME3 to sell 20% above the previous title...which wouldnt put it anywhere near MW3. MW3 they said would be number 1 in sales.
Most of the commenters on this site seem like the typical people who are swayed by anything they read as well. No one looked at the report they just took a bloggers word for it. Sad world. Great time to own a piece of media!
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Most of the commenters on this site seem like the typical people who are swayed by anything they read as well. No one looked at the report they just took a bloggers word for it. Sad world. Great time to own a piece of media!
Posted: Jun 21st 2011 3:22PM Crayola Q Pants ESQ said
Does EEDAR get money to make these predictions? Because I'm pretty sure Joe Homeless Guy could have pegged those franchises as making buku bucks for the price of a sandwich
