5 reasons why Sony won't lose the next-gen console war

#23:
"and guess what economy is doing pretty good so don't expect that to bring it down ."

Actually, the economy is basically crap. The macro indicators show a great economy (and indeed, the upper 10% are doing pretty good), but for the rest of us out there in the middle class and below...'eh...not so good.
That's reality and the problem with the way people report on the economy. Really, though, it's just the failure of trickle down economics at work. Why the hell we're dumb enough to keep voting for it is beyond me...

Anyway...
I don't agree with the article's assessment at all. I've admittedly seen increased awareness ofthe PS3 in recent weeks...but a lot of the time it's followed by, "I'm gonna sell it on Ebay!" That's just my personal experience, though, for whatever little it's worth.

I'm of the mind that the video game market is in for another crash soon. Maybe not a fullscale collapse like we saw in the mid-80's, but definitely a crash.
And frankly, Nintendo once again looks to be in the position to conquer once Sony and MS over do it on sports, FPS and racing games.
A lot of people, myself included to a large extent, have fallen away from video games because the're just...blah. Same sh!t, different pile all the time. I don't see Sony or Microsoft taking steps to remedy that.

Wow, #47, you're an idiot. Look at your post again and tell me that those same situations don't apply to Sony right now, currently losin 94% of its profit and likened to lose more

I want to point a small thing out....this brand loyalty is only going to carry you so far. Since the PS2's debut Sony has take some serious PR hits. Complaints about customer service. Falling behind on the LCD/Plasma tv innovation. Battery Recall. Blu-Ray setbacks. Vaio's and PSP's not selling as well as forecast. UMD's a failure.
I have 4 buddies that have PS2. One buddy is on his third and two are on disk read errors. But this is seldom talked about in circles and that is the PS2 did suffer from hardware failures.
Don't get me wrong...I play SOCOM religiously and like the PS2...but the online play is something that is not to brag about. It is ok, but between the cheaters, glitchers and lag... the experience is not all that overwhelming.
I am going to wait until the dust settles and see what the online play of the PS3 brings. That is what is going to sell me....

ViEt pRiDe = aZn_1080p Duh!

The battle will be closer like SNES vs Genesis. Either one can be the winner at this point. 360 already got 6mil units out there. This figure is not going to stand still while the competitors catch up. Sony however got the stronger brand awareness. But that alone will not help look what happened to nintendo. Sony will have to deliver in more ways than one.

It's funny, they didn't even mention the Wii. I wonder why the PS3 will win if the Wii is added into that equation retarded reasons why the PS3 would win. Seriously, where's the Wii in all this?

"No console that was technologically superior ever won a console war". Really? I seem to remember SNES pulling out the win in the end of that war and I remember the Playstation being superior in all the important categories over the Saturn and N64 (which might as well have used solid colors instead of bitmaps for it's textures). So that argument doesn't hold water.

As for the comment that Sony will fail the third time around just like Nintendo did with the N64, that's unfounded. The N64 still used cartridges when everyone else was using CD's. Developers HATE putting their games on cartridges. They have to submit their game to the console maker a month early to have them fabricated in Japan and then could get stuck with millions and millions of dollars of unsold cartridges in their warehouses. Discs on the other hand cost pennies to stamp. Lack of developer support is what doomed the N64, and there will be no such problem for the PS3.

all i have to say...is i'll stick w/ the DS and the Wii...there's no way i'll pay 5-600 dollars for a system, and then have to go pay w/e for a game...no thnx, i'll take my business elsewhere...honestly...i think its ridiculous. but..thats my personal opinion....^_^

how you can say psx was technically superior to the n64, i havent a clue.

"Sony will wipe the floor again with ms who will lose so much money that investors will shut xbox down."

lol right.. just like the Xbox right? Come back to reality chief, MS aint goin no where.

Here we go again. Does anyone care to place a BET on the winner of this generation of consoles? True indeed, we the consumers are all "winners" if you will, but we have all allied ourselves with a particular brand. So, with that said, I'm with Sony all the way. I bought an XBox360 for oblivion and I sold my system b/c I just wasn't playing the darn thing. I will be standing out in the cold on Nov. 16th to get a PS3. period. I really wish everyone would stop bashing the other camp. Me? I'm confidently assured/a little smug that my system of choice will be the system that delivers the MOST FUN. The best experience. And quite frankly, honestly, truthfully...the black box just plain old LOOKS better. Asthetically, there is NO comparison, unless u like off white and clanky buttons underneath a new shiny HDTV or anything electronic for that matter....So back to my original thought...anyone care to BET/place your money where your mouth is on who will "win" the console war? We can call a console "futures" market if you will, to be legal. LOL. Stop all the ranting and raving and just enjoy your perspective systems. I know I will.

Oh and one more thing that is urking the hell out of me: stop with all this PS3 is too expensive garbage, b/c, I am willing to bet 8/10 of those people who say it is too expensive are really just 1)Sony haters and 2)really just computer nerds that already have $500 VIDEO CARDS in their damn PCs lol...is that you?

Oh no offense to the Computer Nerds, I have a Computer Engineering degree from a top 5 (engineering) school...lol

JodyAnthony's the man! I'd vote for him.

This is really premature to make assumptions that Sony will win on all 5 points that the author has made. Well, premature, and also false. Brand name never saved any product from failure, and neither does a whole new media format that you're forcing an industry to conform to (and consumers to buy).

Also, Sony's online promises have always left a lot to be desired, since they were all talk during the PS2 days. Anyone remember the old PS2 trailers after E3 before launch, where we thought we could message people while listening to MP3s off of our Sony Memory Stick, and email our buddy on his cel phone to tell him we need his help on FFXI?! Yeah, it went on and on, and it was pretty much all lies. So forgive me if I don't put much stock in Sony's version of Live.

I think the author is right about Japan though. They love them some Playstation. Also, if I may use a sports analogy here, it's a lot like backing the former champions to go to the playoffs in the next season. But yeah, that's the only market that is 100% definite to keep Playstation alive.

"I seem to remember SNES pulling out the win"

3do had more under the hood. it was the first 32-bit console.

"I remember the Playstation being superior in all the important categories over the Saturn and N64"

the n64 was the first 64-bit console. the saturn had dual 32-bit processors.

"Developers HATE putting their games on cartridges."

yeah. but they don't hate putting them on dvds and they're only using half the space. maybe if every game was maxing them out like the cartridge days, i'd buy it.

"Discs on the other hand cost pennies to stamp"

yeah. dvds do. blu-ray discs do not.

m3mnoch.

"And quite frankly, honestly, truthfully...the black box just plain old LOOKS better. Asthetically, there is NO comparison,"

Apparently you aren't familiar with the George Foreman Grills.. They can give the PS3 a run for it's money in the looks department.. and that's not a compliment.

I have faith in Nintendo coming out strong. I don't think it will be the market leader currently, though. but that might change. who am I to know? There is a ton of positive buzz around Nintendo currently, so lets hope that it works out for them in the end. Do I want them to 'win'? You better believe it. They may be a cold heartless corporation just like microsoft or sony, but they give me Zelda, damnit. Thats all I care about.

All I know is come November 19th I am going to be one happy gamer.

So, what determine a winner. Or better yet, what determine a loser. The company's that sell 10 million consoles. I'm thinking I will need about $700 and some change if I want the PS3(console, game, taxes). Might not be available until sometimes next year. And, if they are still making games for his big brother(PS2), I don't see the PS3 taking the top spot this time around. And, that part about investors shuting down XBOX, Bill Gates is the investor.

and as for the "And quite frankly, honestly, truthfully...the black box just plain old LOOKS better. Asthetically, there is NO comparison" comment, personally when it comes to looks, I think Wii has it in the bag. So simple and clean, without trying to look like a sports car. Wii is something that will actually fit in my entertainment center.

But that's just my opinion. I also think the dslite looks better than the psp though.

"Oh no offense to the Computer Nerds, I have a Computer Engineering degree from a top 5 (engineering) school...lol"

really? which school? does that make you feel important? is that something to gloat over? what does it have to do with your business predictions? did you know the people who founded youtube or google or even bill gates or steven spielberg don't have college degrees? (honorary ones don't count)

do you know why?

it's because some people don't need a little piece of paper to tell them they're smart. any monkey can get a college degree. it's what you do in real life that counts. in other words, people like them hire people like you. where does that put you in the chain?

tho -- since you're so into it, i bet i can find a top 5 baking school grad who'll gladly bake you a nice, warm cookie to go with your diploma. i may even pat you gently on the head and whisper "good job" into your ear just to make you feel better about yourself.

m3mnoch.

ANYONE ACTUALLY CARE TO DO A GAME TO GAME COMPARISON?
Please, this is funny. No really lets start a spreadsheet of exclusive games...e.g.
Gears of War Resistance
Halo 3 MGS4 + VF 5 (yeah it PS3 will need 2 AAA titles to equal the Halo beast, honestly)
Dead Rising DMC4
Project Gotham AND any other xbox racer GT4 (next gen. and yes Gran Turismo is a beast of a franchise)
Mass Effect, Bioshock, Alan Wake, whatever, Naughty Dog next gen. God of War 3 (yes it will be awesome and exclusive)
... FFXIII
... Motorstorm
... Tekken 6 (DOA maybe)
... Lair,
yeah Xbox360 WON'T be able to keep up with the SONY exclusives, period guys and girls...anyone care to agment this list?
plus the entire back cataloge of PS1 and PS2 games? Are you really serious? The PS3 will win b/c of one thing alone : its GAME content. once again, anyone care to BET on this? (see post #56)

@53 vaylen:

You forgot about the Neo-Geo during the 16-bit generation, which like or not, was far more powerful than the SNES.

And if developers hate using cartridges so much, then how come they're flocking to the DS cartridges instead of the PSP? How many Square-Enix games are on the PSP vs the DS?

65, m3mnoch..

my god, i may not agree with your viewpoints on games always, but that was by far the best post to ever be on joystiq.

champe, how bout factoring in Wii exclusives?

champe. you KNOW i'll take you up on it. i've stated as much in the forums before.

m3mnoch.

to #5 JodyAnthony

Actually, in my opinion, consumers are losing because of this competition, instead of gaining. Here are my reasons.

a) Seperation of standards

Remember the Netscape/Internet Explorer problem? When two companies (or more) have competiting products, they'll tend to make themselves different. Whether it's good or bad, is a different matter, but in my opinion, it's currently heading towards "bad". Different online implementations, different online expectations, different hardware configurations.. In the end, people have to buy more than one console to get everything. This doesn't happen with computers, and is markedly reduced with browsers as well.

b) Bloatware

Also because of the need for seperation, occasionally stuff that aren't really important are added in. Some would argue that the inclusion of tilt in the Sixaxis and the inclusion of BluRay are examples of such occurances. Whether or not they are in the end is incertain, but in the case of BluRay, many people seems to agree.

c) Power War

Usually competition leads to a price war. Occasionally, it leads to a power war instead, like the Cold War. In this case, it's obvious that something similar is happening with XBox 360 and PS3, which are sacrificing general affordability for even more power. Just because I can get an alienware (or Dell gaming) laptop for a couple thousand doesn't mean I should, especially when a laptop suffice for my general gaming needs.

d) Exclusitivity, forced purchase

Because of the need to be unique, every console has exclusives. This means that in order to play everything, I MUST get all three consoles. Unlike a PC, which as long as I have a good enough computer and graphics card, irregardless of manufacturer, I will still be able to play any game on the PC market.

e) Risk-adverse

Sometimes competition creates more interesting products. Sometimes it just causes parties to play cautious. When everyone is looking out for their bottom line, they cannot take risks that might give them a weekness that others can strike. Because of this, certain risks may never be taken, like investing in an "unknown" director for a field he's new to, even it he's top-of-the-line for a directly related field.

f) Questionable practices

Because the competition is fierce, companies must make use of any advantage they can manage to obtain, even if some are questionable, such as the Lik Sang situation.

Conclusion: competition is not always good. Sometimes it may end up absolutely self-destructive.

@ Chucky\\\'s Cat
That's me. I used to adore the PS3, than Sony dropped the bomb, the price. Now I am reduced to playing it at Best Buys and Circuit Cities (when they get it), but I've realized there isn't that much I really want to play, and now I'm questioning why I liked it in the first place.

Psaakyrn, you make really good points, but I would still rather have competition than a monopoly.

Hey # 65,
sorry to get your panties all ruffled (maybe u should switch to thongs), I honestly didn't mean to gloat, or anything like that, I was simply covering my computer nerd statement, b/c I am one too, lol. Lets try to keep this post about games (see #67), sorry if I offended you, but you obviously seem to have a low self esteem. And by the way, you don't know anything about me or how much $$ I make, and yes I do own my own business for that matter...so no, saying that doesn't make me feel important, but it obviously offended you, therefore, I am humbly sorry. But you gotta get some self-esteem man, seriously, I mean you didn't even comment on anything that this post is talking about. lol
GO SONY.

Yes, a competition is usually good, but in this case, console gamers are losing out on what PC gamers have always been enjoying, like hardware non-exclusivity. PC games in general is getting cheaper (even if I have to use dodgy mathematics involving the hordes of free flash games and indy games) unlike console gaming, which seems to get more expensive as time goes by.

"All in all, I think that having different console leaders every so often can only help the industry. It would be nice to have everyone at even levels, but that may never happen again"

If the Xbox was funded by someone other than Microsoft i would totally agree with this statement. But the fact of the matter is Microsoft,i.e Bill Gates, just wants to try and 'strongarm' their way into the game industry. Bill Gates himself said he would just 'throw' money at the system until it sold. I don't respect that at all. i would rather have Ken Kuturagi and his 'arrogance' at the number one spot than Bill Gates. Bill will just monopolize the market. Dont be fooled by MS. It will be windows all over again but with our beloved consoles...

to #67 champe

XBLA. Sony will not be able to keep up with XBLA once Microsoft gets that off the ground.

"you gotta get some self-esteem man"

that's gotta be one of the funniest things i've ever heard. i've been called a lot of things -- arrogant. narcissistic. vain. opinionated. lots of things that have to do with my absolutist mantra that "i'm always right. period." never self-esteem.

... well damn. okay. you win. i'll go get a shovel and see if i can dig up some pride somewhere....

back to the topic at hand, tho. i'll take your bet. tho, as far as betting in the joystiq forums, i'm 3 for 3. (ps3 price. wii price. wii pre-orders selling out.) granted, the wii pre-order one was a no-brainer, but, i don't know of many other people on the planet that posted an ass-hanging-out-absolute prediction on the ps3 like i did -- and got it right.

http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/12/the-playstation-3-price/
(note the date on that.)

so. yeah. i'll take your bet, sir. name some terms.

m3mnoch.

All Microsoft has to do to win this generation is take more marketshare away from Sony. The Xbox had 15%. The 360 will have 30-35%. That is a BIG win for Microsoft and a big marketshare loss for Sony. The 360 does not need to sell more units than the PS3 to win this generation.

Here's a simple way of determining who wins and who loses: whoever brings out their next system first is the big loser. Runner up and winner is determined by market share.

- MS will bring out XBOX3 (with an integrated BD drive) first; they are the big losers.
- There are only so many Nintendo fanbois who will buy Wiis; so, they are a respectable runner up.
- PS3 wins and continues to sell well into 2016

So, there you have it. Bookmark this page, its how its gonna happen.

I agree. Sony will probably sell more units overall while losing the huge advantage they had last generation. Add in the fact that they don't plan on releasing a new console in 4 years when the other two companies do, and it's more difficult to measure.

I've got a 360, a pre-ordered Wii, and I'll save up for a PS3 sometime in the first half of next year. I think all three systems are going to be great, and I'm looking forward to great titles on all of them. Wii with the 1st party franchises and novelty games, 360 for cross-platform games (I like achievements), and PS3 for exclusives like MGS, FFXIII, and Silent Hill if they make it exclusive. While the console war is kind of fun to follow, I'm far more interested in what developers actually do with the hardware. I'm even more interested in what they do with gameplay and story. Graphics are like ice cream on a slice of perfect pie.

this is funny, first of all i'm not a fanboy... i don't like microsoft because they want to rule the world (xbox, zune, windows, etc)... i don't like sony because they are overatted and expensive... i don't like nintendo because they made a bad choice of abandoning sony's cd addon for the snes (look what happen to them for screwing sony)...
anyways... the reason i buy a console is the game... i want to play final fantasy and metal gears and all the traditional rpg, so i buy ps2... i want to play zelda and resident evil (was an exclusive, though still for re0 and re1 remake)... so i buy a gamecube... i'm not a fan of fps or shooter (isn't pc fps and shooter better???), guess what, i don't want an xbox... better systems, to me, doesn't sale consoles, but games does... this next gen stuff... the way it looks, i will be buying a ps3 and wii, why??? because of the games... i'm not a fanboy of a system, but a fanboy of games...

Heres whats gonna happen. BluRay fails, Microsoft drops the price of the 360. Sony goes bankrupt. Playstation brand dies with PS3. Apple enters console gaming next generation.

Place your bets.

74. Yes, with the PS3's price point, it's going to have to compete with PCs.

I'm a console gamer and I have been since I put my Amiga to rest. To me, the PS3 feels more like a media-center PC than a game console! Nintendo seems to be the only company still producing a pure, traditional game console. (The controller may be new, but everything else - the price, size, simplicity, arcade-style of games, multi-player in the same room, etc. - is traditional.)

"- MS will bring out XBOX3 (with an integrated BD drive) first; they are the big losers.
- There are only so many Nintendo fanbois who will buy Wiis; so, they are a respectable runner up.
- PS3 wins and continues to sell well into 2016"

Hahahaha.
1) Sure, that little theory was all well and good with Sega (had they focused on improving the Saturn instead of rushing it out five months early, would we be talking about the DC2 today?), but you're ignoring the fact that MS can afford to make such moves--even use it to their advantage, like single-industry Sega never could.

2) Like it or not, the Wii is the first console in the history of the world to make it onto Toys R Us' hot list--and Toys R Us knows a thing or two about what sells. Less than 10% of their products account for over 50% of their sales, and before the holiday season even hits, they know exactly which products fall into that 10%, without fail. I'm not saying that translates into Wii FTW, but to say that the Wii appeals to only us stubborn Nintendo (also Capcom?) fanbase like the GCN did is... well... just ignorant Sony fanboyism.

3) The U in UMD stands for Universal, but we can't write on the damned things--yet you trust them when they boast that the life of the PS3 will be ten years?

By the time the console wars are over with this generation, I don't think Sony will be victorious at all...although they might. There are many factors to consider. Right now the PS3 is a crazy expensive console, and even the Playstation brand name won't get every current PS2 owner to plunk down that hefty chunk of change right out the gate. Also, right now there aren't that many must have games coming down the pipeline. Everyone seems to be waiting for Metal Gear Solid 4, and that won't be coming for a while. Once the AAA games start to pour in more steadily I expect the PS3's market share to grow, but I don't really expect it to explode until the price comes waaaaay down...and that might be 2 and a half years from now or so. And by that time I'm positive Wii and Xbox 360 will have some pretty substantial leads.

Of course, in Japan I expect it to be somewhat tighter since it's really between Sony and Nintendo over there. In the states, however, it could be anyones game.

I have no doubts the PS3 will do well, it has lost lots of ground, and there is no doubt about that either, Sony will need to do a heck of a lot with the PS4 to bring back those whom it lost. But with the number of ppl I've seen waiting and willing to buy PS3, I don't think it can fail, although, it will be tagging behind for a while due to the crap launch numbers compared to Wii and the 360 already out.

Even if 360 is out before the PS3, it doesn't nessasrily mean it is the ideal choice for everyone, and it already seems blu-ray is gaining some awareness, my auntie and mum want to buy a blu-ray player, and for once, noone in our family has mentioned anything to them :S They aren't the only ones I've seen.

Lets just hope something good comes out of this for Sony.

>80. Here's a simple way of determining who wins and who loses: whoever brings out their next system first is the big loser. <
Yep. Just like the PS2.

Oh, wait.

>85. don't like nintendo because they made a bad choice of abandoning sony's cd addon for the snes (look what happen to them for screwing sony)...<
Sony wanted complete creative control for any games on their "add-on". Who screwed who, exactly?

Also, for the love of sanity, Ellipsis=!period.

I too have been thinking this out for the last few years. Nintendo had 10, Sony had 10, and now we go into Phase 5 of modern gaming. Microsoft will have a 6 million console head start on Wii and PS3, but since Microsoft can't do well in one territory (Japan), that's reason enough why I don't think Xbox 360 will be #1.

There's a great chance it'll be a close second, or possibly end up like Xbox and GameCube (practically neck and neck in world wide sales, with either being a distant 2nd or distant 3rd).

I'd like to see Xbox 360 do better in Japan and maybe it will with titles like Blue Dragon and DOA Xtreme 2, but it's an uphill battle.

PS3 has the backing os PS2 on its side and that's a huge leg up for Sony. Even though their launch will be shakey, they will likely rebound.

The question is, can Nintendo capitalize now on Sony's shipment mistakes by annahilating the PS3 with their Wii this Fall and making a big impact in the industry?

Then there's the whole, Wii60 combo or PSWii combo that are a lot more likely to occur for most gamers than a PS60 team up.

From the early look of things, I think Nintendo has the best shot at beint #1 this time around. They have had tremendous DS and DS Lite success, they'll have Zelda which'll be a great launch title, they've got the shipments down, the price down (literally), and the best pre-launch support by the media.

Japan will come down to Wii or PS3. That's the only thing almost guaranteed to happen. After all, Xbox 360 has sold around 150,000 units in Japan after 10 months of availability. Nintendo's Wii will sell 4 times that number in its first day.

It's going to be a REALLY good war. And who knows, maybe Xbox 360 can pull of top global sales without Japan's contribution, but that'll be very tough.
Paul Gale
1up.com

Reply to #85:
Just to mention regular RPG's, the Wii has 4 new ones that I know of in development.

Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles : The Crystal Bearers
Dragon Quest (cannot recall title)
Fire Emblem
Tales of _____ (don't recall them stating a title, but recalling how good Symphonia was on Gamecube, I look forward to it)

Marvel Alliance is an "action rpg" btw, although it's coming out for all 3 new consoles.

The other 4 rpg's I mentioned are currently only for the Wii, last time I checked. :p

#48 and #71, very interesting viewpoints/theories.

I will save this article and posted 4 years from now...

okay. so, the official predictive word for this console generation is this:

after each of the 3 consoles have been on the market for at least 3 years (aka holiday 2009):
- the 360 will have made the most gross revenue. (software and hardware)
- the wii will have sold the most units. (hardware only)
- the ps3 will have < 20% of the market. (18% give or take of total market hardware units sold)

as i said over here:
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/10/02/playstation-3-magazine-hands-on-video-with-ps3/2#c2307964

m3mnoch.

mykie says (Msg #21):
[[...Also, if history is any indicator, never has a single company won 3 times in a row, nor has anyone "come back from the dead" like Nintendo aims to...

...All's I know is that you'd have to be some kind of super-genius to accurately predict the outcome of this generation war. I'm on the edge of my seat!]]

Then call me a super-genius. I know how the next-generation will turn out.
And see the problem with conventional wisdom is that real life is rarely conventional.

"never has a single company won three times in a row"
"nor has anyone 'come back from the dead' like Nintendo aims to"

1st thing: Japan is the capital of the game industry. Whoever wins Japan wins the world because the whole world has been in love with Japanese gaming since the 1980's & for good reason (Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, Dig-Dug, Super Mario Bros., Final Fantasy, Double Dragon, Street Fighter, Pokémon, Dance Dance Revolution).
That's where the game developers who come up with such vivid & distinct ideas reside.

Microsoft is so far a non-factor in that region. The only real competitors are Sony & Nintendo, two Japan-based companies. Overall Nintendo (not Sony) is the marketshare champion when you count all of their gaming ventures. Nintendo's handhelds like DS & GBA have enormous sales. In the home console front, however, Sony has the lead in marketshare with the PS1 & PS2. Company profitablity is important to factor in because in the case of Sega if you don't keep up the proper finances you can no longer continue to make game consoles. R & D is expensive.
Having a lead on marketshare that doesn't result in great profits will eventually leave you like a man whose steroids have worn off & now are ravaging the body.

Sony has more pies to pluck from than singularly focused Nintendo. Sony makes all kinds of things & own all kinds of content: Sony Electronics, Sony Music, Sony Pictures. This is bad for Sony in that they have less agility as a company. If one business sector goes bad it affects all the other sectors eventually. Nintendo only has one business sector: games. They play it smarter because they can't afford to make giant mistakes. It allows them to take chances & gambits which is why most innovation goes on over there. So they put their 100% into gamemaking with no distraction as in the case with Sony which may have to support sagging sectors with successful ones.

The potential money edge gives Sony an advantage to fail & recover easier but it also lends them to wasteful practices. Nintendo being totally dependent on making their products sell have over the years developed an airtight business model that has them seeing eye to eye financially with the Goliaths of MS & Sony.

OK so the fight in Japan is between Sony & Nintendo. In the case of the DS Nintendo has buried the PSP. As a result the 3rd party (who always goes where the money/audience is because they have to sell games to profit) gathers around Nintendo leaving PSP with the scraps. Final Fantasy III should have naturally went to the PSP, right? PS has the main Final Fantasy franchise, don't they?
Wii being designed out of the same mentality as DS was will do the same in Japan, I guarantee.
Meaning that in Japan, gaming = Nintendo. Sony will lose much of its 3rd party support in the process.
Since Nintendo is great at making their OWN games, 3rd party returning helps to fill out their volume making them the popular system of choice.
I say it all the time: 1st party + 2nd party + 3rd party = Nintendo's party.
That is the only real thing hampering Nintendo in console realm. They need volume. They'll get with the Wii. Which means they reclaim the lead both in profit naturally but ALSO in marketshare. And the momentum will carry them out all generation long.

In the "West" Sony has Microsoft to deal with asWELL as Nintendo. Wii will captivate folks in the West as well. It may not be nearly complete a takeover as in Japan but it will be VERY substantial giving them a lead in these regions as well. Microsoft throws off Sony's equillibrium being that the systems are similar which means 3rd party looking to make money in the western markets may choose XBox 360 over PS3 as their go-to guy.

Since Sony's conquered in the East & compromised in the West by Nintendo with Microsoft they stand a chance of bowing out with all the expenditure put into this costly project that we're told to be getting at a loss to them at $600. 3rd party is all Sony has to count on. Unlike Nintendo their 1st party doesn't move the systems or anchor the platform. They sell nice but they are just a game in a big crowd of games.

Microsoft stands to gain the most from getting some 3rd party support because it will enrich their so-would-say bland library giving a nice mix of western & eastern gaming.
That and the fact that Sony is so short-supplied & leaving Europe wide open for takeover means Microsoft can court those neglected regions for loyalty. Europe, Australia, & the rest of the PAL territories have longed to be treated on par with the Americas & Japan regions.

Sony's price scares the casuals off, their business with Lik-Sang (and possibly soon Play-Asia) makes the hardcores angry, the PR gaffes don't help matters, the short supply makes people anxious. It just spells certain doom for Sony. And people think they can count on those Sony exclusives (FFXII/XIII, MGS4) to stay exclusive. If Sony doesn't make them, NEVER count on a franchise staying with them if things start to get rocky. I don't care what you hear. If the system doesn't sell or they don't think it will sell the 3rd party will take their games elsewhere.

WWE Smackdown Vs. Raw 2007 is the latest in a long series that was always a Sony exclusive. THIS generation it debuts on the XBox 360 platform and curiously shows up on the PSP & PS2 platforms. Why skip PS3 if it's coming out near the PS3's launch? Woulda been a killer launch title. Why GO to the 360 in the first place being that this series had been with the Playstation since the Playstation 1??
That's your sign of things to come.
Square-Enix is now making buzz about Kingdom Hearts not necessarily being a PS3 exclusive. Does that bode for their other franchises as well?

The only thing you can count on in this industry is that Nintendo's franchises will ALWAYS be on Nintendo. Everything else in this industry is up for grabs.

This bunk about only the PS3 can handle certain games...Ha! If that PS3 becomes a lemon, the designers will adjust accordingly. They don't want all that hard work to go to waste taking their franchise down with it.

Last year before all the systems came out I made a prediction of how the industry would turn out which has largely come true.
"Future of Next-Generation of Gaming" (11-5-2005)
http://tinyurl.com/nqdcp

BUT I made one big error in not factoring in how Sony would sabotage themselves. It was unfathomable to me that a company would make every opportunity to throw away their momentum but that's exactly what has happened. I surely didn't see them dominating this go 'round but I knew the momentum of the PS2 would not make them an easy pushover. Hmph. Next time I will factor in self-sabotage. I've learned something new about the gaming industry this year.

This is how it's going down, mykie & others.

Japan:
[1st] Nintendo
[2nd] Sony (distant 2nd)
[3rd] Microsoft (can become 2nd if Japan abandons Sony)

Rest of world:
[1st] Nintendo
[2nd] Microsoft (a bit behind but not as distant as Sony in Japan)
[3rd] Sony (Europe will not forget their treatment in the face of two powerful available competitors)

If you read what's going on correctly, you can make bankable predictions on how the generation will turn out. Of course there are your unpredictables like sleeper hit games & out-of-the-blue powersellers as well the contrariness of the human being. But you can still tell the general direction by just observing the current scene with a little history & a vision of the future.

John Lucas

hello #47. are you blind? do you realize that when not if, the 360 hits its 10 mil mark in march that everything they make is going to be profit?? and has anybody thought of just infiltrating this hd market with small arms(mediocre games) to get ppl interested and pull out the big guns just when ppl are wondering when theyll get their ps3s? by the time most ppl get their ps3's
xbox will be making a profit
keep bringing out bombs like halo3, gears of war content, and other great games and while the multi platform games come out what will ppl do when they dont have a ps3 to play them on? they go and buy a 360 at the cheaper used system price and be all good and gravy. how can you say that the 360 will be shut down by sony. remember ms is david and sony is goliath and we all kno how that went right?? also to say that the ps3s games will become better with time and not mention that the same thing will happen with the 360 is just ludacris. not to mention that it is a lot easier to develop for the 360. kojima has sed it himself but its a shame that hes bound by exclusivity or else we would see mgs4 on the 360. and by the way i think the 360 controller is already way better than the sixaxis. think about it, when playing a game will you feel comfortable knowing that you have to sit still in order to play it so you dont risk crashing into sumthin jus cuz of the motion sensing? i think sonys game plan is stupid and this is coming from some one that was religous on the ps2 and all the games they had. i didnt by an xbox until halo 2 came out, and that was the only game i bought for it.

i honestly thing this war is over for sony b4 it began for them. as soon as they began their decisions on the system.

"It's going to be a REALLY good war. And who knows, maybe Xbox 360 can pull of top global sales without Japan's contribution, but that'll be very tough."

while i can appreciate the "winning japan" theory, it doesn't hold any weight in modern times. the rest of the world has figured out what gaming is. believe it or not, the world-wide market is crazy huge.

north america's and europe's video game markets together are 5 times the size of japan's gaming market. japan is a distant third in terms of dollars spent.

http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2005/12/08/video-game-markets/

even with all that, japan only has 125 million people. the united states? 300 million. europe? 726 million.

and, since europe is the fastest growing video game market in the world right now, the correct statement would be: whoever wins europe wins this next generation.

so, how is sony treating europe these days? i thought so.

no. "winning japan" means as much as "winning canada and south korea."

wait a minute.

no it doesn't.

canada + south korea gaming dollars actually add up to MORE than japan's total gaming dollars.... my bad.

m3mnoch.

In short, gameplay, combined technologies, user friendly "new" horizons. Wii wins BIG!!!
Gameplay is what it is all about. I am an original videogame player. I am 41 years old and seen and played almost all of the major titles on just about any system you can name from the late 70's to present. Now, I'm a dad and have carefully saved all of those games and systems and my children, wife and I always go for the most fun gameplay games again and again. Heck, for example; we all have played super realistic baseball sims and enjoy them but we all go back to RBI Baseball (oldschoolers know it) and spend equal time on that one too.
User friendly! The quick learning curve is all important. Who wants to spend 80 plus hours to begin to master the gameplay subtle techniques. Wii wins again.
Combined technologies like the internet channel and DS wireless connections are what really pushed the Wii way past the others. I am quite computer savy and have always had state of the art computers and audio visual technology in my home. With that in mind, I have found it a pain in the @$$ to use my HD monitor or any monitor other than my laptop's or desktop's to use to surf the net while using a remote to navigate. According to all reviews Nintendo has nailed this one dead on.
Grandma, kids, wife and I can all use the Wii for a multitude of reasons and Wii(we) will use it often.