Too soon: No plans for next PlayStation at E3, Hirai says

@A Sandwich
Coupled with a PS11 commercial!

@Jing2487

On top of economical issues, I for whatever reason feel a next gen of systems so soon wouldn't nearly sell as well as say the xbox 360 or ps3 (for the most part) did when they were initially released.

I guess it is the major flood of current gen game systems on store shelves and in households that makes me wonder if anyone would even be ready to drop another say $400-500 on the next gen. At least I feel that it seems that way for maybe the next 2 years or so.

I guess what I am trying to say is maybe most people would end up keeping their current systems, like the ps2 status, and wait a couple years before spending money on next gen. That is always the better decision anyways as we all know the hell that was ps3 with its updates every week or so upon initial release.

PC game software sales have passed console sales for the first time in 7 years, so obviously it's not doing them any favors pretending their hardware is still relevant in 2012. My iPhone has more horsepower.

This is the nature of technology. Developers are already complaining and doing PC ports they wouldn't have ever bothered with 4 years ago.

@Jing2487

While it doesn't mean much for me cause I'd buy the PS4 and the WiiU regardless, if they wait too long after WiiU and the next Xbox(all 3 of which would have about the same specs anyway), it'll get forgoten before it gets released, as most of the non-fanboys will buy whatever comes first.

@Godslegion I agree with the analysis, but "so soon"? This gen is already 6+ years along. Even being generous and including the Dreamcast as the start of the previous gen and the "start" of this gen being the launch of the Wii/PS3, that's only 7 years. ~5-6 years has been the industry average since the NES.

@houser

Understandable but regardless of past generations only lasting 5-6 years, it seems we have hit more of a tech ceiling, at least visually, for the moment (like I said maybe 2 more years and we may see some VERY minor improvement)

I just see no real progression in actual aesthetics of games, and generally speaking, if you sit back and look at the big picture, the next gen doesn't come about until the visuals can make a big jump to the next, more realistic or beautiful level. I just don't see that yet.

My question to Sony, Microsoft, and their developers is this: Why don't we hold off on a new system for a while, until the majority of games actually look even better. Why can't we get to a point where all studios put in the effort to make movement look as fluid as BF3, or faces look as good as LA Noire, or graphics look as lush and beautiful as what KZ2 brought forth or what Uncharted brings?

Lets get to that step, then lets progress to next gen once ALL of our games are worth the $60. I am looking at you too COD franchise!

@Jing2487

"While you will get those initial sales I dont think any console right now will be a runaway success."

Ok, have you even seen the worldwide sales of Wii?

If Wii U were even HALF as successful, then it would be a resounding success. Hell, it would be the sales numbers of the 360 or PS3!

@Jing2487

Except... "Hirai is sticking to the 10-year life cycle for the PlayStation 3 and currently sees no need to replace it."

Am I the only one in this country who has gone through two PS3s within three years? Where's my "10 year life cycle"?! PS2 still works, 11 years now....

@jsx92
Yep your iPhone is 'magically' and all the other things the nice man in the advert tells you.

@Granger
The Last Story is a Wii game :/

@Vic Fontaine
Yes. Yes it is.

...your point?

@PANdaRUS

Wasn't the PS3 coming out way after the 360 a big contributing factor to the PS3 losing a lot of ground to the 360? Given that I would think that Sony would want to, at least, match the release date of the next XBox.

@PANdaRUS

Sony constantly updates the XMB, they just don't visually overhaul it. It maintains the same easy-to-use interface, but they add features all the time. Including Move support (it's in there).

The problem with the Move itself is that it's a hardcore version of the Wii, something casual players likely already have. They see the Kinect as something new and different, whereas the Move is simply a more expensive version of the Wii with fewer games.

@PANdaRUS
I personally feel the systems we have now reached their full stride about a year or two ago. I say this because we already have games that can pretty much max out ps3, for example the later Uncharted series, and others. And with the majority of developers sticking to multiplatform publishing, I doubt much will change as far as realm of graphics. Performance? maybe it will become better, and probably.

The only realm I think the systems can expand upon now are peripherals and added services/features, most of which end up being worthless and simple gimmicks, aside from movie/video streaming or music playing. But again, these few aspects are for the majority already included, thus my reasoning that these systems today don't have much else to bring, besides new games to play.

But I don't see where today's games can even be expanded to say greater graphics and visuals.

I feel we are currently in a lull, and the only foreseeable frontier to conquer next is game performance, as in no more crashing, faster loading, better online, etc.

Move and kinect may have some promising features, for example watch the vid on Ghost Recon Future Soldier with kinect, looks awesome. Otherwise I hate to say it but a few moves of my thumb are still a lot more easier/convenient than having to move my body or hand to navigate a menu.

@bigwhiteyeti

"It maintains the same easy-to-use interface, but they add features all the time"

Except new visualizers, a better browser, friends list grouping, etc.
I've had a ps3 since it came out and i'm at the point where the XMB is "just there". If anything, they really need to refresh the XMB and not just add another icon.

Most likely it means that the PS3 will still be around, selling for $150 with a small shelf section next to or under the PS4 games, mostly consisting of greatest hits titles and an extra controller or two. You know, kind of like the PS2 is now. Or how the PSOne was then.

2013 at the earliest, 2014 sounds like the sure thing though - unless of course, their skipping of E3 is just so they can parade it out at TGS this year.

@bustermachine42069

Not necessarily. The ps2 also operated under the 10 year life cycle concept. However, the ps3 was released during that lifecycle. Sony continued support for the ps2 following the ps3s release. They will probably do similar with ps3/ps4

PS3 won't be at $99 for a long while. PS2 only hit $99 in 2009, two and a half years after the PS3's launch. If anything, we'll see another slim PS3 redesign a year before or the year of the PS4's launch, priced around $150-199.

@ChaseHammerJ
It's not the most pressing matter, but I would like to have consoles that can handle more 1080p, 60FPS titles with ease. It's been annoyingly hard to find proper 1080p titles this generation - hell, a lot of them cut corners and aren't even 720p. The examples that I remember were Halo 3 and the PS3 version of Ghostbusters, although they're hardly isolated cases.

Fortunately, my PC can assuage that issue - but not everyone can afford to build a gaming PC like I did, so it'd be nice to have a console that's of similar caliber.

@ChaseHammerJ
sure they can! More modern shaders, more GPU ram and main system ram, faster processor for better physics, ai, etc, and support for 1080p, as well as enhancements for 120hz and 240hz tv's, just to start.

It would be the same level of jump from the ps2 to the ps3, or the ps1 to the ps2.

@mrantimatter

Yeah the hardware can improve, as it always can even as little as the day a system is released, but as far as visuals go, the graphics could reach pc level, but then what. I don't feel most people would be willing to spend another 400-500 on a next gen console just to up it a tad. People want bang for the buck and if you analyze it, the jump from ps2 to ps3 is probably going to still remain way larger than from ps3/xbox360 to next gen.

Think about it. This gen we have movie streaming, WAY higher graphics, better performance, etc. which are all high improvements over the last gen. I just don't feel the shift to next gen being very soon. Other shifts will dominate for now, for example WiiU and PSVita

@BrianZeluz

you should be shot

@DnScott so wait everybody except for me loves waiting for their consoles to finish downloading updates?

@Shadowbender Exactly, thank you! If Sony and MS kept delaying the unveiling of their new consoles, even as the PC keeps running past the 360 and PS3 in horsepower, those gamers would still say their machines are good enough, we don't need new consoles yet, etc.

But the instant Sony and MS announce their new consoles, these same gamers will froth at the mouth after looking at the tech demos and getting ready to save up for those new systems, no matter the cost.

Its been 6 years for the 360 and 5 years for the PS3, that's a long enough time for a generation to run its course, especially given previous console generations. I am totally ready for a new one. :)

@nerdydesi1

And thank you, kind sir, for agreeing with me!

It a radical thought to think that come November this year, it will have been seven years since the 360 was released. That's unreal. Basic comprehension of what "seven years" means in technology as a whole seems to be absent from far too many people's minds.

@Shadowbender

And how about a correction for my first post: *"...we'll get around to it..."*

@Shadowbender "Imagine what a PCs would be capable of..."
That's a slightly loaded question. What would a $400 PC be capable of? For most people, the answer would be not a lot because they're buying laptops and tablets these days. The growth of the mobile computing sector has given this console generation a little extra breathing room.

I think it's an interesting question to ask if a new console generation really would have the power to wow people at first sight. When this generation came out, people were more impressed by the Wii's waggle factor than the amazing new graphics power of the 360. There's the law of diminishing returns coming into play here.

@Shadowbender Many of these console gamers probably also have smartphones. I ask them, can they imagine still using the original iPhone today? How about the HTC G1, the first Android phone? And the 360 and PS3 are even older than those "relics"!

These consoles have been out for long enough. Can these gamers still have imagined playing the SNES up to 1998/1999? How about the PS2 until 2008/2009?

I guess I'm itching more-so for new consoles due to being a PC gamer, having a rig that blows past these consoles (i7 with dual GTX 480s in SLI) and have to put up with console ports since they dominate the industry. Its nice to play console ports like Skyrim at 1200P and 60fps but I also itch for ground-breaking graphics again like Crysis. Excuse the evil "elitist" in me. Like these 360 and PS3 gamers are never "elitist" towards the Wii, smartphone/tablet gaming, etc. Hypocrites. : /

I'm waiting for new consoles so better graphics can trickle down to the PC side as well. But I'll likely buy the next consoles as well.

@nerdydesi1

Great post.

People have gotten so caught up in the release of new gimmicks or major shifts in technology that it's almost as if they believe that if there isn't something like that then an upgrade isn't needed. This gen brought us HD consoles and waggle, what will a new console bring us?

It doesn't need to provide us some new "thing" like HD or motion control to be a major upgrade. The SNES didn't bring any new "thing" that the NES didn't have.

People are caught up in this line of "how much better can it really get"? You could have said that about every generation prior to actually getting the next one. People were plenty happy with the PS2 and didn't "need" a new console, but look at how much better the 360/PS3 are compared to going back and playing the PS2/Xbox now.

The BF3 example is a good one. On a newly upgraded console that game probably could have been full on 64v64 on huge maps with more vehicles and better graphics.

Plus, if nothing else, I *really* want Sony to have a chance to start over fresh and build their system architecture with their online network in mind. It's clear that they initially thought the online network thing like XBL/PSN was just a fad and they were throwing the PSN out there as a bullet point to counteract XBL. They got caught with their pants down and now they're stuck with an un-unified structure that forces them to hack their network together (fake in-game invites) in best-case scenarios and miss out on features entirely (cross-game voice chat) in others.

It's not time, money, or lack of ideas that are holding the PSN back. It's the PS3. Bring on the PS4 and let them build it with the PSN as a priority from the start and I think the quality differences between XBL/PSN will vanish.

Excellent thought over here. I should have elaborated on the PC bit, my mistake. But you're well-aware of my meaning.

I suppose my anxiety to see what's next is most heavily embroidered by the fact that I know, we know, that the power IS THERE. At the risk of sounding like a corrupted antagonist, why don't we try to access that? Of course, money is why, but it's so infuriating to know something so awesome lies right in front of us, and we just pass it up and say "Eh, I don't feel like it. Not now".

Argh.

@Vcize
With all due respect, I'd like to think that the SNES did offer a few things the NES didn't.

All the graphic rotation, Mode 7 graphics and what not allowed for titles that simply wouldn't have worked as well on its predecessor (Super Mario Kart comes to mind - sure, it COULD have played like Outrun, Pole Position, Rad Racer or similar, but it's arguably better off for having an actual, visible track rather than a straight road into the horizon, that occasionally bends).

The extra buttons definitely made some genres work a heck of a lot better - fighting games, in particular. (I haven't really researched much into this, but knowing how other consoles support their controllers, I'd honestly be unsurprised if there wasn't any room in the controller input interface to support more buttons - an entire revision would be necessary. Either way, playing a fighting game with just two buttons sounds a bit... limited, really.)

Also, the support for on-cart upgrade chips definitely worked in its favor, allowing for some slightly-less-rudimentary 3D games, as well (Star Fox, Doom, some effects in Yoshi's Island). I know the Famicom had this to an extent (Konami, in particular, loved using third-party audio chips - look at Castlevania 3's Famicom equivalent, Akumajou Densetsu, which has much better audio than its US counterpart, or Lagrange Point, which almost sounds like a Genesis game), but the *NES* didn't have this feature, so it's yet another step up.

I'd also argue that the 4-layer parallax could've been used to produce some interesting gimmicks simply not possible on the NES, but to be perfectly honest I can't think of a single use as such that went beyond "let's make the backgrounds prettier", "let's add some weather effects" or similar.

That being said, and this isn't directed at you in particular at this point, just because WE can't really think of anything to add to the next generation, doesn't mean the console developers haven't been wracking their brains about this same thing for the past several years. I mean, the 3DS was based on an idea that Nintendo had kicking around for 15+ years. I'm sure Sony and Microsoft probably have some similar concepts in their R&D departments, too (after all, Microsoft heavily improved the Xbox Live infrastructure on top of adding HD graphic fidelity, and then came out with Kinect several years after THAT, so it wasn't just a straight graphics update)... Although I'd probably be fine with a straight visual upgrade (more 1080p, 60 FPS titles would be nice), I'd be very surprised if that's strictly all they're going to shoot for.

@Vcize

"This gen brought us HD consoles and waggle, what will a new console bring us"

3D Augmented Virtual Reality. You will be able to see your game using special glasses like these: http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/11/lumus-see-through-wearable-display-hands-on/

A guy can dream right?

@Shadow Hog

That was kind of my point. Just because there aren't any major mainstream upgrades like HD doesn't mean that there aren't a million more intricate things that make a huge difference.

Because the current gen brought us such mainstream, immediately visible upgrades like HD and motion controls people have forgotten that the majority of console updates have been mostly behind the scenes stuff that makes a huge difference in the long run, even if it's not something you can tangibly place on a bullet point list like "supports HD resolutions!".

@nerdydesi1

i agree wholeheartedly with what you say as i am also a PC gamer/ PS3 owner as well. I would love to see that kind of power finally be displayed on the Console.

However, but my biggest issue right now is that the creative potential has not been tapped in these current gen consoles. I dont care how great their graphics look if there's no creativity behind them then its not relevant in my eyes, Devs shouldnt be bitching over hardware limitations they should be finding more creative ways to utilize what they have at their disposal, I have yet to run into an okami or Shadows of the colossus or anything remotely close to comparable to them on the PS3. Until i see anything of that nature, i can just keep playing on the PC for better graphics i personally dont need a new console.

Back when the PS2 was dying the last few games it put out before its true demise (6 years, the last 4 years of its "so called" life cycle it was just a rotting corpse it truly sucked ) the system put out megatons and went out with a bang.PSone, SNES, and even the DREAMCAST all went out with a bang each with their own set of diverse unique games that im sure EVERYONE can and will always remember.

the 360 and PS3 i wont deny has had a good run so far this gen, there is still so much that's missing from the two that the previous gen consoles provided and i am still waiting for that "something" to finally kick in.

@Negatron

You'd have to be crazy to think they're not all prototyping new systems.